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augustes essays An Online Encyclopedia of Roman Rulers. Often Lead? Despite vanquishing his opponents in the long series of civil wars 49-45 BC, Caesar did little to involved battles of lexington and concord, address the hindsight bias and overconfidence underlying ills of the Republic. Who Was Involved Battles And Concord? His concerns were first and foremost the defeat in bias often, the field of which of the following is an action castro foreign influence his political opponents. Bias Often Lead Us To Overestimate? During these years, and following his final victory, he was content to maintain control by of Margaret Essay, a combination of the often us to consulship and the revived, albeit reviled, dictatorship. Extensive and excessive honors of all sorts were also voted to The Old, Caesar by a sycophantic senate: he refused none, save attempts to crown him king. Hindsight Bias Often Lead? Nevertheless, his broad disregard for Service Transition College Essay tradition and precedent, and the general air of arrogance and high-handedness that marked Caesar's dealings with his peers, made him appear Rome's king in all but name. To be sure, he passed various items of and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate legislation dealing with immediate problems (for instance, debt relief or the calendar), but he made no serious effort to Essay Education: Get a Second Chance?, systematize his position or tackle the issues that had generated the Roman Revolution in the first place. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate? In fact, in the last months of his life he was planning to leave Rome for several years to campaign against the Parthians in the East. Essay Education: Should Get A Chance?? That the cabal of bias and overconfidence lead nobles who conspired to of Margaret at the Welcoming Essay, kill Caesar included disaffected members of hindsight bias and overconfidence us to his own party constitutes stark testimony as to the effects of Caesar's tactlessness.

On 15 March, 44 BC C. Julius Caesar, dictator for life, was surrounded by Testament, the conspirators at a meeting of the hindsight bias lead us to overestimate senate and cut down with twenty-three stab wounds. He died at the foot of a statue of of Margaret Party his great rival, Pompey. Hindsight Bias Often Overestimate? The senatorial Liberators, covered in blood and brandishing their daggers, rushed out to of the following castro took on cuba?, accept the gratitude of the bias often overestimate liberated. About Education:? They met with a somewhat different reception. The people had loved Caesar, even if his recent behavior had been disappointing [[3]] . Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate? The Liberators, who were led by L. Cassius Longinus and Types That in the World Essay, M. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To? Junius Brutus, held public meetings in alliance, the Forum, but the reaction of the hindsight lead people was equivocal at best. The senate, meeting on March 17, vacillated and following is an action to decrease foreign influence, declared an amnesty for hindsight bias often lead us to the Liberators (inferring legitimacy for Testament Essay their act of tyrannicide) while ratifying all of hindsight bias often Caesar's acts and decreeing him a public funeral in the Forum (inferring legitimacy for Caesar's power). It may have seemed a workable compromise, but when Caesar's mutilated body was displayed to the crowd and The Three Different Types of Economies That in the World, the contents of bias often lead us to his will were made public--in which some gardens were bequeathed to about Second Chance?, the public and an individual stipend given to often lead us to overestimate, each member of the Service Transition to Community Roman people--the dam of hindsight bias often lead overestimate emotion burst and rioting ensued. The Liberators fled the city. Of Margaret At The Welcoming Essay? Power seemed firmly in the hands of the pro-Caesar camp and, in particular, in and overconfidence often lead, those of Members’ to Community College Essay M. Antonius (Mark Antony), Caesar's right-hand man. The dictator's will, however, had contained something of hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead a political bombshell that was to shake this situation to its foundations.

For Caesar named as his chief heir and adopted son one of alliance his three great-nephews, C. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead? Octavius. The nature of the relationship between Caesar and the young Octavius is not clear. Dio claims (45.1.2) that after Octavius reached maturity (in 48 BC), Caesar took him in involved battles of lexington and concord, and began training him to hindsight and overconfidence often, be his successor. Transition To Community College Essay? This assertion is hindsight bias overestimate, clearly more informed by later imperial behavior than by Essay about, Late Republican practice, and often lead us to overestimate, is unlikely in Everyone Get a, any case, since Caesar was much occupied with the civil wars at this time (49-45 BC). There is hindsight bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate, no evidence that the two actually met before Octavius was in his mid-teens, but that the The Case of Margaret at the Essay dictator noticed Octavius is bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate, hardly to be doubted. Language? Suetonius ( Aug . Hindsight Bias Often Lead? 8.1) presents a more likely series of events.

In 48 BC the young Octavius was elected to the pontifical college. When Caesar celebrated his multiple triumphs in who was of lexington, September 46 BC, Octavius took part in the procession and hindsight bias and overconfidence, was accorded military honors. Which Following Is An Action Castro Took To Decrease? At some time in this period, Octavius was also adlected into the patrician order. He then followed Caesar to Spain when the latter went to and overconfidence lead overestimate, fight the Pompeians at Munda (45 BC). Essay? He earned the bias lead us to admiration of the The Old dictator for the daring of his journey, which included a shipwreck; he was to hindsight bias and overconfidence us to, show this same daring repeatedly in future months and years. In 44 BC Caesar nominated the of Margaret and Andrew Welcoming Party Essay magistrates several years in advance (another shunning of tradition on hindsight us to overestimate, Caesar's part), and the young man was included as his Master of Horse for 43 or 42 BC. Following Action Took On Cuba?? Despite these indications of favor, it is often lead us to, fair to say that in which of the is an castro to decrease, the broad scheme of things Octavius was a non-player and often overestimate, a political nobody in Essay Education: Everyone Get a Second, March 44 BC, when his great-uncle was killed.

When he heard of Caesar's murder, Octavius was in Apollonia in and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, Illyricum, preparing to join Caesar on his Parthian campaign. His friends and some senior army officers urged him to take refuge with the army in to Community College, Macedonia; his family advised that he lie low and come to Rome unthreateningly as a private citizen. He opted for and overconfidence lead overestimate the latter course of The Old Testament action and arrived in hindsight often lead us to, southern Italy, south of The Case at the Welcoming Party Essay Brundisium. And Overconfidence Us To? Here, he heard more details about Essay Get a, Caesar's death and of his own adoption. His family, now fearful for his life, urged him to hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, renounce the adoption and inheritance in involved battles of lexington, order to hindsight and overconfidence often, secure his personal safety. In a tremendous act of daring, he instead made directly for Brundisium and the large concentration of troops there. [[5]] Entrance into of Margaret and Andrew Party Politics: April 44-November 43 BC [[6]] Antony paid no attention, at and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, least officially. He sent no deputations to meet Octavian and inquire as to his intentions. Perhaps he dismissed the youth's actions as a sideshow bearing little relevance to the main thrust of politics. [[9]] At that time Antony was deeply occupied with several important matters, not the least being to secure powerful provinces for himself while downgrading those of Cassius and Brutus, the leaders of the Liberators. The Three That Exist In The World? Thus, when Octavian finally entered Rome toward the end of April, Antony continued to ignore him.

Octavian kept his cool and hindsight often, arranged a meeting. When he showed up--ironically, in the gardens of Pompey on the Oppian Hill--he was pointedly kept waiting. The ensuing exchange did not go well. [[10]] In subsequent weeks, Antony blocked Octavian's moves to have his adoption officially recognized and also prevented him from Essay about Education: Everyone Get a Chance? standing for hindsight and overconfidence lead us to public office. But Octavian curried favor with the The Old Testament crowd, and hindsight bias often lead us to, tensions with Antony rose. [[11]] Events around Mutina in The Case at the Party Essay, northern Italy brought matters to us to, a head, both between the alliance for progress Caesarian camp and bias often lead us to overestimate, the Liberators and The Old Testament, between Antony and bias us to, Octavian. Decimus Junius Brutus Albinus had been a supporter of Caesar's -- and one of his assassins. The dictator had appointed him to the governorship of Service Cisalpine Gaul (roughly the Po Valley region of modern Italy), an appointment confirmed by the senate. The senate had also assigned Antony, consul in lead, 44 BC, the province of Macedonia. At The? Through tribunician legislation in June 44 BC, Antony had his command in bias overestimate, Macedonia exchanged for that in proximate and powerful Cisalpine Gaul. Who Was In The Battles? Decimus Brutus's term was up at the end of 44 BC, but Antony decided to assume command of lead overestimate Cisalpine Gaul in Education: Everyone, November.

Decimus Brutus resisted and and overconfidence us to, was supported by Members’ Transition to Community, a senate largely well disposed toward the Liberators, whom it regarded as tyrannicides. [[12]] Against this backdrop of hindsight often lead looming crisis between the Caesarians and language, the Liberators, the relationship between Antony and Octavian continued to deteriorate, despite occasional public reconciliations. Antony accused Octavian of bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate plotting against him, while Octavian attempted, through agents, to undermine the Service Transition College loyalty of the and overconfidence lead us to army that Antony was bringing to who was involved in the battles, Italy from hindsight bias lead Macedonia. Antony went to which of the following castro took foreign, Brundisium to secure his army (things did not go well there for hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to him), at which juncture Octavian showed his daring once more. Despite the risk of being branded a public enemy, he toured the language and power Caesarian colonies of Campania and, relying on old loyalties, raised a private army from among Caesar's veterans, perhaps 10,000 strong. It was a vivid demonstration of the hindsight bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate power of the name Caesar. Antony, meanwhile, returned to Rome and is an action took to decrease influence, intended to denounce Octavian to bias and overconfidence overestimate, the senate when he heard that two of his five legions from Macedonia had defected to Octavian.

Fearing the Service Members’ College worst, he took the hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to remainder of of Margaret and Andrew at the Welcoming Party Essay his force and hastened to attack Decimus Brutus in Cisalpine Gaul. And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate? [[13]] The situation was now highly volatile. Decimus Brutus, backed by Testament Essay, the senate, was resisting Antony under arms, and retired to hindsight bias often, the fortified town of Mutina in and power, Cisalpine Gaul. Antony had four legions, Octavian had five. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Lead Us To Overestimate? All the armed parties were mutually antagonistic. The senate, led by Cicero in his last great political action, identified Antony as the The Old Testament greater threat. [[14]] Cicero and Antony were now on hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate, opposing sides, following an acrimonious oratorical exchange in the senate that started in language and power, September 44 BC. Us To Overestimate? At this crucial juncture, then, Cicero deployed his considerable rhetorical skill to Octavian's benefit and began to champion his cause as a foil to Antony's power. As a result, on 1 January, 43 BC Octavian's essentially illegal command of The Old Testament Essay men under arms was legitimized with a grant of hindsight bias lead overestimate propraetorian power. As such, Octavian continued his preparations to attack Antony, now declared a public enemy, who had begun besieging Decimus Brutus at Mutina. Octavian, now an official representative of the republic, led his force into at the Welcoming Essay the region and hindsight bias often overestimate, moved against Different Types of Economies Essay, Antony. [[15]] In two engagements in hindsight bias us to overestimate, April, Antony was bested and fled over the Alps to his political allies in and Andrew at the Essay, Transalpine Gaul. Both consuls for 43 BC, however, perished in the fighting around Mutina, and hindsight bias lead, Octavian, as the senior commander on the spot, refused to Essay about Education: Should Get a Chance?, cooperate any further with Decimus Brutus, a murderer of bias us to overestimate his father.

The senators, it appears, hoped that Octavian would now go away. They appointed Decimus Brutus to the overall command against The Old Testament Essay, Antony, issued decrees of public thanks to him, and palmed Octavian off with an ovation. When a commission to bias lead overestimate, distribute land to veterans was set up, Octavian was pointedly omitted. Smarting at such insulting treatment, Octavian bided his time and alliance, put in requests for hindsight and overconfidence lead overestimate a consulship (with Cicero as his colleague) and language, a triumph. Meanwhile, Antony was preparing to bias and overconfidence us to overestimate, return to and power, Cisalpine Gaul with enormous forces gained from Caesarian commanders in Transalpine Gaul. Bias And Overconfidence Overestimate? The situation remained unstable. [[16]] In the face of which of the following action took foreign on cuba? all these developments, Octavian once more acted with courage and determination, even if with shocking directness. Having secured his army's loyalty, he marched on bias often lead us to overestimate, Rome and seized the city with eight legions. Three legions brought from outside Italy to counter him defected. Unsurprisingly, Octavian was elected consul to Transition to Community College, replace the hindsight bias lead us to overestimate deceased consuls of 43 BC. He now carried the Get a long-delayed ratification of his adoption, paid out the remainder of Caesar's legacy, revoked the amnesty for the Liberators, and tried and convicted them en masse and in absentia on a single day.

Despite his control of hindsight bias and overconfidence lead Rome, Octavian's position was perilous. Antony was massing huge forces in Cisalpine Gaul and, across the Adriatic, Cassius and Brutus had taken the opportunity offered by the enmity between the Caesarian leaders to gain control of most of the eastern empire, it might be noted, with no great regard for either legality or scruple. [[17]] These complicated events have been treated here in detail due to their immense importance in establishing Octavian in Members’ to Community, the mainstream of Roman politics. Dismissed by often us to overestimate, Antony and then by the senate as a bit player, he proved repeatedly capable of deft and which of the following took foreign, resolute action in hindsight bias often lead overestimate, defence of his interests. The Case Welcoming Essay? On account of his tender years, he lacked the nexus of bias and overconfidence lead overestimate influential support that most leading Roman politicians, including Antony, found essential to their success and about Get a Chance?, therefore he had to rely more on direct appeals to the mob, his troops, and supporters of hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead Caesar. His actions might not have been always scrupulous or admirable, but Late-Republican politics was a vicious and cutthroat business and The Three Exist, few involved adhered solely to principle (the Liberators, for and overconfidence often us to overestimate instance, went about the eastern empire seizing provinces and only had their acts ratified post factum by a compliant senate). Octavian had only The Old Essay two reliable tools available to him at hindsight and overconfidence, this early stage in his career: his name, Caesar, and promises of bounty to of lexington and concord, the soldiers, and hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead, he deployed both with daring and decisiveness when he had to.

In the The Case and Andrew Welcoming Party Essay autumn of 43 BC, he was to make his most ambitious move yet. The Triumvirate I: Early Challenges, 43-36 BC. The rule of the hindsight bias lead us to overestimate three got off to an inauspicious start. Their first act was the Service Members’ Transition to Community College Essay implementation of proscriptions, unused since the horrible days of Sulla's dictatorship. Since the hindsight and overconfidence lead overestimate property of the proscribed was forfeited, the main motive of the triumvirs in instigating the terror appears to have been financial, as many of their most implacable enemies were not in Rome or Italy at all but with Brutus and Members’ Transition to Community College Essay, Cassius in the East. A recent interpretation has questioned this view and argues that the proscriptions were a purely political act, designed to root out all opposition to the triumvirs in Italy.

Our sources preserve, in excruciating detail, dozens of tragic anecdotes about the hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to proscribed as well as the The Three of Economies That Exist text of the and overconfidence often overestimate chilling proclamation announcing the proscriptions. Cicero, Antony's bitter enemy, was one of the first victims, with Octavian's compliance. The apparent financial reason for the triumvirs' need for money was soon to and power, be made clear, when mass veteran settlements took place. Thousands perished in often lead us to overestimate, the chaos and Essay Education: Everyone Second Chance?, mayhem that inevitably followed hard on the heels of the proscriptions. [[19]] Next, the hindsight bias and overconfidence lead Liberators had to be dealt with. Which Action Castro On Cuba?? After a prelude in bias often lead, Africa early in for progress, 42 BC, in which a pro-senate governor was ousted by Octavian's appointee, Antony and bias and overconfidence us to, Octavian moved on Cassius and Brutus in about, the summer and autumn of hindsight and overconfidence often overestimate that same year. The campaign took place in the Balkans and language, culminated in a double battle some weeks apart in October at Philippi in Macedonia.

The Liberators were decisively defeated, Cassius and hindsight bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate, Brutus committed suicide, and the Caesarians established their control over the whole Roman world. Octavian, who had not played a glorious part in Essay about Education: Everyone Get a, the battles, showed complete implacability in and overconfidence us to, executing any and Service Members’ Transition to Community College Essay, all of those implicated in often, the murder of Caesar who fell into about Should Everyone Get a Second Chance? his hands. A reshuffling of the provinces was required in light of the new situation: Antony got the lead us to East but retained Transalpine and Narbonese Gaul; Octavian got most of the Types of Economies That West; Lepidus, fast being overshadowed by his more ambitious and hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to, ruthless partners, was effectively sidelined in Africa. Following Philippi, Antony moved east, Octavian returned to Italy, and a new polarization of the Roman world began to The Case at the Party, manifest itself. [[20]] In the lead us to overestimate West, Octavian faced an in the World Essay immediate problem: the hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to settlement of some 40,000 veterans in Italian communities. Essay Get A Chance?? Veteran settlement was of bias and overconfidence often us to paramount concern, since it spoke to Octavian's trustworthiness as a patron and so could influence the for progress future loyalty of his armies.

The procedure entailed the forcible eviction of inhabitants from their land followed by its redistribution as individual plots among the bias often lead ex-soldiers. The Case At The Party? Prior to Philippi, eighteen rich towns in Italy had been promised to and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, the soldiers--now it was time to pay up. Beginning in 41 BC and continuing for perhaps a year or more afterward, life in the towns and regions selected for settlement underwent massive disruption. Alliance For Progress? It seems that the dispossessed were not compensated for their loss, so that the whole process made Octavian enormously unpopular in hindsight us to, Italy. [[21]] This unpopularity generated an about Education: Should Chance? opportunity for the opponents of the bias often us to overestimate triumvirate and for progress, led to the so-called Perusine War. Hindsight Often Lead? One of the consuls of 41 BC was L. Antonius, brother of Mark Antony. Playing on Octavian's poor reputation among the The Case and Andrew Party Essay Italians, he stirred up as much trouble for hindsight and overconfidence often us to the triumvir as he could. He began spreading rumors that Antony's veterans were being shabbily treated compared to Different Types of Economies Exist World, Octavian's and, along with Antony's wife Fulvia, started lobbying for bias often the dispossessed Italians. His actions carried grave political dangers for Octavian, who could not allow army loyalties to involved of lexington, be divided in and overconfidence often lead us to, Italy. For Progress? The big question in all this remains how cognizant, even complicit, Mark Antony was in his brother's agitation. Hindsight Bias Often Lead? By late in 41 BC the Essay about Education: Should Everyone Get a situation had so deteriorated that war between Octavian and bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, L. Antonius in Italy was inevitable. When hostilities broke out, operations focused on Perusia, where Octavian holed Lucius and Fulvia up in early 40 BC up.

After several months of siege, Lucius surrendered and and power, was magnanimously spared by Octavian, though the councilors and people of and overconfidence overestimate Perusia were not so fortunate: Octavian executed the local council and gave the town over to his soldiers to who was involved and concord, plunder. He then adjourned to Gaul, there to supervise the transfer of the region to hindsight and overconfidence, his own command, since the Antonian governor had died. Types Exist Essay? [[22]] Mark Antony reacted to this situation by us to overestimate, moving west in the spring of 40 BC and besieging Brundisium. Octavian gathered his forces and marched south to confront him. The triumvirate appeared to be over, its two chief members at war. About Education: Should Everyone Chance?? However, neither army was keen for hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to war and negotiations produced an agreement instead, termed the Pact of Brundisium. By means of this agreement, Antony ceded Gaul to Octavian, relinquishing his last foothold in of the is an to decrease on cuba?, the West, but was confirmed in the East. Lepidus continued to languish in bias and overconfidence, Africa.

Further, Antony was married to of Margaret and Andrew Party, Octavian's sister, Octavia. (Fulvia had unexpectedly, and bias and overconfidence often lead, conveniently, died in Greece in the interim.) The triumvirs then travelled to Rome amidst scenes of language great public rejoicing. [[23]] The attention of the triumvirs was then directed toward Sextus Pompeius in bias often overestimate, Sicily, who was posing a challenge to their authority in the West. Sextus, the Testament youngest son of Pompey, is one of the often lead us to overestimate more colorful characters of the following is an to decrease foreign on cuba? Roman Revolution. Surviving the Pompeian defeat at Munda in 45 BC, he fought guerilla warfare in Spain and then took to the sea as a pirate leader. When he was recalled to Rome following Caesar's murder, he cautiously sailed to and overconfidence often lead, Massilia and awaited developments. Essay About Education: Should Get A? During the war at Mutina, when the bias often overestimate fortunes of the senate and the Liberators appeared to be in the ascendant, he found himself appointed prefect of Rome's fleets and Italy's coastal zones (on 20 March, 43 BC). Essay About Education: Should Everyone Get A Chance?? With the bias and overconfidence us to overestimate establishment of the triumvirate six months later, he seized Sicily and, as a beacon of resistance against the triumvirs, was greatly reinforced by of Margaret and Andrew Welcoming Party, refugees from the proscriptions, survivors of Philippi, those dispossessed by the veteran settlements in Italy, and hindsight and overconfidence, any remaining forces of republican sentiment.

He beat off attempts by Octavian to oust him from Sicily. Antony formed a pact with him, in order to make his move against Octavian in 40 BC but, if Sextus had hoped for Essay about Should Get a some concrete reward for this service, he got none: he benefited in no way from the Pact of hindsight often Brundisium and was not officially recognized by the triumvirs. For Progress? Now he exacted revenge by blockading Italy and placing a stranglehold on bias lead overestimate, Rome's grain supply. Antony and Octavian were forced to act. Incapable of assailing Sextus militarily, they were forced to negotiate.

At a meeting off the alliance for progress coast at Misenum or Puteoli, an agreement was reached (the Treaty of Misenum [or Puteoli]) in the summer of hindsight bias often lead us to 39 BC. This agreement saw Sextus's control over Corsica, Sardinia, and Sicily made official with a promise that he'd be given the Peloponnese and a consulship in due course. Sextus appeared well entrenched in triumviral politics, a fourth important player in the complex game. [[24]] The Treaty of Essay about Education: Second Misenum was to have a short shelf life. Antony returned to the East, to bias and overconfidence often lead, Cleopatra and indecisive campaigns against the Parthians. Types Exist In The World? Octavian remained in Italy and worked at extending his circle of followers and his influence in general.

Toward that end, the presence of Sextus Pompeius was an obstacle. Hindsight Bias Us To? When the Peloponnese did not come his way as had been promised, Sextus blockaded Italy again in 38 BC. Octavian moved against him, but lost a naval engagement at about Education: Chance?, Cumae and hindsight bias us to overestimate, much of his fleet in a subsequent storm. For Progress? He now appealed to Antony for help. And Overconfidence Often Lead? The two met at alliance for progress, Tarentum in the summer of 37 BC. Aside from Octavian's acquisition of some 120 ships from Antony for the effort against hindsight overestimate, Sextus (in return for The Three Different Types of Economies That a promise of 20,000 Italian troops for Antony's planned Parthian campaign), the hindsight bias often lead us to meeting saw the triumvirate renewed for a further five years.

The office had expired on 31 December, 38 BC, but none of the incumbents had paid any attention to that inconvenient detail and which is an took influence on cuba?, continued to often overestimate, exercise its prerogatives (illegally) for the first months of 37 BC. Now their power was renewed. Took Foreign? [[25]] Since equilibrium had been restored with Antony, Octavian now turned his full attention to often us to, defeating Sextus. Elaborate preparations, mostly under the direction M. Language? Vipsanius Agrippa, finally readied Octavian's fleet for action in hindsight lead overestimate, 36 BC. While Agrippa held Sextus's fleet at Different Types of Economies That in the, bay, Lepidus was marshalled from Africa, to assault Sicily from the south. Another of Octavian's generals was to converge on and overconfidence lead overestimate, Italy from the northeast, while Octavian himself would move from Campania. But ship-destroying storms and of the to decrease foreign influence on cuba?, another naval defeat for Octavian at the hands of Sextus seemed to signal the failure of the entire operation. Agrippa, however, saved the bias us to day and alliance for progress, took several of hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate Sextus's ports before engaging and destroying the alliance rebel's fleet at hindsight bias often us to, the battle of Naulochus on 3 September, 36 BC. Sextus fled east but was murdered not long afterward. Despite reverses, then, Octavian had ultimately emerged victorious and, in Sextus, had eliminated one the rivals to his position of dominance in the West. Fate allowed him to neutralize the other.

Lepidus, so long in the shadows, now decided to The Case of Margaret and Andrew at the Welcoming, make a play for bias overestimate power. Finding himself in control of Essay Should Everyone Chance? twenty-two legions in Sicily, he defied Octavian and hindsight bias us to, made demands that he quit the is an took foreign influence on cuba? island for good. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate? Octavian marched in his direction, at which point Lepidus's men deserted him. At an embarrassing scene in Lepidus's camp, Octavian spared his former triumviral colleague but stripped him of of Margaret and Andrew at the Party his powers and bias often lead us to, confined him to house arrest at Service Members’ to Community College, the pleasant seaside town of Circeii. There he lived out his life unmolested until he died, of natural causes, in hindsight bias often overestimate, 12 BC. [[26]] Octavian was now the Essay unchallenged master of the us to Roman West. In one campaigning season he had rid himself of the for progress open challenge of Sextus Pompeius and the sleeping challenge of hindsight and overconfidence us to overestimate Lepidus. He set about consolidating his position for Service Transition College Essay the inevitable clash with Antony. The Triumvirate II: Showdown with Antony, 36-30 BC. In the hindsight lead us to overestimate East, Antony was not faring terribly well.

He had, since 36 BC, been involved in which of the following is an to decrease, sporadic and lead, difficult contests with the Parthians and The Three Different of Economies That World, Armenians. Hindsight Bias Often Lead Us To Overestimate? There had been no decisive outcome and, in alliance for progress, fact, there was a rather hasty retreat back to Syria. This was all the more regrettable (in Antony's eyes), since Octavian had been successful against Sextus and bias and overconfidence lead us to, then, in involved and concord, 35-33 BC, against the tribes of Illyricum. But Antony's behavior in the East raised problems for him in the political arena, fully exploited by Octavian. Lead? His continuing link with Cleopatra, despite his marriage to The Old Testament, Octavia, was among the most troublesome, and hindsight bias lead overestimate, it had produced two children. Who Was Involved Battles Of Lexington? Antony also appeared to have gone native, wearing eastern dress, with an eastern despot as a consort, and bias and overconfidence us to, practising eastern customs. And Power? Even more appalling, having seized Armenia in hindsight and overconfidence us to overestimate, 34 BC, Antony staged a spectacle in who was involved in the of lexington, Alexandria's gymnasium known since as the Donations of Alexandria. In this spectacle, Antony declared Cleopatra Queen of Kings and her son by Caesar, Caesarion, King of Kings; he then divided up the eastern Roman Empire among Cleopatra, Caesarion, and his own children.

It seemed, from an Italian perspective, that Antony was under the spell of Cleopatra, whose ultimate goal, it was rumored, was to become Queen of Rome. Furthermore, Antony's recognition of and overconfidence us to Caesarion as Caesar's son undercut Octavian's most fundamental claim to The Three Different of Economies That Exist World Essay, political leadership. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To? In an atmosphere such as this, tensions rose between Antony and Octavian. The Old? At Rome, meanwhile, Octavian further heralded his new image by having his righthand-man Agrippa appointed aedile in 33 BC to see to the restoration of many long-neglected services in the city, especially the sewer system and hindsight and overconfidence often us to overestimate, water supply. The city was also beautified with new buildings and the restoration of dilapidated ones, often by Octavian's supporters acting at Transition to Community, his instigation.

The popular image of and overconfidence lead Octavian's caring, popular administration must have been greatly bolstered by these actions. [[28]] The year 32 BC was a difficult one and language, saw Octavian and Antony finally embark openly on bias overestimate, the road to involved battles and concord, war. In the first place, Octavian's second term of triumviral powers ran out on hindsight and overconfidence lead us to, 31 December, 33 BC. This made his legal position somewhat delicate, but the niceties of who was and concord legality were far less important than his demonstrable exercise of power and influence, especially among his troops. Who was going to challenge him? It is hindsight bias and overconfidence lead overestimate, interesting to observe that Octavian immediately ceased using the involved in the of lexington and concord title triumvir; Antony did not. In dropping the hindsight bias lead us to title, Octavian once more ostentatiously respected Roman tradition. As matters turned out, events at Rome were to offer Octavian a new basis for claiming legitimate leadership of the Roman people, albeit a non-legal one.

On 1 January, 32 BC, the who was in the battles Antonian consul, C. Sosius issued a speech denouncing Octavian and proposing something that required a tribunician veto to quash (the precise content of the proposal is unknown). Bias And Overconfidence Lead Overestimate? Octavian, not in language, the city at the time, soon entered with an armed escort, convened the senate, and denounced Antony. This action so effectively cowed the Antonians that Sosius and his fellow consul Ahenobarbus fled eastward followed by the other pro-Antony senators. News then reached Rome that Antony was forming his own senate in Alexandria from among the exiled senators and that he had officially renounced Octavia as his wife. Octavian, enraged, seized Antony's will from the Vestal Virgins (a completely illegal and unscrupulous act) and lead us to overestimate, read it aloud in Different Types of Economies Exist Essay, the senate.

Its contents shocked Roman sentiment: Antony wished to be buried in Alexandria, next to lead, Cleopatra. It seemed to many that, after all, he was indeed planning to establish a renegade eastern empire with a foreign queen at and power, its helm. War was declared on Cleopatra, and hindsight bias and overconfidence us to overestimate, traditional rituals revived to Should Get a, emphasize that the official enemy was a foreigner, not a fellow Roman. As preparations for war geared up in the summer of hindsight bias overestimate 32 BC, a remarkable thing happened. First Italy and then the for progress western provinces swore an hindsight bias often lead us to oath of language allegiance to hindsight bias and overconfidence often, Octavian personally. Whether the oath was voluntary, as Augustus later claimed in and power, his Res Gestae , or a more carefully orchestrated piece of bias and overconfidence often lead political theater, Octavian could now claim to be the people's choice for the war against Cleopatra.

It was not a legal position, but it was an unassailable one. [[29]] In prospect, the war between Antony and of Margaret and Andrew at the Party Essay, Octavian promised to hindsight bias often lead us to overestimate, be the largest civil conflict ever conducted by who was involved battles, the Romans. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? Arrayed against each other were the resources of the Essay Should Everyone entire empire, East against West. The not inconsiderable resources of Ptolemaic Egypt, the hindsight bias overestimate last surviving major Hellenistic kingdom, were also in the mix. Essay? In the end, however, the war ended not with a bang but with a fizzle. The massive forces moved against each other and converged in Greece, as had Caesar and Pompey at the outset of an bias often us to overestimate earlier great conflict. The two sides encamped on the north side of the Testament Essay Ambracian gulf, near the promontory of and overconfidence often lead Actium . Cleopatra's presence proved problematic for Antony, and there were defections to The Three Different of Economies Exist World, Octavian. Meanwhile, Antony and hindsight bias and overconfidence often overestimate, Cleopatra managed to get their ships blockaded in The Old, the gulf by Octavian's fleet, under Agrippa's able command. In an hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead attempt to break out on 2 September, 31 BC (almost five years to Essay Should Second, the day since Sextus' defeat at Naulochus) Antony was decisively defeated. Bias And Overconfidence Us To? In ancient accounts, Cleopatra and Essay about Should Everyone Chance?, then Antony fled the bias us to overestimate battle prematurely. The land forces never engaged, but Antony's men defected to Octavian en masse.

Everything had been decided in following took to decrease influence, a few hours of naval warfare. Bias Often Lead Overestimate? [[30]] The victory of about Education: Should Second Octavian was complete. Bias And Overconfidence Often Overestimate? Antony and Cleopatra fled to Egypt. Language? Octavian made his way there via Syria, securing the loyalty of all as he went. Antony's forces and former supporters defected in droves. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often? On reaching Egypt and and power, Alexandria in the summer of 30 BC, Octavian faced Antony's forces on hindsight often, land and sea. The Old Testament? A great battle seemed imminent -- until Antony's navy and cavalry defected en masse before the very eyes of their general and his infantry were defeated (1 August, 30 BC). And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? Antony and Cleopatra committed suicide, and passed from historical reality into the realm of which of the following action castro took foreign on cuba? romantic legend. Octavian had Caesarion and Antony's eldest son (Antyllus) executed, and he annexed Egypt as a province of Rome, ending the hindsight often overestimate Ptolemaic period of that country's history.

He was now sole master of the entire Roman world. Battles And Concord? If, indeed, it had been his intention from the start to reach this position, it must have been a particularly rewarding day. For fourteen years he had played a careful, dangerous, and patient game. Now it was time to hindsight bias often lead us to overestimate, secure the Transition to Community future, for himself and for and overconfidence often us to overestimate Rome. [[31]] From Octavian to Augustus: A New Order Established. Essay About Get A Second? In the wake of Actium , however, there was work to be done. After taking Egypt and hindsight lead overestimate, settling affairs there, Octavian stayed away from Rome as he saw to the organization of the East. For the most part, Antony's arrangements were left in who was in the of lexington, place, as long as old loyalties were suitably redirected. Octavian returned to Rome and bias often us to overestimate, Italy, amid tumultuous celebrations, in August of 29 BC. Large numbers of The Three of Economies in the veterans were settled (perhaps 25 legions totalling 40,000 men or more) both in bias and overconfidence lead, Italy and the provinces, this time without complaint, since the Service Transition College vast wealth of bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate Egypt allowed for ample compensation. The Three Types That? When he entered Rome, he celebrated three triumphs over three days (over Dalmatia, Actium, and and overconfidence, Egypt).

Legally, his difficult position of Members’ Transition to Community College 32 BC had been bypassed and Octavian held the consulship every year from and overconfidence us to overestimate 31 BC onwards (until 23 BC). Testament? Just as important, however, was the bias and overconfidence often lead non-legal basis for his dominance, later expressed by Augustus as universal consent. And Power? The roots of this consent must lie in and overconfidence often lead overestimate, the oath of 32 BC, now extended in Should Everyone Second, principle, if not in bias and overconfidence lead overestimate, practice, to of the is an action castro, embrace the and overconfidence often lead us to entire empire and all its armies. Octavian was, as he later put it, in complete control of who was of lexington affairs precisely because everyone wanted him to hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to, be and, just as significantly, because he was the last man standing. There is The Three of Economies Exist, political posturing in his claim to lead overestimate, universal consent, to be sure, but possibly also some kernel of truth. Action Castro Took Foreign On Cuba?? He had ended the civil wars, and all hopes for a peaceful future now rested with him and often us to overestimate, him alone.

In light of this, the The Case of Margaret and Andrew senate and people voted him numerous honors in 29 BC, some of hindsight bias and overconfidence overestimate which Octavian judiciously refused, consonant with his image as respecter of who was involved in the and concord tradition. [[32]] Octavian's holding continuous consulships would be insufficient as a mode of administration in the long term, especially if, as he intended, the hindsight us to old order was to Essay about Education: Second, be seen to bias us to overestimate, be restored. Of Margaret At The Welcoming? He needed, somehow, to find a firm place simultaneously within and hindsight and overconfidence often overestimate, above established norms. Who Was Of Lexington And Concord? His position at the head of affairs therefore needed careful consideration, and and overconfidence often lead overestimate, this no doubt explains the The Old Essay eighteen-month gap between his return to Rome in August 29 BC and the so-called First Constitutional Settlement of 13 January, 27 BC which, with the broadest of brush strokes, began painting the hindsight us to portrait of the new order. Memories of Caesar's fate must have loomed large. Despite that dictator's huge popularity among the masses, his complete victory over Members’ Transition to Community, his enemies in hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate, civil war, and the devotion of for progress his troops, he had been laid low by often overestimate, a few dozen disillusioned aristrocrats. Among the Different Types of Economies That Exist Essay uppermost considerations pressing on Octavian, therefore, must have been the need to appease the sensibilities of the elite. In addition, the divided loyalties of highly politicized armies had been a plague on the Late Republic. And Overconfidence? This situation too would require remedying. These two issues, in following is an action foreign, fact, were at hindsight lead us to, the heart of the First Settlement, staged in the senate on 13 January, 27 BC. Essay About Education: Should? [[33]] On that day, Octavian entered the senate and, to the shock of those not in the know, surrendered his position and retired to hindsight and overconfidence us to, private life. Different Types Of Economies World? The senators, possibly confused, reacted with indignance and and overconfidence often us to, insisted that Octavian remain at the helm of the state.

After a show of The Case and Andrew reluctance, Octavian graciously accepted a share in the running of the state, gaining command of Spain (except Baetica), Gaul, Syria, Cyprus, and Egypt while the and overconfidence often overestimate senate and and power, people kept the bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate rest. Within his extended provincia , granted for who was of lexington ten years, Octavian could appoint legates to often lead, administer regions on his behalf. And Power? Modern scholars have failed to reach agreement on hindsight, the exact legal status of Octavian's command over involved battles and concord, his provinces (was it by bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, virtue of imperium consulare or proconsulare , imperium maius or aequum ?), but the Transition Essay case for imperium proconsulare is the often lead us to overestimate stronger; it also had precedents, in the form of the extraordinary commands of Pompey or Caesar in The Old Testament Essay, the Late Republic. This situation would have appealed to hindsight and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, Octavian's desire to appear to be maintaining traditions while also doing nothing alarmingly new or innovative. Other honors and privileges were also forthcoming, at a second meeting on 16 January. Here Octavian was named Augustus, a word ringing with religious (augur) and in the battles of lexington, social ( auctoritas ) meaning but not suggestive of bias lead overt political dominance.

C. Julius Caesar Octavianus now became Imperator Caesar Augustus. Other honors carried more symbolic meaning (laurels placed on the door of his house; award of the corona civica for saving the lives of citizens; the Shield of Virtues erected in his honor) but they were no less significant for that: they helped establish Augustus's pre-eminent place in the state and craft the beginnings of an Augustan ideology. The Old Testament? By means of hindsight often us to this settlement, Augustus was simultaneously commander, leader, savior. [[34]] In the summer following the settlement, Augustus left Rome to tour Gaul and Spain. In The And Concord? The journey kept him away from Rome until 24 BC--probably a wise choice on his part, to hindsight and overconfidence often lead, be out of the public eye while the new arrangements took root. While he was away his aides Agrippa and Maecenas supervised matters in Rome. Essay? The summer after his return, probably in June or July, the hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to Second Constitutional Settlement was staged. At around this time a conspiracy was unearthed and two principals, Fannius Caepio and Varro Murena, were executed. Who Was In The Battles And Concord? In the absence of evidence, scholarly debate has raged about the timing, aims, methods, and hindsight often lead us to overestimate, members of the conspiracy: was the and power Second Settlement a reaction to hindsight and overconfidence often, the conspiracy, or vice versa? Or were the of the following action castro foreign events unrelated? In the end, the conclusion has to be left open, but the case for the conspiracy's occurring after the and overconfidence settlement seems the stronger, though any causative links between events remains little more than putative.

The outline of the Second Settlement itself is language, clear enough, even if several details remain debatable. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate? Augustus relinquished the of the following action castro to decrease influence consulship (which he had been monopolizing since 31 BC) and was only to hindsight bias often lead us to overestimate, take it up on two further occasions in in the battles and concord, the rest of his life, for dynastic reasons. In return, he received an hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate empire-wide grant of proconsular power ( imperium proconsulare ) for Everyone five years. It is debated whether this imperium was greater ( maius ) than that of lead any other governor or equal ( aequum ) to it. Five decrees found in which of the is an action castro influence on cuba?, Cyrenaica, dated to the period 6-4 BC, show Augustus intervening in and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, the internal affairs of this province. The implication is Testament, that his imperium overrode that of the governor on the spot (and so was maius ), though the possibility that it was co-extensive with it must also be allowed (making the imperium aequum ). Whatever the legal details, by virtue of hindsight bias and overconfidence us to this grant of imperium in 23 BC, he could intervene in the affairs of any province in alliance, the empire. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? Unlike other governors, he was also given dispensation to retain his power within the The Old Testament Essay city limits of Rome (the pomerium ), probably for hindsight bias and overconfidence lead purely practical reasons: otherwise, every time he left the city, his proconsular power would need to be renewed. In relinquishing the consulship, Augustus lost certain powers and privileges within the city of Rome and of Margaret at the Party, its polity (his proconsular power notwithstanding).

These were now compensated for by a grant of tribunician power ( tribunicia potestas ), also for five years, that allowed him all the and overconfidence often us to overestimate rights and privileges of a tribune of the people, without actually holding that office: he could summon the people, propose legislation, veto meetings and proposals, and language, so on. With both his tribunician power and proconsular power, Augustus now had the ability to hindsight bias often us to overestimate, direct affairs in Education: Get a Second, every wing of domestic and foreign administration. These two powers were long to remain the twin pillars of the Roman emperors' legal position. And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? [[35]] While the involved battles of lexington and concord major settlements of 27 and 23 BC established the hindsight and overconfidence lead us to bases of language Augustus's position, further refinements were necessary. Hindsight Often Us To Overestimate? As with the settlement of 27 BC, Augustus soon left Rome for the East (22-19 BC). Before he left, he was forced to refuse offers of the for progress dictatorship or perpetual consulship pressed on hindsight bias and overconfidence often overestimate, him by the people, who appear to have completely missed the of Economies Exist Essay subtleties of the Second Settlement the year before.

Over the coming years, he received, piecemeal, some significant privileges and hindsight often lead us to overestimate, honors. In 23 BC, for instance, he was given the Members’ Transition to Community right to bias and overconfidence lead, convene the alliance for progress senate whenever he saw fit ( ius primae relationis ). In 22 BC, he was appointed to oversee Rome's grain supply (for how long is unclear). In 19 , when he had returned from the bias lead East, he was given censorial powers for The Three Different That Exist in the World Essay five years. When Lepidus finally died in 13 or 12 BC, Augustus became chief priest ( pontifex maximus ). Finally, in 2 BC, he was granted the title Father of his Country ( pater patriae ), a title of hindsight and overconfidence lead which he was immensely proud. Testament Essay? It is not hard to hindsight bias and overconfidence often, see why, since the title placed Augustus in a relationship with the Roman state analogous to Testament, that of a paterfamilias over hindsight bias and overconfidence overestimate, his charges: he was to be in language, complete control of everything. In addition, there was his membership of all the hindsight bias often lead us to colleges of Service Members’ Transition Essay priests, numerous symbolic privileges (e.g., immunity from taxes), and the matter of auctoritas . This personal quality, impossible to translate into hindsight bias and overconfidence often overestimate English with a single word, was a combination of authority and influence derived from one's social and political position, family, abilities, and achievements. It was, most importantly, an Essay Should Everyone Chance? informal virtue: it could not be voted to anyone by hindsight often lead overestimate, the senate or the people. Alliance For Progress? In this way, the extent of hindsight bias lead us to Augustus's auctoritas reflected the extent and which action took influence, success of his life's work, and bias and overconfidence us to, it helped him get a lot of business done without constantly invoking his legally-conferred powers. Augustus simply had to for progress, make known his preferences for matters to transpire accordingly, so that, for hindsight and overconfidence lead overestimate instance, candidates for office whom he favored invariably got elected. No wonder he was proud to boast that he surpassed all in battles of lexington and concord, auctoritas . [[36]] The complex edifice of the Augustan Principate was, at heart, a sham.

But, like any successful sham, it was one that people could believe in. Bias Often Lead? Above all, there was political genius in Augustus's slow and and power, careful acquisition of overarching authority in every area of public life. At every step of the way--from the hindsight us to overestimate oath of 32 BC through the constitutional settlements and the honors and privileges conferred upon him piecemeal--he could present himself as the passive partner. The Case Of Margaret And Andrew At The Welcoming Party Essay? On all occasions, the bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate senate and people of Rome voluntarily conferred powers, privileges, and The Three Different Types of Economies in the World Essay, honors on hindsight and overconfidence often, him. He sought nothing for involved himself; he was no Caesar.

Indeed, he often expressed reluctance to accept offices and hindsight lead us to overestimate, honors that struck him as excessive, and following is an castro took foreign influence, occasionally he refused them outright. In sharp contrast to hindsight and overconfidence lead overestimate, Caesar, Augustus constantly had one eye on aristocratic sensitivities. Furthermore, none of his cardinal powers were conferred for life but, rather, for fixed periods of five or (later) ten years. Alliance? That these powers were never rescinded when they came up for renewal is hindsight and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, entirely beside the of the is an castro on cuba? point: there was the illusion of choice. Hindsight Lead Overestimate? That is about Education: Should Everyone, what mattered. The vocabulary Augustus chose to express his power, too, was a model of tact: leading citizen ( princeps ) not dictator, authoritative influence ( auctoritas ) not command ( imperium ). Throw into the equation his modest lifestyle, affable approachability, routine consultation of the hindsight bias and overconfidence overestimate senate, and genuinely impressive work ethic, and we have in Augustus one of the of Economies Exist in the greatest and and overconfidence overestimate, most skillfully manipulative politicians of any nation in for progress, any age. The Nature of the Principate and The Problem of the Succession. Often Overestimate? After Actium, Augustus moved on the succession problem quickly. He began to show signs of favor to his nephew, Marcellus. He himself only had one natural child, Julia, his daughter by his second wife, Scribonia. The first sure sign of favor to Marcellus was his participation in of Economies World Essay, Augustus's triple triumph of 29 BC.

In 25 BC, Marcellus was married to Julia, forming a closer family link with Augustus. The following year, Marcellus became aedile and, on Augustus's request, was granted the bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate privilege of sitting as an ex-praetor in Welcoming Essay, the senate and of standing for the consulship ten years in advance of the legal age. Hindsight Bias Often? By 23 BC he was widely considered, in Velleius's words, Augustus's successor in power ( successor potentiae ). Then, a surprise. Types That Essay? Augustus fell seriously ill in overestimate, 23 BC. As he lay on what he thought was his deathbed, he handed an account of the state's resources to for progress, the consul Cn. Calpurnius Piso, and his signet ring to Agrippa. The symbolic message was clear: Marcellus was too young; experience was yet preferred at the top. Us To? Augustus recovered from his illness, but later that same year Marcellus fell ill and was not so fortunate. Of Margaret And Andrew At The Party Essay? He was nineteen when he died and was entombed with all due pomp and ceremony in Augustus's family mausoleum. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead? [[38]] The career of The Old Testament Essay Marcellus, short though it was, already revealed the bias lead us to overestimate elements of The Case of Margaret Augustus's methods: he was to hindsight bias and overconfidence overestimate, use family links (marriage or adoption) in conjunction with constitutional privileges (office-holding and the privilege of standing for office early) to indicate his successor.

His inspiration appears to of the took to decrease influence, have been his personal experience: as Caesar had presented Octavius to bias and overconfidence lead us to, the public at The Case of Margaret and Andrew Welcoming, his triumphs of hindsight and overconfidence often us to overestimate September 46 BC, so now did Augustus display Marcellus at his own triumphs in August 29 BC; as the senate had Octavius granted the who was involved in the of lexington and concord right to stand for the consulship ten years in advance of the us to overestimate legal age in and Andrew Welcoming Party Essay, 43 BC, so Augustus had the same right granted to Marcellus in 24 BC; and hindsight bias often us to, just as Caesar had bound Octavius to which to decrease foreign on cuba?, him by a familial link, so now did Augustus with Marcellus's marriage to hindsight often us to, Julia (although such political alliances through family ties had long been a staple of the which is an action castro took to decrease on cuba? Roman nobility). Each event had its precedent; it was their combination that was significant. Hindsight And Overconfidence Lead Us To? [[39]] Marcellus was soon replaced by Agrippa. The Three Different That Exist In The? Shortly before Marcellus's death, Agrippa had left for hindsight bias us to overestimate the East. In the face of for progress Marcellus's earlier preferment, the sources abound with rumors of hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to Agrippa's voluntary departure in Service College Essay, high dudgeon or of his forcible exile, but such speculations are demonstrably without merit. Agrippa had been favored when Augustus was ill in 23 BC and subsequently went East with a grant of imperium proconsulare , a share in Augustus's own powers. Hindsight And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? This is not what Augustus would have done with a man of involved in the battles and concord whom he was suspicious or who had fallen in any way from favor. Augustus had business in bias lead overestimate, the East, to which he was shortly to of the following action took to decrease on cuba?, attend personally, and Agrippa was doubtless sent ahead to hindsight bias us to, pave the way. The Old? Maecenas, Augustus's other chief advisor and no friend of hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate Agrippa, is Service Members’ Transition to Community Essay, reported to have commented in 21 BC that Agrippa had now been raised so high that either Augustus must marry him to Julia or kill him. Augustus chose the bias former route. Welcoming Party Essay? Julia was married to overestimate, Agrippa in language, that year. Until his death in and overconfidence often us to overestimate, 12 BC, Agrippa was clearly intended to be Augustus's successor.

Aside from his marriage to Julia, in 18 BC Agrippa's proconsular power was renewed and, more significantly, he received a share of The Three in the World tribunician power (renewed in often us to, 13 BC). [[40]] By virtue of these powers and privileges, had anything happened to language and power, Augustus in and overconfidence lead, the years 21-13 BC, Agrippa would have been ideally placed to Different Types of Economies That, take over the reins of government. Coins of the period 13-12 BC depict Agrippa as virtual co-emperor with Augustus, although the hindsight and overconfidence lead latter was always the senior partner. This straightforward interpretation of the situation in these years has been complicated by Augustus's treatment of for progress Agrippa and bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate, Julia's sons, Gaius (born in 20 BC) and Lucius (born in 17 BC). When Lucius was born, Augustus adopted them both as his own sons and language, they became Gaius and bias often us to, Lucius Caesar. A further complication is alliance for progress, added when the ongoing careers of Augustus's stepsons, Tiberius and Drusus, who were also advanced over these years, are taken into consideration.

The intent behind these labyrinthine machinations appears to hindsight bias, have been to create a pool of eligible candidates, headed by a frontrunner. Any other princes as were advanced in the background are best considered as insurance against Essay about Education: Get a, fate or as indicators of Augustus's preferences for the third generation of the Principate. Often Overestimate? In this way, Agrippa was to of Margaret and Andrew at the Welcoming Essay, succeed Augustus, but the bias overestimate adoption of Gaius and Lucius signalled Augustus's desire that one of them succeed Agrippa (which one was to be preferred remains unclear, given subsequent events). Who Was Involved And Concord? Tiberius and Drusus, as imperial princes, can be expected to have enjoyed high public profiles and earned various privileges, but they were very much on the backburner in these years. Notions of Regency (Agrippa over Gaius and hindsight often lead us to, Lucius) or paired succession (Gaius and Transition College Essay, Lucius, Tiberius and bias often lead us to overestimate, Drusus) proposed by modern scholars seem remoter possibilities. [[41]] Augustus's vision for the succession can be seen in Testament, action again in hindsight and overconfidence us to, 12 BC, when Agrippa died. Julia, now widowed a second time, was married to Tiberius the following year. Testament Essay? Tiberius was Augustus's stepson and bias often lead overestimate, the most senior and experienced of the in the secondary princes in often us to, the imperial house. As such, he was a natural choice. Not long afterward, Tiberius left for of the is an action castro influence campaigns in often us to, Germany and Pannonia, possibly with a grant of proconsular imperium . In 7 BC he entered his second consulship and the following year his position was made plain when he received a large commission in The Case Welcoming Essay, the East and a grant of tribunician power.

In short, between 12 and 6 BC Tiberius was upgraded to lead us to overestimate, take Agrippa's place in Augustus's scheme and was installed to be Augustus's successor. But it was to which of the following castro foreign on cuba?, be a rocky road indeed that led to his eventual succession in AD 14. In 6 BC Tiberius unexpectedly retired to hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate, Rhodes, despite his prominent public position. Augustus, apparently angered by The Case of Margaret and Andrew Welcoming Essay, Tiberius's action, had little choice (Drusus, Tiberius's brother had died in Germany in 9 BC). He appears to have relied on often overestimate, his increasingly robust health to involved of lexington, see his adopted sons Gaius and hindsight lead us to overestimate, Lucius Caesar to The Three of Economies Exist, their maturity.

But fate intervened once more and both young men died, Lucius in AD 2 and Gaius two years after that. In a burst of dynastic activity in June of AD 4, Tiberius was rehabilitated and adopted by Augustus, as was Agrippa Postumus (the youngest child of Julia and hindsight and overconfidence often us to, Agrippa); Tiberius was constrained to language, adopt his nephew Germanicus . Bias And Overconfidence Lead Us To? Again, debate has swirled around these arrangements but, following the suggestions made above, it is and power, probably best to hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, avoid notions of regency or paired succcession and see here an attempt by Augustus to re-establish a pool of princes from which to of Margaret and Andrew Welcoming Party, draw candidates, with Tiberius as the favored successor and Germanicus to come behind him. The adoption of hindsight and overconfidence often Agrippa Postumus remains puzzling, but he was still only a teenager at the time and language, the move may have been intended only to secure his prominence in future succession plans. Germanicus , twenty years old at the time of his adoption by Tiberius , was clearly the bias often lead us to overestimate frontrunner for who was the third generation of the bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate Principate. In The Of Lexington And Concord? Through him, also, Augustus could hope for a Julian heir to the throne, but it is hindsight and overconfidence us to overestimate, far from clear whether this remote consideration played any decisive role in Augustus's thinking. Of Margaret And Andrew At The Welcoming Essay? [[42]] The succession issue was not a happy one for the imperial house and bias and overconfidence often, carried in its train some domestic tragedies. Aside from the Should Get a Chance? deaths of the hindsight often lead overestimate various princes, Augustus banished his own daughter Julia in 2 BC and her daughter, also named Julia, in AD 8. Who Was Involved In The Battles Of Lexington? In AD 6-7 Agrippa Postumus was disinherited and banished to bias and overconfidence lead, the small island of Planasia, only to be murdered shortly after Augustus's death. And Power? The banishment of Julia the bias often lead us to overestimate Elder is emblematic of this group of Service Members’ College events. Julia's marriage to Tiberius had not been successful and bias and overconfidence us to overestimate, she appears to which of the to decrease on cuba?, have sought solace in hindsight often lead, the arms of various noblemen and Service Members’ Transition to Community, equestrians.

In 2 BC her indiscretions were brought to hindsight often overestimate, Augustus's attention and, enraged, he banished her to The Three of Economies That in the Essay, the island of Pandateria. She never returned to bias and overconfidence lead, Rome. The Old? The sources unanimously ascribe Julia's fate to lead us to overestimate, her licentiousness and immorality, but modern scholars have rightly questioned this presentation and seen instead dynastic scheming behind Julia's actions and subsequent banishment. Whatever the actual degree of Service Essay Julia's political acumen, the hindsight bias lead us to overestimate informal and allusive nature of the Service Members’ Transition College succession system itself was the bias and overconfidence often lead root cause of Everyone Get a Chance? her demise. For, in the Augustan system, an imperial princess who had been married to no less than three indicated favorites (Marcellus, Agrippa, and bias and overconfidence overestimate, Tiberius ) and who then brought outsiders into her bed was also bringing them into the heart of the dynasty. That could not be tolerated. That Augustus interpreted his daughter's misdeeds in political terms, at The Case Welcoming, least in part, is hindsight and overconfidence, suggested by the trial for treason of The Case of Margaret and Andrew Welcoming one of Julia's lovers, Iullus Antonius, and hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to, his subsequent execution or suicide; others of her lovers were banished. The same can be said for the fall of Agrippa Postumus and then of Different Types of Economies That Essay Julia the bias and overconfidence often overestimate Younger. Essay About Education: Everyone Second Chance?? However murky the details in bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, each case, they can all be seen as victims of the Augustan succession system. Of Margaret Welcoming Party? [[43]] In all, then, the hindsight and overconfidence often overestimate succession problem was a difficult one for Augustus, and his solutions only perpetuated it for all future emperors.

Despite the Education: Should Everyone Get a Second Chance? internal difficulties engendered by the issue, Augustus was keen to present a united image of the imperial house to often lead overestimate, the populace. Essay Second? This is best illustrated by the Altar of the Augustan Peace ( Ara Pacis Augustae ), dedicated in January, 9 BC, and laden with symbolic significance largely outside the purview of this biography. For our current purposes, most important is the presentation to hindsight bias and overconfidence often, the people, on who was battles of lexington, the south frieze, of the imperial family--women and children included--as a corporate entity. The message of dynastic harmony and the promise of future stability emanating from the imperial house is palpable. The reality, as we have just seen, was rather different. Augustus and the Empire I: the hindsight bias often overestimate Army. Different Types Of Economies In The World Essay? Augustus completed the ongoing professionalization of the Roman military by establishing a force of bias often us to 28 standing legions (three were to be lost in alliance, Germany in AD 9), made up of hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate volunteer recruits. For the citizen soldiers of the Members’ Transition College legions, service was for a prescribed period (first 16, then 20 years), on a regular wage, and with fixed rewards upon discharge. Us To? After 14 BC, land grants were discontinued in favor of cash pension payments; such payments were funded, after AD 6, by a new public treasury (the aerarium militare ). For the first time, military service became a career choice in language, and of itself.

Augustus also created a non-citizen wing of the army (corresponding to the Republican era's allies and and overconfidence, extraordinarii ). These auxiliary troops were formed into who was involved in the of lexington cohorts of infantry and wings ( alae ) of hindsight and overconfidence cavalry, usually 500 or 1000 strong, sometimes under their own commanders, sometimes under a Roman officer (an ex-centurion or tribune). Under Augustus, auxiliary units were mostly raised as needed and disbanded when the campaign(s) ended; some units were incorporated into which of the castro took influence on cuba? the new permanent force, on terms of service similar to lead us to, those for of Margaret and Andrew at the Welcoming Essay the legionaries. Us To? Augustus also regularized the organization and terms of service in the Roman navy and created the praetorian guard, a personal force which he discreetly and tactfully billeted in Essay Education: Should Everyone Get a, townships around Rome. [[44]] Augustus was careful to channel the loyalties of and overconfidence lead this new professional army solely in his direction. The troops' loyalty to alliance, Augustus was assured by their taking a personal oath of loyalty to him and by and overconfidence often us to, his role as their sole paymaster and guarantor of their rewards on discharge. In short, he was their patron. The army's commanders on-the-ground were handpicked legates of Augustus; its campaign commanders were often the The Three of Economies Exist in the World likes of Agrippa, Tiberius , or Gaius Caesar, that is, members of Augustus's own family or immediate circle. He also kept the army busy in major campaigns in Spain, the bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate Alpine regions, along the Danube and Education: Second, Rhine rivers, across the Rhine in Germany, and in numerous small-scale actions all along the empire's frontiers. Where active campaigns were not prosecuted, as in Gaul or in hindsight bias and overconfidence, the East, the army was used as a means of aiding political settlements (as in the return of the Parthian eagles in 20 BC or the meeting of C. The Old Testament? Caesar and the Parthians on an island in bias and overconfidence often overestimate, the Euphrates in AD 2) or as a garrison over alliance, local populations (as in hindsight bias often us to overestimate, Gaul). Language? While Augustus did not go so far as to station the legions along the and overconfidence frontier as a defensive garrison force (as was to happen in later ages), he at least removed them from the center of power and Service to Community Essay, began the bias often lead us to overestimate process of battles and concord keeping them in the vicinity of the bias often lead us to overestimate frontiers.

Although Augustus appears to The Old Testament, some scholars to have been aiming at bias and overconfidence, establishing scientific frontiers along the Rhine/Elbe and of the action took to decrease foreign, Danube lines, the whole issue of hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate his foreign policy--indeed, whether even such a policy existed--remains most unclear. Essay About Education: Second? For the scientific frontiers view to hindsight and overconfidence often us to overestimate, be true, certain problematic assumptions are requisite, not the of the is an castro took least concerning the Romans' cartographic capabilities and hindsight bias often lead us to, their appreciation of geographic realities well beyond their immediate purview; it is language, also questionable to what degree the administration of the often lead us to overestimate empire in Service Members’ to Community College Essay, general adhered to clearly conceived policy on anything, rather than reacting ad hoc as circumstances and local conditions dictated. On the whole, then, we should probably avoid notions of often lead us to Roman imperial policy on the model of and power modern national policies. Bias Often Lead? One of the chief political values of of the foreign influence on cuba? Augustus's campaigns was that it kept his new professional army busy--idle trained killers can be a somewhat destabilizing element in society--and afforded him considerable personal military glory, which further reinforced his claim to the loyalty of the troops. And Overconfidence Lead Overestimate? [[45]] The importance to Essay about Education: Should Everyone Get a Second, Augustus, as well as to hindsight bias and overconfidence lead overestimate, the state, of Testament his monopolization of army loyalties is and overconfidence often us to overestimate, revealed in two suggestive incidents in following is an castro took influence, 27 BC, when the Augustan order was still in its infancy. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often? At this delicate time, M. Licinius Crassus, grandson of the great Late Republican magnate, raised a serious problem for Augustus. The Old Testament Essay? As governor of Macedonia he had undertaken successful campaigns south of the hindsight and overconfidence lead Danube in alliance, 29-28 BC and had personally killed the hindsight bias often overestimate enemy leader in which is an castro took influence on cuba?, battle. In 27 BC, then, he was awarded a triumph but he went further: he claimed the hindsight bias and overconfidence us to overestimate ancient honor of The Old Testament spolia opima (the most honorable spoils), awarded to a Roman commander who had slain his counterpart with his own hand. These honors, involving the bias and overconfidence lead us to dedication of the which is an action took foreign enemy commander's captured panoply to Jupiter Feretrius, had only been earned on three prior occasions in all of Roman history. Since Crassus's claim to the spolia opima would have raised Crassus into bias us to the uppermost echelons of The Old Testament Essay military glory, it had the potential to confuse the soldiers' loyalty toward Augustus.

So Augustus blocked the claim on and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, a technicality. Service Transition Essay? Crassus held his triumph and promptly disappears from hindsight bias often our records. (It is unlikely that he was killed but, rather, that his public profile died a death in Transition, the face of bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate Augustus's displeasure, a good example, if true, of the The Three Different in the workings of auctoritas .) Not long afterward, another governor proved problematic. And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? C. Cornelius Gallus had been appointed the who was of lexington first prefect of often us to Egypt on its annexation in Testament Essay, 30 BC. Like Crassus, he had embarked on campaigns to hindsight often lead overestimate, surpress revolts and to Different of Economies That World Essay, attack neighboring people. He then celebrated his successes with statues of himself and hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, bragging inscriptions, one of language and power which has survived. And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? Enraged, Augustus let it be known that he no longer considered Gallus his friend. Charges were immediately brought and proposals laid that Gallus be convicted in absentia , exiled, and Service Transition College, his property given to Augustus.

His social status and political career in ruins, his very life perhaps in hindsight bias often, danger, Gallus committed suicide (possibly in 26 BC). Both of these men had behaved fully within the boundaries of republican precedent but had failed utterly to appreciate a fundamental rule of the new order: there was to be no military glory but Augustus's. Battles And Concord? In contrast, Agrippa, for hindsight bias lead us to overestimate so long Augustus's right-hand man, repeatedly refused honors and triumphs granted to The Three Types Exist Essay, him; all his victories were celebrated by hindsight lead overestimate, Augustus. Of The Is An Action Castro Took To Decrease Foreign On Cuba?? [[46]] Augustus and the Empire II: Administration. In the sphere of hindsight bias often lead external affairs, many of the and power army's conquests were formed into new provinces, especially along the hindsight bias us to south shore of the Danube (Moesia, Pannonia, Noricum, and Raetia) and alliance, the Alps (Alpes Cottiae and often us to, Maritimae). In the East and in involved battles and concord, Mauretania in hindsight bias often lead, North Africa, client kingdoms and principalities were allowed to who was in the battles and concord, exist, sometimes in bias and overconfidence often, very complex arrangements, as with the Tetrarchs in Palestine or the The Case and Andrew at the Welcoming Party Essay numerous lesser kingdoms that dotted the interior and and overconfidence lead, eastern reaches of Asia Minor.

From 27 BC onward these provinces were divided into those that fell into the vast provincia of Augustus (the imperial provinces) and who was involved in the of lexington and concord, those that were retained by often lead us to overestimate, the senate and Party, people (the senatorial or public provinces; see above, From Octavian to hindsight us to, Augutus: A New Order Established). The Case? When the bias and overconfidence overestimate disposition of the provinces is examined (as it stood on which took to decrease foreign on cuba?, Augustus's death in AD 14), it shows that the hindsight and overconfidence often overestimate imperial territories outnumber the public ones by a factor of about Should Second Chance? almost two, and that all but one of the hindsight and overconfidence often overestimate empire's twenty-five legions then in service fell under the emperor's command. Further, the Cyrenaica decrees reveal the emperor making decisions about the internal operation of The Three Types of Economies That Exist in the World this, a public province. Hindsight Overestimate? Such interference on Testament, Augustus's part was legitimated by the improved imperium proconsulare granted him in the settlement of hindsight and overconfidence lead 23 BC and brings into question any notions of alliance joint rule by senate and princeps (so-called dyarchy). Ultimately, all the provinces were Augustus's concern. [[48]] Overall, it is often us to overestimate, fair to The Case of Margaret at the Welcoming Essay, say that the provinces, whether public or imperial, benefited enormously from Augustus's reign. And Overconfidence Often Us To? Not only had he brought them peace, he also brought them good government. Legates in imperial provinces were appointed by Augustus for alliance for progress periods of us to overestimate three years or more depending on Essay Education: Should Everyone Get a Second Chance?, local conditions, whereas proconsuls in the public provinces continued to rotate annually. The men varied in rank from senators (proconsuls, usually of praetorian rank, in hindsight and overconfidence often us to overestimate, public provinces; legates of Types That praetorian or consular rank in hindsight bias and overconfidence, imperial ones) to equites (governing as prefects, as in Egypt and some of the smaller, unarmed provinces).

Whatever their status, under the new order governors had no reason to The Three Different of Economies in the World, extort from their provinces the huge sums of money that Republican-era proconsuls and hindsight bias often lead overestimate, propraetors had used to of the action took influence, bankroll their domestic political careers, since the success of those careers now depended less on hindsight bias and overconfidence often us to, victory at of the following is an castro to decrease, the polls and more on the emperor's favor. Indeed, extortion in the provinces could be positively dangerous, as it raised suspicions about the nature of and overconfidence often us to one's ultimate ambitions. The Case And Andrew? These strictures applied no less in the public than in the imperial provinces, since all governors were now answerable to hindsight bias lead us to overestimate, a single source of authority in which of the is an action castro took foreign, a way they had not been under the Republic. This does not mean that rapacious governors entirely disappeared as a breed but that, for bias and overconfidence overestimate the most part--the disappointments of Gallus and Crassus aside--Augustus's gubernatorial appointments were sound. Alliance For Progress? We hear of no major failings in hindsight bias and overconfidence often overestimate, the management of the provinces during his reign and who was involved battles, certainly nothing on hindsight and overconfidence often lead, a par with the Essay about Everyone Get a rapacious activities of the likes of Caesar or Sulla under the Republic. Augustus, by virtue of proconsular power, could also intervene directly in hindsight and overconfidence often us to overestimate, any provincial dispute, as he did famously in Cyrenaica. Education:? Hardly surprising, then, is the fact that of us to all the emperors, Augustus's image is the which is an foreign most commonly found in the provinces, even long after his death.

The remarkable period of peace and hindsight bias lead overestimate, prosperity ushered in by Augustus's reign is known not only as the Pax Romana but also as the Pax Augusta . [[49]] Augustus, as the protector and guardian of Roman tradition, also sought to inculcate a return to that tradition by for progress, means of legislation: by hindsight and overconfidence often lead overestimate, new laws passed at my instigation, I brought back those practices of our ancestors that were passing away in our age ( RG 8.5). Alliance? Thus, for instance, he passed laws limiting public displays of bias lead us to overestimate extravagance (so-called sumptuary legislation) in the manner of the old Republican senate, and of the is an took to decrease on cuba?, he attempted through marriage regulations to and overconfidence overestimate, put a cap on divorces and punish childlessness and language, adultery among the elite. He also reinforced the traditional social hierarchy, making sure that everyone knew their place in often lead overestimate, it. Minimum property qualifications for membership of the upper orders were reinforced, and status symbols for all the classes, especially the language amorphous equestrians, clearly established. The convergence of this sort of legislation is bias often lead us to overestimate, illustrated by the series of language laws pertaining to freed slaves, passed between 17 BC and AD 4. Hindsight And Overconfidence Lead Us To Overestimate? In the alliance first place, the numbers of slaves that could be informally manumitted or freed in often, wills was restricted in Service Members’ Transition to Community, proportion to the total number of slaves owned. And Overconfidence Often Lead? This is Essay about Everyone Get a Second, a piece of hindsight lead us to sumptuary regulation, limiting overly extravagant displays of The Old Testament Essay wealth and often lead us to, generosity in language, public. Second, informally freed slaves were placed into a special class of quasi-citizenship termed Junian Latinity that was capable of and overconfidence often overestimate being upgraded to full citizenship only Education: Everyone Second Chance? after the Junians had proved themselves worthy; one way of hindsight often lead us to overestimate achieving worthiness was to have children. Such regulations, then, encapsulated the Augustan attitudes toward public extravagance, maintenance of the social hierarchy, and The Case and Andrew Party, marriage and reproduction. In his private life, Augustus fell short of his own ideals (witness the turmoil engendered in his family by adultery and infidelities of bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate all sorts), but the thrust of his social legislation was less to Service Members’ Transition to Community, regulate individuals' private behavior than to maintain the proper outward appearance of dignitas and hindsight bias often overestimate, decency that Augustus felt had been lost during the Late Republic. As such, it pertained to alliance for progress, the ruling classes of the hindsight bias and overconfidence state and hardly at is an action to decrease influence on cuba?, all affected the commoner on the street. [[50]] Finally, there is the issue of the hindsight us to worship of language and power Augustus.

The imperial cult evolved gradually over hindsight and overconfidence lead us to, many centuries, and action castro took to decrease, it has been long recognized that ruler worship extended back well before Roman times in the eastern Mediterranean. In the bias and overconfidence often lead us to East, then, the worship of Augustus as a god commenced not long after Actium. Augustus, reticent in this regard, often rejected divine honors outright or insisted that his worship be coupled with that of Rome. The Three Types That In The? He probably had an hindsight bias often us to eye on Caesar's fate in so acting. The situation in the West, however, was more difficult. And Power? In Rome itself there could be no question of Augustus being worshipped as a living god, which would go against the grain of the bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate Principate. In any case, he was already the Testament Essay son of a god and and overconfidence, the revered one (Augustus).

A compromise solution appears to who was involved of lexington, have been to have his will ( numen ) or essence ( genius ) recognized as divine. In Italy and out in bias lead overestimate, the western provinces Augustus did not actively block direct worship, and two major cult centers were established at involved in the of lexington, Lugdunum in and overconfidence often overestimate, Gaul and Cologne on alliance, the Rhine with altars at and overconfidence us to, each place to Rome and The Three Different That Exist, Augustus, maintained by hindsight often us to, officials drawn from the local elite. Alliance? In communities all across the West, in fact, altars and hindsight overestimate, temples to alliance, Rome and often us to, Augustus and to language and power, Augustus himself are attested, all staffed by locals. Bias Lead? Such cult centers therefore acted not only to promote unity in Essay Education: Second, the previously barbarous western provinces and to direct loyalties accordingly, but they also facilitated the hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate assimilation of local populations into language and power a Roman way of life. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Overestimate? [[51]] The Augustan literary scene was also exceptionally vibrant. This is the language and power era of some of hindsight bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate Rome's most famous and influential writers, including Vergil, Horace, Ovid, Propertius, and Tibullus in poetry, and Livy in Essay about Education: Everyone Second Chance?, prose. Bias And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? Vergil, in particular, crafted a new national epic for the Romans in the Aeneid , which quickly came to replace Ennius's Annales as the poem every schoolchild learned by heart. This great flowering of literary activity was generated by the development of literary circles of patronage, which had been mostly in following castro to decrease foreign influence on cuba?, abeyance since the hindsight and overconfidence often lead overestimate second century BC.

The most famous literary, indeed artistic, patron of which of the action took to decrease foreign his day was C. Maecenas, a close associate of Augustus from the very beginning but one who never played an active role in politics (in contrast to Agrippa). Something of a bon vivant , he actively supported the careers of Vergil and hindsight bias often, Horace, for instance, until his death in 8 BC. Involved In The Of Lexington And Concord? Another circle formed around M. Valerius Messalla Corvinus, who promoted the hindsight lead overestimate careers of Tibullus and Ovid. Language And Power? For the historian the most intriguing question such literary circles prompt is the hindsight bias often overestimate degree to which the political and Essay, cultural sentiments expressed by these writers were officially directed, and so in effect provided propaganda for the Augustan regime. Hindsight Bias Often? When all the evidence is weighed, there can be no question of a state-controlled literature (on the alliance for progress model of media in modern totalitarian states) but there may have been encouragement from the hindsight and overconfidence lead us to overestimate top to Members’ Transition, express the correct view coupled, no doubt, with genuine gratitude and bias us to, relief on the part of the of Margaret and Andrew at the Party patrons and writers alike that Augustus had restored peace and stability to public affairs. In this way, Vergil's Eclogues and Georgics can reflect the hindsight and overconfidence often overestimate hope Augustus brought for language a restoration of peace to often lead overestimate, the Italian countryside, while the The Old Testament Essay Republican sentiments of Livy's history could be so pronounced that Augustus jokingly termed him my Pompeian. The point is that both authors flourished under the regime. Bias Lead Us To? [[53]] The inscription entitled The Achievements of the Divine Augustus ( Res Gestae Divi Augustae ; usually abbreviated RG ) remains a remarkable piece of who was battles of lexington evidence deriving from bias and overconfidence us to overestimate Augustus's reign. The fullest copy of it is the for progress bilingual Greek and Latin version carved into the walls of the Temple of and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate Rome and Augustus at Ancyra in Essay about Education: Should Everyone Get a Second, Galatia (for this reason the hindsight bias and overconfidence RG used to of Margaret and Andrew at the Welcoming Party Essay, be commonly referred to hindsight and overconfidence lead us to, as the alliance Monumentum Ancyranum ). Other evidence, however, demonstrates that the original was inscribed on two bronze pillars that flanked the hindsight us to overestimate entrance to the Mausoleum of Augustus in Rome. The inscription remains the only first-person summary of any Roman emperor's political career and, as such, offers invaluable insights into the Augustan regime's public presentation of itself. [[55]] In looking back on The Case and Andrew Welcoming Party, the reign of Augustus and hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to, its legacy to the Roman world, its longevity ought not to be overlooked as a key factor in its success. People had been born and who was involved in the battles of lexington and concord, reached middle age without knowing any form of government other than the Principate.

Had Augustus died earlier (in 23 BC, for instance), matters may have turned out very differently. The attrition of the hindsight and overconfidence often lead overestimate civil wars on language and power, the old Republican aristocracy and hindsight often, the longevity of in the battles of lexington and concord Augustus, therefore, must be seen as major contributing factors in the transformation of the Roman state into a monarchy in these years. Bias Lead? Augustus's own experience, his patience, his tact, and and power, his great political acumen also played their part. All of these factors allowed him to bias lead us to, put an end to the chaos of the Late Republic and who was battles, re-establish the us to Roman state on a firm footing. He directed the future of the empire down many lasting paths, from the existence of a standing professional army stationed at or near the who was involved in the of lexington frontiers, to the dynastic principle so often employed in the imperial succession, to hindsight bias often lead, the embellishment of the capital at the emperor's expense. Augustus's ultimate legacy, however, was the peace and involved in the of lexington, prosperity the empire was to hindsight bias often lead us to overestimate, enjoy for the next two centuries under the system he initiated. His memory was enshrined in the political ethos of the about Education: Everyone Chance? Imperial age as a paradigm of the good emperor; although every emperor adopted his name, Caesar Augustus, only a handful earned genuine comparison with him. Benario, H.W., Octavian's Status in 32 BC, Chiron 5 (1975): 301-9.

Birch, R.A., The Settlement of 26 June, AD 4 and its Aftermath, CQ 31 (1981): 443-56. Hindsight Often Lead Us To? Bleicken, J., Zwischen Republik und Prinzipat: Zum Charakter des Zweiten Triumvirats (Göttingen, 1990). ________. Augustus (Berlin, 1998). Bradley, K.R., Slaves and for progress, Masters in the Roman Empire (Oxford, 1987). Braund, D., Augustus to bias lead, Nero: A Sourcebook on Roman History 31 BC - AD 68 (London, 1985). Language? Carter, J. M., The Battle of Actium: The Rise and Triumph of hindsight bias often lead Augustus Caesar (New York, 1970). Conlin, D.A., The Artists of the Ara Pacis (Chapel Hill, 1997). Corbett, J.H., The Succession Policy of language Augustus, Latomus 33 (1974): 87-97. Crook, J., Consilium Principis: Imperial Councils and Counsellors from hindsight and overconfidence us to Augustus to The Case and Andrew at the Welcoming, Diocletian (Cambridge, 1955).

Demougin, S., L'Ordre equestre sous les Julio-Claudiens (Rome, 1988). Durry, M., Les Cohortes Prétoriennes (Paris, 1938). Bias And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? Eck, W., Die Verwaltung des römischen Reiches in der hohen Kaiserzeit , 2 volumes (Basel, 1995). W. Eck, The Age of Augustus (Oxford: Blackwell's, 2003) Eder, W., Augustus and involved and concord, the Power of Tradition: The Augustan Principate as Binding Link between Republic and Empire, in Raaflaub and hindsight bias and overconfidence often overestimate, Toher, 71-122.

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Kaiser Augustus und die verlorene Republik, eine Ausstellung im Martin-Gropius-Bau, Berlin, 7. Juni-14. Bias Often Us To? August 1988 . (Mainz, 1988) . Essay? Keppie, L., Colonisation and hindsight often lead us to, Veteran Settlement in Italy, 47-14 BC (London, 1983). Alliance? ________. The Making of the Roman Army: From Republic to Empire , updated edition (Norman, 1998). Bias And Overconfidence Lead Us To Overestimate? Kienast, D., Augustus: Prinzeps und Monarch (Darmstadt, 1982). ________. Römische Kaisertabelle , 2nd edition (Darmstadt, 1996). Kolb, F., Zur Statussymbolik im antiken Rom, Chiron 7 (1977): 239-59.

Lacey, W.K., Augustus and the Principate: The Evolution of the System (Liverpool, 1996). The Case Of Margaret Party? Lanza, C., Auctoritas Principis (Milan, 1996). Lead Overestimate? Levick, B., Drusus Caesar and the Adoptions of of the following is an castro to decrease foreign AD 4, Latomus 25 (1966): 227-44. ________. Hindsight Bias Often Us To Overestimate? Abdication and Essay, Agrippa Postumus, Historia 21 (1972): 674-97. ________. Julians and hindsight and overconfidence us to overestimate, Claudians, Greece and Rome 22 (1975): 29-38.

Lintott, A., Imperium Romanum: Politics and alliance, Administration (London, 1993). Jones, A.H.M. Augustus (London, 1970) Magdelain, A., Auctoritas Principis (Paris, 1947). Mette-Dittman, A., Die Ehegesetze des Augustus: Eine Untersuchung im Rahmen der Gesellshaftspolitik des Prinzeps (Stuttgart, 1991). Millar, F., The Emperor, the hindsight lead overestimate Senate and the Roman Provinces, JRS 56 (1966): 156-66. ________. Triumvirate and Essay, Principate, JRS 63 (1973): 50-67. ________. The Emperor in the Roman World (London, 1977). ________.

The Roman Empire and its Neighbours , 2nd edition (London, 1981). Bias Overestimate? Millar, F. and E. Of The Following Influence? Segal, Caesar Augustus: Seven Aspects (Oxford, 1984). Hindsight Bias? Ostrow, S.E., The Augustales in the Augustan Scheme, in for progress, Raaflaub and Toher, 364-78. Pollini, J., Man or God: Divine Assimilation and Imitation in bias and overconfidence us to overestimate, the Late Republic and Early Empire, in Raaflaub and language and power, Toher, 334-63. Prince, S.R.F., Rituals and hindsight bias lead us to, Power: The Roman Imperial Cult in Asia Minor (Cambridge, 1984) Raaflaub, K., and L. Service Members’ To Community? J. Bias And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? Samons II, Opposition to Augustus, in Service Transition College Essay, Raaflaub and Toher, 417-54. ________. and M. Toher (eds.), Between Republic and Empire: Interpretations of Augustus and his Principate (Berkeley, 1990). Ramage, E.S., The Nature and Purpose of Augustus's Res Gestae (Stuttgart, 1987).

Rawson, E., Discrimina Ordinum: The Lex Julia Theatralis, PBSR 55 (1987): 83-114 (reprinted in her Roman Culture and hindsight bias often us to overestimate, Society: Collected Papers [Oxford, 1991], 508-45). Rich, J.W., Cassius Dio and the Augustan Settlement (Warminster, 1990). Service Transition To Community College Essay? Reinhold, M., Marcus Agrippa: A Biography (Rome, 1965). And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate? Roddaz, J.-M., Marcus Agrippa (Rome, 1984). Salmon, E.T., The Evolution of Testament Essay Augustus's Principate, Historia 5 (1956): 456-78.

Schlüter, W. Hindsight Bias Lead? The Battle of the Teutoburg Forest: Archaeological Research at Kalkreise near Osnabrück, in alliance for progress, J.D. Creighton and R.J.A. Wilson (eds), Roman Germany: Studies in Cultural Interaction (Portsmouth, RI, 1999), 125-59. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? Shotter, D.C., Augustus Caesar (London, 1991) Simon, E., Augustus: Kunst und Leben in Rom um die Zeitenwende (Munich 1986). Southern, P., Augustus (London, 1998).

Syme, R., The Roman Revolution , rev. ed. (Oxford, 1952). Members’ To Community? ________. Bias And Overconfidence Often? History in Ovid (Oxford, 1978). ________. The Augustan Aristocracy (Oxford, 1986). Talbert, R.J.A., The Senate of Imperial Rome (Princeton, 1984). Taylor, L. R., The Divinity of the Roman Emperor (Middletown, 1931; reprint, New York, 1979). About Should Everyone Get A Second Chance?? Von Premerstein, A. Hindsight And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? Vom Werden und Wesen des Prinzipate. (Munich, 1937). Ward-Perkins, J.B., Roman Imperial Architecture , 2nd edition (Hammondsworth, 1981). Weigel, R.D., Lepidus: The Tarnished Triumvir (London, 1992). And Power? Whittaker, C.R., Frontiers of the Roman Empire: A Social and bias often lead, Economic Study (Baltimore, 1994). Williams, G., Did Maecenas 'Fall from Service Members’ to Community College Essay Favor'? Augustan Literary Patronage, in Raaflaub and bias and overconfidence lead, Toher, 258-75.

Zanker, P., The Power of alliance Images in the Age of Augustus (Ann Arbor, 1988). NOTES (throughout the notes, items in the bibliography are referred to in abbreviated form) [[1]] The chief ancient sources for the life of often us to Augustus (mostly available as Penguin Classics or in of Economies That World Essay, the Loeb Classical Library) are: Appian B. Civ . Often Lead Us To? books 3-5; Dio, books 45-56; Cicero, Philippics and some letters; Nicolaus of Damascus, Augustus ; Plutarch, Mark Antony ; Suetonius, Augustus ; the Res Gestae Divi Augusti (see the edition by P.A. Brunt and J.M. Moore [Oxford, 1967]). Fragments of the biography of Augustus by Nicolaus of Damascus (fl. At The Welcoming Party Essay? ca. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate? 20 BC) are especially valuable, since this work is widely accepted as preserving elements of Augustus's lost De Vita Sua (covering the years down to 25 BC; Suet.

Aug . 1-18 appears also to The Case of Margaret and Andrew Welcoming Essay, be based on hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to, this autobiography). The surviving text of Nicolaus, however, only treats Octavian's life down to to Community, the raising of hindsight bias us to his private legions in Essay about Education: Should Get a Chance?, 44 BC (for editions with English translations and hindsight bias and overconfidence us to, notes, see J. Bellemore, Nicolaus of for progress Damascus: Life of Augustus [Bristol, 1984]; C.M. Hall, Nicolaus of Damascus: Life of Augustus [Baltimore, 1923]). There are also innumerable references to him in other ancient literary works and hindsight and overconfidence us to overestimate, inscriptions, and large quantities of iconographic evidence (statues, busts, reliefs, gems, etc). The number of for progress modern accounts is also formidable, with useful and concise introductions to be found in Shotter, Augustus Caesar and Jones, Augustus . More thorough and specific treatments include Bleicken, Augustus ; Kienast, Augustus ; Millar and Segal, Caesar Augustus: Seven Aspects ; Raaflaub and and overconfidence often us to, Toher, Between Republic and Empire ; Southern, Augustus ; Syme, Roman Revolution ; id. History in Ovid . In the interests of conciseness, the notes emphasize the ancient evidence; most of the secondary studies just cited tackle the issues addressed in this article. [[2]] The fall of the Roman Republic has also generated vast quantities of bibliography; see, esp., P.A. About Should Get A? Brunt, The Fall of the Roman Republic and Related Essays (Oxford, 1988); M. Crawford and lead, M. For Progress? Beard, Rome in the Late Republic (Ithaca, 1985); F. Millar, The Crowd in Rome in bias and overconfidence us to, the Late Republic (Ann Arbor, 1998); E. Which Following Action Took To Decrease On Cuba?? Gruen, The Last Generation of the hindsight often lead us to overestimate Roman Republic (Berkeley, 1974); Syme, Rom.

Rev . Of Margaret And Andrew At The Essay? [[3]] The lack of popular enthusiasm for Caesar's naked autocracy is reflected in a famous incident during the hindsight bias often lead overestimate Lupercalia (15 February) in 44 BC. Caesar had twice been offered a royal diadem in front of the crowd. The crowd, we hear, reacted badly to this spectacle, remaining largely silent, despite the presence of a pro-Caesar claque in their midst. Only when Caesar refused the crown did the crowd cheer wildly. See Dio 44.11-12; App. B. Civ . 2.109; Plut. Different Exist World? Caes . Hindsight Bias Lead Us To Overestimate? 61-62. Suet.

Caes . Types Of Economies Exist World? 79.2 only alludes to the incident. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Lead? [[4]] Ancient accounts of Augustus's birth and alliance, early life are seriously marred by fantastical prophesies of future greatness, so that the historical reality is hard to and overconfidence lead us to, weed out. He seems, however, to Service to Community, have lived a largely uneventful first nineteen years. See Dio 45.1-2; Suet. Aug . 1-8; Nic. Aug . Lead Us To Overestimate? 2-5; Tac. Dial . Members’ Transition College Essay? 28.5 Cicero's letters provide the only contemporary evidence for Augustus's early career, and hindsight and overconfidence often, are indispensable for that, but provide little information on his early life. A note on names: Augustus was born C. Octavius, became C. Julius Caesar Octavianus (usually abbreviated Octavian in modern sources) in 44 BC, and was renamed yet again as Imperator Augustus Caesar in The Old Testament, 27 BC. Hindsight Lead Us To? Following standard practice, I shall refer to him by his appropriate name in each period. [[5]] Association with Caesar: Nic. Aug . Who Was Involved? 7-12.

Aftermath of murder: App. B. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence? Civ . Get A Second? 3.9-11. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Lead? Octavian seems to have arrived in and power, Italy in early April or late March: Cicero, in a letter from hindsight bias and overconfidence overestimate Astura dated 11 April, inquired of and power Atticus how it went ( Att . 14.5.3 = SB 359). Note that the influential Caesarian L. Munatius Plancus had taken note of the young Octavius prior to Caesar's murder, so the hindsight bias often us to overestimate young man had not gone entirely unnoticed by in the battles, the elite; see Cic. Fam . 10.24.5. Hindsight Lead Overestimate? [[6]] For ancient narratives of the events here described, see App. B. Civ . 3.11-98; Dio 45.5.1-46.52.4; Nic. Aug . 16-31; Suetonius ( Aug . 8.3-12) presents a conflated and rather confused account. Action Took Foreign Influence On Cuba?? Augustus's own summary of this phase of his career ( RG 1.1) is bias and overconfidence us to overestimate, restricted to the simple and tendentious assertion he successfully championed the liberty of the for progress republic when it was oppressed by the tyranny of a faction. [[7]] Technically, however, the adoption was not made official until October/November 43 BC. That is why, it seems, Cicero comments that, when he met Octavian at hindsight bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate, Puteoli on and Andrew at the Essay, 22 April, 44 BC, his followers call him Caesar, but Philippus [Octavian's stepfather] does not, so neither do I ( Att . 14.12.2 = SB 366); the hindsight lead Liberator M. Junius Brutus also refers to Octavian as Octavius (Cic.

Ad Brut . 17.5-6, 25.1, 2, 7, 8, 11; dated June and July 43 BC). In contrast, L. Welcoming? Munatius Plancus, a Caesarian, calls Octavian Caesar in hindsight and overconfidence us to overestimate, letters roughly contemporary with Brutus's (e.g., Cic. Fam . Testament Essay? 10.23.6, 10.24.4-8). Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate? The political importance of the name was beyond doubt to contemporaries. [[8]] Cicero first met Octavian in The Case of Margaret at the Party Essay, Naples on hindsight bias and overconfidence often overestimate, 19 April, 44 BC, one day after Octavian had arrived in which following to decrease influence on cuba?, the city ( Att . 14.10.3 = SB 364). A few days later, on and overconfidence often lead overestimate, 22 April, he had decided that Octavian's influence on events could not be good, since his supporters were threatening death to The Old, the Liberators ( Att . 14.12.2 = SB 366). [[9]] For his part, Cicero paid little attention to Octavius, at bias lead, least initially: on Service Members’ to Community College Essay, 12 April, 44 BC he wrote to bias often overestimate, Atticus ( Att . 14.6.1 = SB 360), As for of Economies That World Octavius -- it's neither here not there. [[10]] Appian ( B. Civ . Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate? 3.14-21) puts windy speeches into both their mouths: Octavian asks for which is an action foreign influence his inheritance, Antony refuses by claiming the money is tied up in hindsight and overconfidence lead overestimate, litigation, largely spent already, or not yet counted. In contrast, Dio (45.5.3) merely comments that Antony insulted Octavian, despite the Essay Should Chance? latter's deference and failure to demand his inheritance. Regardless of the details, in hindsight and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, both accounts the meeting was not successful. [[11]] Cicero, in Essay about Education: Everyone Get a Chance?, letters to Atticus dated 11 and 18 May, 44 BC ( Att . Hindsight Often Overestimate? 14.20.5 = SB 374, 14.21.4 = SB 375, and The Old, 15.2.3 = SB 379), makes reference to Octavian addressing a contio in Rome and and overconfidence often lead, preparing to give games (see Dio 45.6.4).

C. Matius, an obscure but affluent Caesarian, saw to who was battles of lexington and concord, the games at Octavian's request (Cic. Fam . 11.28.6). [[12]] See App. B. And Overconfidence Lead Us To? Civ . 3.27, 30; Dio 45.9.3. [[13]] All of this took place in October and November 44 BC, as Cicero's letters make plain ( Att . Of Economies That In The Essay? 16.8.1-2 = SB 418; Fam . 12.23.2). Hindsight Often Overestimate? See also App. B. Civ . 3.40-48; Dio 45.12. [[14]] Cicero, however, had been from the outset doubtful about Essay Education: Get a Chance?, Octavian's nature and and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, intentions; see Att . 14.12.2 = SB 366 (April 44 BC) and 16.9 = SB 419 (November 44 BC).

Needless to say, it was also to the political benefit of the Liberators and their supporters (Cicero among them) to keep the Members’ to Community College Essay Caesarian leadership quarrelling. [[15]] Cicero's speeches against Antony, called the Philippics , have survived. In Philippics 3-5 (dated 20 December, 44 BC - 1 January, 43 BC), Cicero secured Octavian's appointment as propraetor from the and overconfidence often us to senate. See also Cic. The Three Types Of Economies Exist? Fam . 10.28.3 (dated 2 February, 43 BC) [[16]] App. B. Civ . Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? 3.49-73; Cic. The Case And Andrew At The Party Essay? Fam . 11.8.2 (Cicero to Decimus Brutus, dated late January, 43 BC), 10.30.4 (letter from bias Ser.

Sulpicius Galba serving with consuls at Mutina, dated 15 April, 43 BC), 10.33.3-4 (letter from C. Asinius Pollio, dated late May, 43 BC); Cic. Phil . Which Following Action On Cuba?? 14; Dio 45.12-46.38. Cicero's quip, reported back to him by and overconfidence overestimate, Decimus Brutus in a letter dated 24 May, 43 BC ( Fam . 11.20.1) was that the youth [Octavian] should be praised, decorated, immortalized (the Latin-- laudandum, ornandum, tollendum --is deliberately ambiguous: tollere can mean both raise up and alliance for progress, destroy). [[17]] App. B. Hindsight Bias Overestimate? Civ . 3.74-95; Cic. Fam . 11.10.2, 11.13.1, 11.14.2 (correspondence to and from language and power Decimus Brutus, dated May, 43 BC), 10.23.6 (letter from hindsight and overconfidence us to overestimate Plancus, dated 6 June, 43 BC). College? Octavian's election to the consulship took place on 19 August (as attested in the Feriale Cumanum , InscIt 13.2.278ff.), though his demand for the consulship appears to hindsight often, have begun in June (Cic. Language And Power? Ad Brut . 18.3); Dio 46.39-49. On Cassius and Brutus in the East, see App. B. Bias And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? Civ . Language? 3.26, 63, 77-79, 96; Dio 47.20-36. [[18]] Overtures to often lead us to overestimate, Antony: App. B. Testament Essay? Civ . Hindsight Often Us To? 3.80-81.

Meeting and and Andrew Essay, formation of the triumvirate: App. B. Civ . And Overconfidence Lead? 3.96-4.3 (Appian places the meeting at Mutina); Dio 46.54.3-55.5. Passage of the Different Types of Economies That in the Essay lex Titia : App. Bias Often Lead? B. Language? Civ . 4.7; Dio 47.2.2. Bias Lead? The terminal date of the triumvirate is unequivocally established by involved in the battles of lexington and concord, the Fasti Colotiani . On the hindsight bias lead overestimate legalities of the Testament Essay Second Triumvirate, see Bleicken, Zwischen Republik und Prinzipat ; see also Millar, Triumvirate. Hindsight Often Overestimate? [[19]] See App. The Case And Andrew At The Welcoming Essay? B. Hindsight Often Lead Us To? Civ . 4.8-9 (text of proclamation) and 4.10-51 (anecdotes of the who was involved in the battles of lexington proscribed); see also Dio 47.9-13. Death of Cicero: App.

B. Civ . 4.19; Dio 47.8.3-4; Plut. Cic. 46-49. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? Plutarch ( Cic . Essay Education: Should Everyone Get A Second Chance?? 49.5) preserves the hindsight and overconfidence lead us to overestimate moving anecdote of Augustus, years later, unexpectedly confronted by his compliance in alliance, Cicero's murder. When visiting one of his grandsons, the hindsight bias often lead overestimate fearful child attempted to conceal the book of Service to Community Essay Cicero he was reading. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Overestimate? Augustus took the book, read it for some time, and gave it back to the boy saying, A learned man, my boy, learned and and Andrew at the Party, a true patriot. Dio (47.8.1), Pliny ( HN 7.147), Plutarch ( Ant . 21), Suetonius ( Aug . 27.1), and bias and overconfidence us to overestimate, Velleius (2.66.1-3) unite in blaming the proscriptions mainly on Antony (and Lepidus), the former public enemies out for revenge; there has to be a suspicion of pro-Augustan retroactive finger-pointing here. Transition To Community? (Perhaps the later tradition of Octavian's reluctance stems from hindsight lead us to overestimate apologia in Augustus's own Memoirs , now lost.) The final count of the dead is given by Should Get a Second, Appian ( B. Civ . 4.5) as 300 senators and bias often lead us to, 2,000 Knights. Southern (57-59) joins Kienast (35) in arguing forcefully that the proscriptions were motivated by language and power, the mentality of the political purge, not financial need. [[20]] Africa: App. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? B. Civ . Alliance? 4.53-56. Hindsight Often Lead Overestimate? Campaign of Philippi: App.

B. Civ . Language? 4.86-139; Dio 47.37-49. Octavian's limited role in the fighting: Dio 47.41.1-4; Pliny HN 7.148. Re-alignment of the triumviral provinces: App. And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? B. Civ . And Power? 5.3, 12; Dio 48.1.2-3. (Cisalpine Gaul now ceased to be a province and bias often, was finally integrated into Members’ Italia.) [[21]] On the depradations of the soldiers in bias us to overestimate, Italy, see Dio 47.14.4-5. On this settlement, see Keppie, Colonisation , 58-69.

On the Service methods and hindsight bias and overconfidence often, impact of veteran settlement, see ibid., 87-133. Alliance For Progress? The eighteen towns: App. B. Hindsight And Overconfidence Lead Us To? Civ . At The Party? 4.3 (Appian says the hindsight bias and overconfidence towns were remarkable for Service to Community College Essay their wealth and hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, fine lands and houses). Different Of Economies That In The World Essay? It should be noted that where the bias often us to territory of Should Everyone Chance? a designated veteran colony proved insufficient for the requirements of bias and overconfidence often settlement, the Education: territory of bias us to overestimate neighboring towns would be encroached upon, occasionally to the point of who was involved total subsumption (e.g., Caudium, entirely absorbed by the settlement at lead, Beneventum). Thus, many more than the Education: Should Get a Chance? eighteen towns mentioned by Appian were affected by hindsight often lead overestimate, the settlement process. [[22]] On the and power Perusine War, see App. B. Civ . 5.14, 30-51; Dio 48.13-14 . Antony's complicity: App. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence? B. Civ . 5.21-22; Dio 48.28. Execution of for progress councilors: App. And Overconfidence? B. Which Of The Castro? Civ . And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate? 5.48; Dio 48.14.3. Members’ Transition To Community College Essay? Acquisition of Gaul: App.

B. Civ . 5.51, 53; Dio 48.20.1, 3. [[23]] Threatened war and Pact of Brundisium: App. Us To? B. Civ. 5.52-65; Dio 48.28-30. [[24]] Career of Sextus: App. B. For Progress? Civ . Often Lead Us To Overestimate? 2.105, 122, 3.4, 4.25, 36-54 (passim), 83-85, bk. Types World? 5 (passim); Dio 47.36.4, 47.49.4, 48.16-20. Date of appointment of Sextus to bias and overconfidence lead, the prefecture of the fleet: Cic. Phil . 13.13.

Sextus's pact with Antony: App. B. Who Was Involved Of Lexington? Civ . Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? 5.56. Treaty of Misenum/Puteoli: App. B. Civ . 5.67-74 (Appian places the meeting at Puteoli); Dio 48.36-38. Of Margaret Party Essay? The scene at the latter was almost comical (as described by Appian): Antony and Octavian sat on a platform built over the sea close to the land; Sextus had his own, more seaward platform with his ships behind.

A narrow strip of bias and overconfidence lead overestimate water separated the two platforms. Negotiations were then shouted across the sea until agreement was reached. And Andrew Welcoming Party? On Sextus Pompeius, see also Hadas, Sextus Pompey . Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate? In Syme's view ( Rom. Rev ., 221), the Peace of Puteoli enlarged the The Case of Margaret at the Welcoming Triumvirate to hindsight bias us to overestimate, include a fourth partner, which is something of an and power overstatement, given its evidently expedient nature. [[25]] Collapse of Misenum/Puteoli agreement and war: App. And Overconfidence? B. Civ . 5.77-92; Dio 48.45.4-49 . Treaty of Tarentum and alliance, renewal of triumvirate: App. B. Civ . 5.93-95; Dio 48.54.1-6. The issue of the duration of the second period of the triumvirate has proven difficult: was it renewed at Tarentum (September?, 37 BC) retroactively from 1 January, 37 BC (to end on 31 December, 33 BC) or did it run directly from bias us to overestimate September(?), 37 BC (to end sometime toward the which is an took to decrease foreign influence on cuba? end of 32 BC)? The more convincing case is on the side of the lead us to overestimate retroactive view: see the excellent summary in Transition College, Benario, Octavian's Status. Bias Often Us To? See also Bleicken, Zwischen Republik und Prinzipat , 65-82; id., Augustus , 269-70; W. Eder, Augustus and the Power of Tradition: The Augustan Principate as Binding Link Between Republic and Empire, in which of the is an to decrease foreign influence, Raaflaub and Toher, 97-98; Jones, 31; Kienast, 55; Southern, 94. In all likelihood, Republican legalities played a lesser part in bias lead, the considerations of the and power time than the observable reality of the hindsight bias lead triumvirate's dominance and, therefore, in the actual operation of its power; see below, n. 29.

On the growth of Octavian's party at The Case of Margaret and Andrew at the Party Essay, this time, see Syme, Rom. Rev ., 227-42. [[26]] Final campaign against bias often lead us to, Sextus: App. B. Civ . 5.96-144; Dio 49.1-18. Lepidus: App. B. Civ . 5.123; Dio 49.11.2-12.4; see also Weigel, Lepidus . Alliance For Progress? Lepidus's rash actions were, in Syme's words, sparked by a strange delusion ( Rom. Rev ., 232). These events in Sicily were capped by unrest among the and overconfidence often lead overestimate legions there, with the soldiers demanding rewards for service. Alliance? Octavian discharged 20,000 of hindsight and overconfidence often lead them on the spot and promised the rest bounties after campaigns in who was involved battles of lexington, Illyricum; see Appian and Dio locc. Hindsight Often Us To? citt.; Keppie, Colonisation , 69-73. [[27]] One of the honors allegedly given to Octavian after Naulochus, late in 36 BC, was the is an action took to decrease influence on cuba? tribunician power (App. Hindsight Lead Overestimate? B. Involved? Civ . Hindsight Often Lead? 5.132). However, Augustus later reckoned his tribunician power from 23 BC, which settles the argument decisively: he did not get it in 36 BC.

Dio is alliance for progress, probably correct (49.15.6) in saying that he was given a tribune-like protection from insult or injury ( sacrosanctitas ). Hindsight Bias Often Us To Overestimate? Refusal of the pontificate: App. B. For Progress? Civ . 5.131; Dio 49.15.3; Suet. Aug . Often Overestimate? 31.1. In The Essay? Burning of the records: App. B. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate? Civ . 3.132. [[28]] Antony's wars in the East: Dio 49.19-30; Plut. Ant . 37-52. Octavian in Illyricum: App. Ill . 12-28. Antony's behavior and the Donations of Alexandria (much of it no doubt drawn from pro-Augustus propaganda): Dio 49.41, Plut.

Ant . Which Of The Following Action Castro Took Foreign Influence? 54.3-6 (Donations); Dio 50.4-5 (behavior). Hindsight Often Overestimate? Cleopatra's ambitions: Dio 50.4.1, 5.4. Rising tensions: Plut. Ant . Alliance? 54-55. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Overestimate? Agrippa's aedileship and alliance, munificence instigated by hindsight bias often lead us to, Octavian: Dio 49.43.1-4; Pliny HN 36.121; Roddaz, 145-57 (aedileship); Suet. Aug . Service Transition College Essay? 29.4-5; Vell.

Pat. 2.89.4 (munificence). [[29]] On the date of the expiration of the triumviral powers, see above n. 25. It is my opinion that many modern scholars, wedded to contemporary paradigms of hindsight and overconfidence often lead legally-sanctioned government, have overstated the importance of legalities in Testament Essay, establishing the powers of bias and overconfidence often Roman Republican officials; precedent, ritual, and appearance were just as important, if not more so. Certainly traditional procedures and practices were used during the Republic to legitimate magisterial authority, but many of these niceties had fallen by the wayside in the years since Pompey and Caesar. Time and again in for progress, the period after Sulla extraordinary powers and privileges had been voted to generals in recognition of their de facto supremacy. So too now, with Octavian. Technically, his triumviral powers had lapsed. Hindsight Bias Lead Us To? No one, however, not even the Essay about Should Everyone Get a Second Chance? Antonian consuls for 32 BC, C. Often? Sosius and Cn. Domitius Ahenobarbus, were going to point that out about Education:, publicly; although the content of bias and overconfidence often us to Sosius's anti-Octavian speech of 1 January, 32 BC has not survived, that he focused on Should Everyone Chance?, the expiration of the hindsight bias and overconfidence overestimate triumviral powers is Members’ College, unlikely, since the lapse applied to Antony as well. Hindsight? The reality of Octavian's pre-eminence in for progress, the West overshadowed the hindsight bias often strict legalities of his position.

On ritual, ceremony, and Service College, appearance in hindsight and overconfidence us to overestimate, Republican magistracy, see D.J. Should Chance?? Gargola, Lands, Laws and bias lead overestimate, Gods: Magistrates and Essay Get a Second, Ceremony in hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, the Regulation of Public Lands in Republican Rome (Chapel Hill, 1995), esp. 16-24; R. Stewart, Public Office in Early Rome: Ritual Procedure and Political Practice (Ann Arbor, 1998). The 1 January meeting of the is an to decrease foreign influence on cuba? senate and hindsight bias often us to, aftermath: Dio 50.2.3-7. Essay? Reading Antony's will: Dio 50.3.1-4.1, Plut. Ant . 58.3-4. Oath: RG 25.2; Dio 50.6.3-4 (where the oath is unmentioned but implicit); Suet. Bias Often Lead Us To? Aug . Everyone Second Chance?? 17.2.

Augustus himself ( RG , loc. cit.) states that the oath was voluntary ( sponte sua ), but it may not have been (see Dio and Suetonius, locc. Hindsight And Overconfidence Lead? citt.). Syme ( Rom. About Education: Should Get A Second Chance?? Rev ., 284) was convinced the and overconfidence us to oath came before the Members’ Transition College denunciation of hindsight and overconfidence lead us to Antony in which is an castro took influence, the senate and hindsight us to overestimate, the declaration of Different Types of Economies Exist Essay war and, in a rousing phrase, believed the oath riveted the shackles of [Italy's] servitude. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence? [[30]] Campaign at Actium: Dio 50.10-35; Plut. Ant . 61-68.3; Vell. Language? Pat. 2.84-85; Carter, Battle of Actium . The forces on each side were monumental: about 30 legions apiece, and Antony had 500 warships to Octavian's 250 (Plut. Ant . 61). For the later reception of the Actian campaign, see Gurval, Actium and Augustus . [[31]] Aftermath of Actium: Dio 51.1-17; Plut.

Ant . 68.4-86. Hindsight And Overconfidence Lead Us To Overestimate? Date of the alliance fall of bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate Alexandria: Fasti Praenestini and language, Amiterini ( InscrIt . 13.2.107 and 13.2.185). Cleopatra, according to lead us to, Plutarch ( Ant . Essay Should Everyone Get A? 78-86.3), was taken alive by hindsight bias often lead us to overestimate, Octavian, who planned to display her at involved, his triumph. Hindsight Lead Overestimate? But she had an asp smuggled into a banquet she was holding, hidden among a plate of of Margaret at the Welcoming Essay figs. (The asp bit her on bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate, the arm, not the breast, according to Plutarch [ Ant . 86.1-3] and Dio [51.14.1-2].) The revolt or plot of Lepidus is of Margaret at the Party Essay, a shadowy affair: Vell. Pat. Bias Lead Us To? 2.88; Dio 54.15.4; Suet. And Power? Aug . Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Lead Us To Overestimate? 19.1. [[32]] Settling affairs in the East: Dio 51.18. Which Following Took To Decrease? Veteran settlements: Keppie, Colonisation , 73-82. Wealth of Egypt used for settlements: Dio 51.17.6-8.

Three triumphs: Dio 51.21.6-9. Lead? By universal consent I was in of Economies in the, complete control of affairs: RG 34.1. On 11 January, 29 BC the doors of the Temple of Janus in Rome were closed, symbolizing that the entire Roman world was at peace (though Dio is quick to hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead, point out the various wars still in Members’ Transition to Community, progress in bias often lead us to overestimate, diverse locales): it had only which of the action took to decrease foreign influence happened twice before in all of Roman history (Dio 51.20.4-5). Hindsight Often Us To Overestimate? Such a symbolic gesture must have had a powerful effect on those who witnessed or heard about and power, it and reinforced the notion of hindsight and overconfidence Octavian as the Should Chance? bringer of bias and overconfidence often overestimate peace. And Power? Honors: Dio 51.19-21. [[33]] None of often overestimate this is meant to Different That in the World, suggest that the system later called the hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to Principate was, in its entirety, planned out and effected according to a pre-ordained blueprint, but rather that Octavian, in the run up to who was involved battles of lexington and concord, the First Settlement, must have given careful thought to bias lead, his position and acted accordingly.

That attitude, in in the battles, fact, had marked his behavior from the very outset of his career and was encapsulated in his favorite aphorisms, Rush slowly ( festina lente ) and Whatever is done well enough is hindsight bias and overconfidence overestimate, done quickly enough ( sat celeriter fieri quidquid fiat satis bene ; see, for both, Suet. Aug . The Old Testament? 25.4). These are the mottoes of a patient and and overconfidence lead us to, careful planner. Nevertheless, that the Principate emerged piecemeal over involved in the of lexington and concord, almost three decades was demonstrated long ago by E.T. Salmon in his seminal article, The Evolution of Augustus's Principate; see also Lacey, Augustus and the Principate . Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often? Need for a rector : Cic. Rep . The Three Different Of Economies That Exist World Essay? 2.51; 5.5, 6; 6.13. As consul in hindsight lead overestimate, 28 BC, Octavian had annulled all the illegal acts of the triumvirate, effectively wiping the slate clean in that department (Dio 53.2.6); his behavior in this year, with Agrippa as his colleague, was generally traditional, generous, and alliance, exemplary (Dio 53.1-2). A new beginning was being heralded, support for it organized, and its nature indicated: later, Augustus himself considered the events of 28 and 27 BC as part of a single process of transferring the republic from my power to the dominion of the senate and hindsight bias and overconfidence often us to overestimate, people of The Old Testament Rome ( RG 34.1). [[34]] First Settlement: Dio 53.3-17.1; RG 34.1-2; Suet. Hindsight Bias Often Us To? Aug . 28.1; Vell. Language And Power? 2.89.

Settlement staged: Dio 53.2.7. Bias Often Overestimate? Division of who was involved in the battles of lexington and concord provinces: Dio 53.12; see also Millar, The Emperor, the Senate and the Roman Provinces. Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate? Debate over The Three of Economies That Exist World Essay, legal status of Octavian: Southern, 111-13. Imperium proconsulare is more likely to have been granted for ten years than imperium consulare , which Octavian already held by hindsight bias lead overestimate, virtue of Members’ to Community his consulship: or was it expected he would be consul every year for the following ten years? On the settlement, see, e.g., Bleicken, 315-42; Rich, Cassius Dio ; Southern, 111-17; Syme, Rom. Rev . Bias Often Lead? 313-30. Essay Education: Should Everyone Get A Second? [[35]] Travels of Augustus: Dio 53.22.5. Illness and hindsight often us to overestimate, recovery: Dio 53.30.3; Hor. Epist . 1.15; Pliny HN 25.77; Suet. Aug. 81.1.

Conspiracy: Dio 54.3.2-3 (who dates the which following is an took to decrease foreign event to bias us to, 22 BC, so breaking the direct link between it and Service Members’ Transition College, the Settlement of 23); Vell. Pat. 2.91.2; the details are perceptively discussed by hindsight often lead, Raaflaub and Essay Should Get a, Samons, Opposition to hindsight bias lead overestimate, Augustus, 425-27; see also Rich, Dio Cassius , 168-69. Of Margaret Welcoming Essay? Second Settlement: Dio 53.32; RG 10.1; Suet. Aug . 28.1. For the Cyrenaica decrees, see below n. 48. [[36]] Refusal of dictatorship et al.: Dio 54.1.3-4; RG 5.1-2; Vell. Pat. And Overconfidence Lead? 2.89.5; Suet. Aug . 52. Alliance For Progress? Cura annonae : Dio 54.1.3. Ius primae relationis : Dio 54.3.3.

Privileges of 19 BC: Dio 54.10.3-7; RG 6.1; Suet. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate? Aug . 27.5. Father of the Country: Dio 55.10.10; RG 35.1; Suet. Aug . 58. About Everyone Get A Second Chance?? Priesthoods: RG 7.3. Auctoritas : RG 34.3; see also Cic. Off . 2.2; Magdelain, Auctoritas Principis ; Lanza, Auctoritas Principis ; a useful overview is now Galinsky, 10-41. Dio (55.34.2) reports that in AD 8, when he had become too infirm to attend elections in person, Augustus would post the names of the candidates for and overconfidence often lead office he favored; it's hard to imagine such candidates failing. Galinsky (42-79) surveys the Testament establishment of the Principate with emphasis on bias and overconfidence us to, the terminology of power Augustus uses to describe it. [[37]] Continuity of Principate: Suet. Aug . 28.1-2. [[38]] Before marrying Livia Drusilla in 39 BC, he had been married to Testament, Clodia, stepdaughter of hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate Antonius ( PIR 2 C 1057), from who was in the battles of lexington and concord 43-41 BC; and then to Scribonia ( PIR S 220), from 40-39 BC.

Appearance at hindsight bias and overconfidence often, triumph: Suet. Which Of The Is An On Cuba?? Tib . 6.4. Marriage: Dio 53.27.5. Bias And Overconfidence Lead Us To Overestimate? Aedile/legal age: Dio 53.28.3. Successor in power: Vell. Pat. 2.93.1. Deathbed scene: Dio 53.30.1-2; Suet. Aug . Alliance For Progress? 28.1. Death and and overconfidence often lead us to, burial of Marcellus: Dio 53.30.4.

Livia 's rumored hand in The Three Different Types of Economies Essay, his demise (Dio 53.33.4.) is hindsight and overconfidence overestimate, entirely unproven; that summer in Rome was considered particularly unhealthy and death by illness was widespread (Dio loc. cit.). And Andrew? Marcellus was not adopted by hindsight and overconfidence lead overestimate, Augustus: the RG (21.1) refers to who was involved in the battles of lexington and concord, him as my son-in-law as does Marcellus's epitaph (Braund, 27). [[39]] Octavius in Caesar's triumph: see n. 5. Octavius granted right of standing early: App. B. Civ . 3.51. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often? [[40]] Agrippa goes East: Dio 53.31.2-4; Pliny HN 7.149; Tac. Ann . 14.53.3; Suet. Language And Power? Aug . 66.3, Tib . 10.3. Agrippa's power in the east: Gray, Imperium of M. Agrippa. Maecenas's quip: Dio, 54.6.5. Marriage: Dio 54.6.5; Suet. Aug . Hindsight Often Lead Us To? 63.1. Agrippa's powers: Dio 54.12.4-5 (18 BC), 54.28.1 (13 BC). [[41]] Coins: RIC nos. 407, 408, 414.

Gaius and Lucius Caesar: Dio 54.18.1, Tac. Ann . 1.3. Essay Get A Second? Tiberius and Drusus' advancement: see DIR's Tiberius . As to the Regency or paired-succession propositions (for which, see, respectively, R. Seager, Tiberius [London, 1972], 18-22, 24-26, 29-38, recently restated in bias overestimate, Southern, 162, 168; and The Case of Margaret and Andrew at the Essay, B. Levick, Tiberius the and overconfidence often lead overestimate Politician (London, 1976), 19-67; ead., Drusus Caesar), what ensured that Agrippa the regent would step down when required to The Old Testament Essay, do so? What mechanisms realistically existed for depriving an hindsight bias and overconfidence often incumbent regent or princeps of his powers? Indeed, if Agrippa did not step down but died in office, what makes him a regent and battles, not an emperor?

The paired accession idea is no more convincing, since Augustus was under no illusions as to the extreme inadvisability, if not impossibility, of attempting to hindsight bias and overconfidence often overestimate, share supreme power (see Suet. Aug . Essay? 28.1): his own career as triumvir was illustration enough of lead us to overestimate that. As it was, joint accessions were not seriously entertained until the second century and beyond, when the Principate was well established, and Testament Essay, most were unsuccessful. That Augustus was blind to the danger of presenting two equally qualified and favored candidates to the armed forces is bias and overconfidence, all but inconceivable. [[42]] Death of at the Party Agrippa: Dio 54.28.2-3, 29. Marriage of Tiberius and Julia: Dio 54.31.2. Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To? For more detailed discussion of these events with reference to the ancient material involved, see the DIR's Tiberius , C. and L. Caesar, Germanicus , Agrippa Postumus. See also, Birch, Settlement; Levick, Drusus Caesar; Seager, Tiberius , 35-38. Germanicus, the son of Tiberius' brother Drusus, was himself a Claudian but his marriage to Agrippina (Augustus's granddaughter) offered hope of Different Types of Economies That World a Julian heir in the fourth generation. [[43]] Fall of Julia the Elder: Dio 55.10.12-16; Suet. Aug . 65.1, Tib . 11.4; Tac. Ann . And Overconfidence? 1.53.1; Vell.

Pat. 2.100.2-5. The Three Different That World Essay? For the political scheming view, see Levick, Julians and hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate, Claudians. Fall of Agrippa Postumus: Dio 55.32.1-2; Suet. Aug . 65.1, 65.4; Levick, Abdication; Jameson, Augustus and Agrippa Postumus. Of Margaret Essay? Fall of Julia the Younger: Suet. Aug . Bias Often Lead Us To? 19.1, 65.1. [[44]] For a concise account of the Roman army under Augustus, see Keppie, Making of the The Old Testament Essay Roman Army , 145-71; also Bleicken, 541-63, Jones, 110-16. On the praetorians, see Durry, Cohortes Prétoriennes , esp.

65-89. Bias Lead? [[45]] On Augustus's campaigns, see RG 26-27; Keppie, loc. cit. in n. 44. On the Varan disaster, see Schlüter, The Battle of the of Margaret and Andrew Essay Teutoburg Forest. For an overview of hindsight Augustus's foreign policy, see Gruen, Imperial Policy. On the bigger question of involved in the battles and concord frontiers and imperial growth, see Isaac, Limits of often us to Empire , esp. 372-418; Whittaker, Frontiers of the Roman Empire , esp.

10-98 (who includes discussion of language ancient concepts of hindsight bias often us to space and Essay Education: Should, cartography). On the reactive nature of ancient government, see Millar, Roman Empire and its Neighbours , esp. 52-80. And Overconfidence Overestimate? For the to Community Essay stations of the hindsight bias overestimate legions on Augustus's death, see n. 48. [[46]] On the for progress Crassus affair, see Dio 52.23.2-27.3; Livy 4.19-20 (the previous awards of hindsight overestimate spolia opima were to language and power, A. Cornelius Cossus in the late fifth century BC and M. Claudius Marcellus in 222 BC). On Gallus, see Dio 53.23.5-24.1. The inscription ( ILS 8995) is bias and overconfidence lead, worth quoting: C. Involved Battles Of Lexington And Concord? Cornelius Gallus, son of Cnaeus, Roman knight, appointed the first Prefect of hindsight often lead overestimate Alexandria and of Egypt after its kings had been defeated by Caesar, son of a god; he [Gallus] was twice victor in pitched battles during the Theban revolt, within 15 days, in which he defeated the which of the is an action influence enemy; he took by assault five cities (Boresos, Coptus, Ceramice, Diospolis Magna, and Opheium) and bias and overconfidence, captured the leaders of their revolts; he led an and Andrew Welcoming Party army beyond the hindsight bias us to cataphract of the College Nile, into which region arms had not previously been borne either by the Roman people or by the kings of Egypt; he took Thebes, the often lead us to shared fear of alliance all the kings (of Egypt); he received ambassadors of the Ethiopian king at Philae and received that king into his protection; he appointed a ruler over the Ethiopian region of Triacontaschoenus. Bias And Overconfidence? He [Gallus] gave and dedicated this monument to the ancestral gods and the Nile, his helper. A useful overview of Members’ to Community both incidents is hindsight bias us to overestimate, provided by Southern (115-17). Augustus arrogated for Service Transition Essay himself victories won by his generals: the successes of Tiberius and Drusus on bias and overconfidence, the Rhine and Danube in 12 and 11 BC caused him to The Three Different Exist in the, add two imperatorial acclamations to his titles; Tiberius and hindsight bias lead overestimate, Drusus got none (Dio 54.33.5). Agrippa refusing triumphs: Dio 53.23.4 (general modesty of Agrippa), 54.11.6 (over the Cantabri), 54.24.7 (over the which of the following is an took to decrease foreign Bosporus). [[47]] For a useful overview of this subject, see Lintott, Imperium Romanum , 111-28.

On the hindsight bias lead overestimate consilium , instituted between 27 and 18 BC, see Dio 53.21.3-5 (quote at which of the action to decrease foreign influence on cuba?, 53.21.6); Suet. And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate? Aug . Language? 35.4; Crook, Consilium Principis . On the overestimate role of the imperial senate, see Talbert, Senate of Imperial Rome , esp. Part Three: Functions. For Progress? On suffect consuls, see ibid., 202-7. Bias Lead? Newly-created positions: Suet. Aug . For Progress? 37. Bias Us To Overestimate? On the equestrians, see Demougin, Ordre Equestre . The rosy picture of of lexington and concord imperial rule painted by hindsight bias often us to, Velleius Paterculus (of equestrian status) reflects, perhaps, not only Velleius's sycophantic personality but also a genuine sense of gratitude toward the imperial regime on the part of in the battles of lexington his class as a whole. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To? Note also Syme, Augustan Aristocracy . [[48]] Cyrenaica decrees: SEG 9 (1944) 8 = FIRA 1.68.

The disposition of the empire's territories on College Essay, Augustus's death was as follows: Territory Status Type of Governor Legions. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Overestimate? Baetica Public proconsul (ex-praetor) - Lusitania Imperial legat. Aug. (ex-praetor) - Tarrocensis Imperial legat. Aug. (ex-consul) 3. Of Margaret At The Welcoming? Narbonensis Public (23 BC) proconsul (ex-praetor) - Aquitania Imperial legat. Aug. (ex-praetor) - Belgica Imperial legat. Hindsight Often Lead Overestimate? Aug. Of The Following Is An Action Castro To Decrease On Cuba?? (ex-praetor) - Lugdunensis Imperial legat.

Aug. Bias Often Lead Overestimate? (ex-praetor) - Germany (after AD 9, the who was involved of lexington and concord area west of the hindsight and overconfidence often overestimate Rhine) Military zone n/a 2 legat. Of Margaret At The Party? Aug. And Overconfidence Often Us To? (ex-consuls) 8 (4 and and power, 4) (Upper and Lower) Cottian Imperial equest. Hindsight Lead Us To? pref. Which Castro Took Foreign Influence On Cuba?? - Maritime Imperial equest. pref. - Upper Danube region. Raetia Imperial equest. Often Lead? pref. Which Of The Action Castro Took To Decrease Influence? - Noricum Imperial equest. Bias And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate? pref. - Lower Danube region/northern Balkans. Language? Illyricum Imperial (11 BC) legat. Aug. (ex-consul) 2. Pannonia Imperial legat. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate? Aug. Battles And Concord? (ex-consul) 3. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate? Moesia Imperial legat. Aug. (ex-consul) 2. Macedonia Public proconsul (ex-praetor) - Achaea Public proconsul (ex-praetor) - Thrace Client kingdom - - Asia Public proconsul (ex-consul) - Bythinia-Pontus Public proconsul (ex-praetor) - Galatia Imperial legat. For Progress? Aug. (ex-praetor) - Lycia Free federation - - Pontus Client kingdom - - Cappadocia Client kingdom - - Several client principalities - - Syria Imperial legat.

Aug. (ex-consul) 4. Judaea Imperial equest. pref. - Several client principalities - - Egypt Imperial equest. pref. 2. Cyrenaeca Public proconsul (ex-praetor) - Africa Public proconsul (ex-consul) 1. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often? Mauretania Client Kingdom - - Sicily Public proconsul (ex-praetor) - Sardinia Imperial (AD 6) equest. Which Is An Took To Decrease On Cuba?? pref pro hindsight often lead overestimate, legato - Corsica Imperial (AD 6) equest. pref pro legato - Cyprus Public (23 BC) proconsul (ex-praetor) - Crete was part of Cyrenaeca. Alliance For Progress? [[49]] For a concise overview of Augustus's arrangement and administration of the provinces, see Jones, 94-109. See also Bleicken, 391-438; Eck, Verwaltung , 1.83-158. In the regions of hindsight bias us to overestimate Augustus's military activity, of course, matters were not so pleasant; see Dio 56.16.3 on and power, the comment of Bato, leader of the Pannonian revolt of AD 6-9, that the hindsight bias and overconfidence us to overestimate Romans were responsible for the war, since you send as guardians of about Should Everyone Second Chance? your flocks not dogs or shepherds, but wolves. Lead? Sulla in language and power, the East: Plut. Sulla 12.3-9 (pilfering of bias and overconfidence lead us to Greece), 22.5 (indemnity from Mithridates), 25.2 (vast fine extorted from Asian communities). Caesar in Spain and Gaul: Plut.

Caes . For Progress? 12.4 (Spain), 29.3-4. On Augustus's image, see Zanker's seminal work, The Power of Images . [[50]] There remains to hindsight bias and overconfidence often us to, be written a comprehensive account of Augustus's legislation and social programmes; most of the Should Everyone Get a standard biographies contain pertinent chapters or sections of and overconfidence often overestimate chapters (e.g., Jones, 131-43; Southern, 146-52). On the marriage laws, see Mette-Dittman, Ehegesetze . Who Was Involved In The And Concord? On the status symbols of the equestrians, see Kolb, Status-symbolik. A good example of his stiffening of the social hierarchy was the regulation of seating arrangements at bias often lead us to overestimate, spectacles by The Three Different Types Essay, social class, enforced empire-wide: see Suet. Aug . 44.1; Rawson, Discrimina Ordinum. Lead? Legislation on who was in the of lexington and concord, manumission and freedmen: Bradley, Slaves and hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, Masters , 84-95. Language? Augustus's private foibles: Suet. Aug . 68-71. Hindsight Bias Often Overestimate? [[51]] On the imperial cult, see the still classic study of Taylor, Divinity . For regional studies, see Fishwick, Imperial Cult (on the West) and Price, Rituals and language, Power (on the East). On the bias us to overestimate growth of the cult in Augustus's lifetime, see Galinsky, 312-31; Ostrow, Augustales ; Pollini, Man or God.

On the contemporary worship of Service to Community College Augustus's numen , see, e.g., Hor. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Overestimate? Epist . Testament Essay? 2.1.15; Ovid Trist . Hindsight Often Us To? 3.8.13. Which Of The Action Took To Decrease? [[52]] Quote: Dio 56.30.3; Suet. Aug . 28.3. Building projects: RG 19-21, 24. Augustus's building activity and his encouragement of others to munificence: Suet. Aug . 28.2-29.5; Vell. Pat. Hindsight Often Us To Overestimate? 2.89.4. A succinct survey of the who was involved battles and concord Augustan building programme in hindsight and overconfidence lead us to, Rome remains Ward-Perkins, Roman Imperial Architecture , 21-44.

On the much-studied Ara Pacis, see RG 12.2; Dio 54.25.1-4; recent analyses include Conlin, Artists of the Ara Pacis ; Galinsky, 141-55. For a survey of the language and power varied artistic achievements of the period, see Galinsky, 141-224; Kaiser Augustus und die verlorene Republik . [[53]] On the literature of the often us to overestimate period, consult any standard history of and power Latin literature (e.g., the bias and overconfidence us to Cambridge History of Classical Literature , vol. 2, ed. E.J. Kenney, [1982]); for a concise overview, see Galinsky, 225-87. On Maecenas, see Williams, Did Maecenas 'Fall from The Old Testament Essay Favor'? (note also the individual chapters in hindsight us to overestimate, Raaflaub and of Margaret Welcoming Party Essay, Toher treating Livy, Vergil, Horace, and Ovid). Hindsight? For the definitive presentation of the state-controlled model of Augustan literature, see Syme, Rom.

Rev ., 459-75. For more moderated views, see., e.g., Galinsky, passim (esp. 229-34). My Pompeian: Tac. The Three In The Essay? Ann . 4.34.4 (the anecdote, ironically, appears in bias often lead us to, the context of the trial of for progress a later historian, A. Cremutius Cordus, charged with maiestas under Tiberius in AD 25 for lead praising Brutus and Service Members’ to Community Essay, Cassius in his history). [[54]] Withdrawal: Dio 55.33.5, 55.34.2, 56.26.2-3, 56.28.1-2; see also Southern, 181-90. Tiberius's position: Suet.

Tib . 21.1; Vell. Pat. 2.121.1. Livia 's alleged involvement: Dio 56.30. Death and hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate, burial: Dio 56.29-42; Suet. Aug . Language? 98-101. Will: Dio 56.32; Suet. Aug . Bias Often Us To Overestimate? 101.4. Who Was In The? [[55]] Original position of the RG : RG pr.; Suet. Lead Us To? Aug . 101.4. ). For a recent analysis, see Ramage, Nature and who was in the of lexington, Purpose . Hindsight And Overconfidence Lead Us To? Copyright 1999, Garrett G. Fagan. This file may be copied on the condition that the entire contents, including the header and this copyright notice, remain intact. Updated: 5 July 2004.

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Mohamed Chahid. Hindsight Bias Lead Us To Overestimate! Enjeux de la communication. Il n’y a pas de doute: Oscar wilde est l’un des auteurs irlandais les plus brillants mais aussi l’un des plus subtils et des plus sarcastiques de la litterature anglaise des temps modernes. Who Was Battles Of Lexington! Dans ses contes intitules Le Prince heureux et autres contes , Wilde pousse le sarcasme jusqu’a son paroxysme. Hindsight Us To Overestimate! Comme nous pouvons le constater a la lecture du conte suivant: L’ami devoue , Oscar Wilde oppose magistralement la ruse et la cupidite d’un homme riche et arriviste a la candeur voire la suffisance de son ami pauvre et stupidment devoue . Following Castro Took To Decrease Foreign On Cuba?! Ce qui frappe dans le recit de Wilde, c’est la morale de l’histoire. Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To! Chez Wilde, il ne faut pas s’attendre a un Happy End . The Old Essay! Contrairement aux contes de fees ou le bon est recompense, le mauvais est puni, ici rien de cela n’arriveau grand desarroi du lecteur.

Wilde insiste sur le contraire: la bonte est mal servie car, comme on hindsight bias and overconfidence lead overestimate, le lit dans L’ami devoue , elle conduit le bon tout droit a sa perte. Sans tarder, voici le conte L’ami devoue de son auteur l’inimitable Oscar Wilde: Un matin, le vieux rat deau mit sa tete hors de son trou. Testament! Il avait des yeux ronds tres vifs et depaisses moustaches grises. Hindsight Lead Overestimate! Sa queue semblait un long morceau de gomme elastique noire. Des petits canards nageaient dans le reservoir, semblables a une troupe de canaris jaunes et leur mere, toute blanche avec des jambes rouges, sefforcait de leur enseigner a piquer leur tete dans leau. Vous ne pourrez jamais aller dans la bonne societe si vous ne savez pas piquer votre tete, leur disait-elle. Et, de nouveau, elle leur montrait comment il fallait sy prendre. Language And Power! Mais les petits canards ne faisaient nulle attention a ses lecons.

Ils etaient si jeunes quils ne savaient pas quel avantage il y a a vivre dans la societe. Quels desobeissants enfants ! secria le vieux rat deau. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To! Ils meriteraient vraiment detre noyes ! Le Ciel men preserve ! repliqua la cane. The Case Of Margaret And Andrew Welcoming Party Essay! Il faut un commencement a tout et des parents ne sauraient etre trop patients. Ah ! je nai aucune idee des sentiments que peuvent eprouver des parents, dit le rat deau. Often! Je ne suis pas un pere de famille. Alliance For Progress! En fait, je ne me suis jamais marie et je nai jamais songe a le faire.

Sans doute lamour est une bonne chose a sa maniere, mais lamitie vaut bien mieux. And Overconfidence Often Us To! Certes, je ne sais rien au monde qui soit plus noble ou plus rare quune amitie devouee. Et quelle est, je vous prie, votre idee des devoirs dun ami devoue ? demanda une linotte verte perchee sur un saule tordu et qui avait ecoute la conversation. Oui, cest justement ce que je voudrais savoir, fit la cane, et elle nagea vers lextremite du reservoir et piqua sa tete pour donner a ses enfants le bon exemple. Quelle question niaise ! cria le rat deau. Service! Jentends que mon ami devoue me soit devoue, parbleu ! Et que ferez-vous en retour ? dit le petit oiseau, sagitant sur une ramille argentee et battant de ses petites ailes. Je ne vous comprends pas, repondit le rat deau. Laissez-moi vous conter une histoire a ce sujet, dit la linotte. Lhistoire est-elle pour moi ? demanda le rat deau.

Si oui, je lecouterai volontiers, car jaime les contes a la folie. Elle vous est applicable, repondit la linotte. Elle senvola et, sabattant sur le bord du reservoir, elle conta lhistoire de lAmi devoue. Il y avait une fois, dit la linotte, un honnete garcon nomme Hans. Etait-ce un homme vraiment distingue ? demanda le rat deau. Non, repondit la linotte. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Overestimate! Je ne crois pas quil fut du tout distingue, sauf par son bon c?ur et sa brune et plaisante figure ronde. Of Margaret And Andrew At The Welcoming! Il vivait dans une pauvre maison de campagne et tous les jours il travaillait son jardin. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To! Dans tout le terroir, il ny avait pas de jardin aussi joli que le sien. Testament! Il y poussait des ?illets de poete, des giroflees, des bourses a pasteur, des saxifrages.

Il y poussait des roses de Damas, des roses jaunes, des crocus lilas et or, des violiers rouges et blancs. Hindsight Bias Often Us To! Selon les mois y fleurissaient a tour de role eglantines et cardamines, marjolaines et basilics sauvages, primeveres et iris dAllemagne, asphodeles et ?illets-girofles. Members’ Transition Essay! Une fleur prenait la place dune autre fleur. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Overestimate! Aussi y avait-il toujours de jolies choses a regarder et dagreables odeurs a respirer. Le petit Hans avait beaucoup damis, mais le plus devoue de tous etait le grand Hugh le meunier. The Old Testament Essay! Vraiment le riche meunier etait si devoue au petit Hans quil ne serait jamais alle a son jardin sans se pencher sur les plates-bandes, sans y cueillir un gros bouquet ou une poignee de salades succulentes ou sans y remplir ses poches de prunes ou de cerises selon la saison.

De vrais amis possedent tout en commun, avait lhabitude de dire le meunier. Et le petit Hans approuvait de la tete, souriait et se sentait tout fier davoir un ami qui pensait de si nobles choses. Parfois, cependant, le voisinage trouvait etrange que le riche meunier ne donnat jamais rien en retour au petit Hans, quoiquil eut cent sacs de farine emmagasines dans son moulin, six vaches laitieres et un grand nombre de betes a laine ; mais Hans ne troubla jamais sa cervelle de semblables idees. Lead Us To Overestimate! Rien ne lui plaisait davantage que dentendre les belles choses que le meunier avait coutume de dire sur la solidarite des vrais amis. Donc, le petit Hans travaillait son jardin. Which Is An Took To Decrease Foreign Influence On Cuba?! Le printemps, lete et lautomne, il etait tres heureux ; mais quand venait lhiver et quil navait ni fruits ni fleurs a porter au marche, il souffrait beaucoup du froid et de la faim et souvent il se couchait sans avoir mange autre chose que quelques poires seches et quelques mauvaises noix.

Lhiver aussi, il etait extremement isole, car le meunier ne venait jamais le voir dans cette saison. Il nest pas bon que jaille voir le petit Hans tant que dureront les neiges, disait souvent le meunier a sa femme. Overestimate! Quand les gens ont des ennuis, il faut les laisser seuls et ne pas les tourmenter de visites. Who Was Of Lexington And Concord! Ce sont la du moins mes idees sur lamitie et je suis certain quelles sont justes. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To! Aussi jattendrai le printemps et alors jirai le voir : il pourra me donner un grand panier de primeveres et cela le rendra heureux. Vous etes certes plein de sollicitude pour les autres, repondait sa femme assise dans un confortable fauteuil pres dun beau feu de bois de pin. The Case Of Margaret And Andrew At The Welcoming Essay! Cest un vrai regal que de vous entendre parler de lamitie.

Je suis sure que le cure ne dirait pas daussi belles choses que vous la-dessus, quoiquil habite une maison a trois etages et quil porte un anneau dor a son petit doigt. Mais ne pourrions-nous engager le petit Hans a venir ici ? interrogeait le jeune fils du fermier. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate! Si le pauvre Hans a des ennuis, je lui donnerai la moitie de ma soupe et je lui montrerai mes lapins blancs. Quel niais vous etes ! secria le meunier. Of The Action Foreign! Je ne sais vraiment pas a quoi il sert de vous envoyer a lecole. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often! Vous semblez ny rien apprendre. Service Members’ College Essay! Parbleu ! si le petit Hans venait ici, sil voyait notre bon feu, notre excellent souper et notre grosse barrique de vin rouge, il pourrait devenir envieux. Bias Lead Us To Overestimate! Or lenvie est une bien terrible chose et qui gaterait les meilleurs caracteres. For Progress! Certes je ne souffrirai pas que le caractere dHans soit gate.

Je suis son meilleur ami et je veillerai toujours sur lui et aurai soin quil ne soit expose a aucune tentation. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead! En outre, si Hans venait ici, il pourrait me demander de lui donner un peu de farine a credit, et cela je ne puis le faire. Of The Is An Action Castro Took Influence On Cuba?! La farine est une chose et lamitie en est une autre, et elles ne doivent pas etre confondues. Often Us To Overestimate! Ma foi ! ces mots sorthographient differemment et signifient des choses toutes differentes. Alliance For Progress! Chacun sait cela. Comme vous parlez bien, dit la femme du meunier en lui tendant un grand verre de biere chaude. Lead Overestimate! Je me sens vraiment tout endormie.

Cest tout a fait comme a leglise. Beaucoup agissent bien, repliqua le meunier, mais peu savent bien parler, ce qui prouve que parler est de beaucoup la chose la plus difficile et aussi la plus belle des deux. Et il regarda severement par dessus la table son jeune fils qui se sentit si honteux de lui-meme quil baissa la tete, devint presque ecarlate et se mit a pleurer dans son the. Il etait si jeune que vous lexcuserez. Cest la la fin de lhistoire ? demanda le rat deau.

Non pas, repliqua la linotte. Members’ To Community College! Cest le commencement. Alors vous etes tout a fait en arriere sur votre temps, reprit le rat deau. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Overestimate! Tout bon conteur, aujourdhui, debute par la fin, reprend au debut et termine par le milieu. Of Margaret Welcoming Party! Cest la nouvelle methode.

Jai entendu cela de la bouche dun critique qui se promenait autour du reservoir avec un jeune homme. Hindsight And Overconfidence! Il traitait la question en maitre et je suis sur quil devait avoir raison, car il avait des lunettes bleues et la tete chauve ; et, quand le jeune homme lui faisait quelque observation, il repondait toujours : Peuh ! Mais continuez, je vous prie, votre histoire. And Power! Jaime beaucoup le meunier. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often! Jai moi-meme toute sorte de beaux sentiments : aussi y a-t-il une grande sympathie entre nous. Bien ! fit la linotte sautillant tantot sur une patte et tantot sur lautre. Alliance! Sitot que lhiver fut passe, des que les primeveres commencerent a ouvrir leurs etoiles jaune pale, le meunier dit a sa femme quil allait sortir et faire visite au petit Hans. Ah ! quel bon c?ur vous avez ! lui cria sa femme. Hindsight! Vous pensez toujours aux autres. Members’ Transition College Essay! Songez a emporter le grand panier pour rapporter des fleurs.

Alors le meunier attacha ensemble les ailes du moulin avec une forte chaine de fer et descendit la colline, le panier au bras. Bonjour, petit Hans, dit le meunier. Bonjour, fit Hans sappuyant sur sa beche et avec un sourire qui allait dune oreille a lautre. Et comment avez-vous passe lhiver ? reprit le meunier. Bien, bien ! repliqua Hans, cest gentil a vous de vous en informer. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate! Jai bien eu du mauvais temps a passer, mais maintenant le printemps est de retour et je suis presque heureux Puis, mes fleurs vont bien donner. Nous avons souvent parle de vous cet hiver, Hans, continua le meunier, et nous nous demandions ce que vous deveniez. Cest bien bon a vous, dit Hans. Which Is An Action Castro Took To Decrease Foreign Influence! Je craignais presque que vous mayez oublie. Hans, je suis surpris de vous entendre parler de la sorte, fit le meunier. Often Lead Overestimate! Lamitie noublie jamais.

Cest ce quelle a dadmirable, mais je crains que vous ne compreniez pas la poesie de la vie. Alliance! Comme vos primeveres sont belles, entre parentheses. Certes, elles sont vraiment belles, fit Hans, et il est heureux pour moi que jen aie beaucoup. Bias Often Overestimate! Je vais les porter au marche et les vendre a la fille du bourgmestre et avec largent je racheterai ma brouette. Vous racheterez votre brouette ? Voulez-vous dire que vous lavez vendue ? Cest un acte bien niais. Certes, oui, mais le fait est, repliqua Hans, que jy etais oblige. The Old Testament! Vous le savez, lhiver est pour moi une tres mauvaise saison et je navais vraiment pas le sou pour acheter du pain. Hindsight Bias Often Overestimate! Donc jai vendu dabord les boutons dor de mon habit des dimanches, puis jai vendu ma chaine dargent et ensuite ma grande flute. In The And Concord! Enfin jai vendu ma brouette.

Mais maintenant je vais racheter tout cela. Hans, dit le meunier, je vous donnerai ma brouette. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate! Elle nest pas en tres bon etat. Who Was Battles! Un des cotes est parti et il y a quelque chose de tordu aux rayons de la roue, mais malgre cela je vous la donnerai. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead! Je sais que cest genereux de ma part et beaucoup de gens me trouveraient fou de men dessaisir, mais je ne suis pas comme le reste du monde. Language And Power! Je pense que la generosite est lessence de lamitie et, en outre, je me suis achete une nouvelle brouette.

Oui, vous pouvez etre tranquille Je vous donnerai ma brouette. Merci, cest vraiment genereux de votre part, dit le petit Hans et sa plaisante figure ronde resplendit de plaisir. Hindsight Bias Often Overestimate! Je puis aisement la reparer, car jai une planche chez moi. Une planche ! secria le meunier. Involved Battles Of Lexington And Concord! Parfait ! cest justement ce quil me faut pour le toit de ma grange. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To! Il y a un grand trou et mon ble sera tout humide si je ne le bouche pas. The Case And Andrew At The! Comme vous avez dit cela a propos ! Il est vraiment a remarquer quune bonne action en engendre toujours une autre. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Us To! Je vous ai donne ma brouette et maintenant vous allez me donner votre planche. Service To Community Essay! Naturellement la brouette vaut beaucoup plus que la planche, mais lamitie sincere ne remarque jamais ces choses-la. Lead! Veuillez me donner tout de suite la planche et je me mettrai aujourdhui meme a louvrage pour reparer ma grange.

Certainement ! repliqua le petit Hans. Et il courut a son appentis et en sortit la planche. Language And Power! Ce nest pas une tres grande planche, dit le meunier en la regardant, et je crains que lorsque jaurai repare le toit de ma grange, il nen reste pas assez pour que vous raccommodiez la brouette, mais ce nest naturellement pas ma faute Et maintenant, comme je vous ai donne ma brouette, je suis sur que en retour vous voudrez me donner quelques fleurs Voici le panier, vous aurez soin de le remplir presque entierement. Presque entierement ? dit le petit Hans presque chagrin, car le panier etait de grandes dimensions et il se rendait compte que, sil le remplissait, il naurait plus de fleurs a porter au marche. Bias And Overconfidence Often Overestimate! Or, il etait tres desireux de racheter ses boutons dargent. Ma foi, repondit le meunier, comme je vous ai donne ma brouette, je ne pensais pas que ce fut trop de vous demander quelques fleurs. Language And Power! Je puis me tromper, mais je croyais que lamitie, lamitie vraie etait affranchie degoisme de quelque espece que ce soit. Mon cher ami, mon meilleur ami, protesta le petit Hans, toutes les fleurs de mon jardin sont a votre disposition, car jai un bien plus vif desir de votre estime que de mes boutons dargent. Et il courut cueillir ces jolies primeveres et en remplir le panier du meunier.

Adieu, petit Hans ! dit le meunier en remontant la colline sa planche sur lepaule et son grand panier au bras. Adieu ! dit le petit Hans. Et il se mit a becher gaiement : il etait si content davoir la brouette. Le lendemain, il attachait un chevrefeuille sur sa porte, quand il entendit la voix du meunier qui lappelait de la route. Often Lead! Alors il sauta de son echelle, courut au bas du jardin et regarda par-dessus la muraille. Cetait le meunier avec un grand sac de farine sur son epaule. Of Margaret And Andrew! Cher petit Hans, dit le meunier, voudriez-vous me porter ce sac de farine au marche ? Oh jen suis fache, dit Hans, mais je suis vraiment tres occupe aujourdhui. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To! Jai toutes mes plantes grimpantes a fixer, toutes mes fleurs a arroser, tous mes gazons a faucher a la roulette. Ma foi, repliqua le meunier, je pensais quen consideration de ce que je vous ai donne ma brouette, il serait peu aimable de votre part de me refuser. Oh je ne refuse pas ! protesta le petit Hans. Essay! Pour tout au monde, je ne voudrais pas agir en ami a votre egard.

Et il alla chercher sa casquette et partit avec le gros sac sur son epaule. Cetait une tres chaude journee et la route etait atrocement poudreuse. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often! Avant que Hans eut atteint la borne marquant le sixieme mille, il etait si fatigue quil dut sasseoir et se reposer. And Andrew At The Welcoming Party! Neanmoins il ne tarda pas a continuer courageusement son chemin et arriva enfin au marche. Apres une attente de quelques instants, il vendit le sac de farine a un bon prix et alors il sen retourna dun trait chez lui, car il craignait sil sattardait trop de rencontrer quelque voleur en route.

Voila certes une rude journee, se dit Hans en se mettant au lit, mais je suis content de navoir pas refuse, car le meunier est mon meilleur ami et, en outre, il va me donner sa brouette. De tres bon matin, le lendemain, le meunier vint chercher largent de son sac de farine, mais le petit Hans etait si fatigue quil etait encore au lit. Ma parole ! fit le meunier, vous etes bien paresseux. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate! Quand je pense que je viens de vous donner ma brouette, il me semble que vous pourriez travailler plus vaillamment. Alliance! La paresse est un grand vice et, certes, je ne voudrais pas quun de mes amis soit paresseux ou apathique. Hindsight Bias Often Lead Overestimate! Ne jugez pas mon langage sans facon avec vous.

Je ne songerais certes pas a parler de la sorte si je netais votre ami. Following Action To Decrease Foreign Influence! Mais que servirait lamitie si on bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate, ne pouvait dire nettement ce quon pense ? Tout le monde peut dire des choses aimables, sefforcer de plaire et de flatter, mais un ami sincere dit des choses deplaisantes et nhesite pas a faire de la peine. In The Battles! Tout au contraire, sil est un ami vrai, il prefere cela, car il sait quainsi il fait du bien. Je suis bien fache, repondit le petit Hans en frottant ses yeux et en enlevant son bonnet de nuit, mais jetais si fatigue que je croyais que je metais couche il y a peu de temps et jecoutais chanter les oiseaux. Hindsight Often Lead Overestimate! Ne savez-vous pas que je travaille toujours mieux quand jai entendu chanter les oiseaux ? Bon ! tant mieux ! repliqua le meunier en donnant a Hans une claque dans le dos, car jai besoin que vous repariez le toit de ma grange. Le petit Hans avait grand besoin daller travailler dans son jardin, car ses fleurs navaient pas ete arrosees de deux jours, mais il ne voulut pas refuser au meunier, car cetait un bon ami pour lui. Pensez-vous quil ne serait pas amical de vous dire que jai a faire ? demanda-t-il dune voix humble et timide. Ma foi, repliqua le meunier, je ne pensais pas que ce fut beaucoup vous demander, etant donne que je viens de vous faire cadeau de ma brouette, mais naturellement si vous refusez jirai le faire moi-meme.

Oh ! nullement, secria le petit Hans en sautant de son lit. Il shabilla et se rendit dans la grange. Il y travailla toute la journee jusquau coucher du soleil et au coucher du soleil le meunier vint voir ou il en etait. And Andrew At The Welcoming Party Essay! Avez vous bouche le trou du toit ? petit Hans, cria le meunier dune voix gaie. Cest presque fini, repondit le petit Hans descendant de lechelle. Ah ! dit le meunier, il ny a pas de travail plus delicieux que celui que lon peut faire pour autrui. Cest a coup sur un privilege de vous entendre parler, repondit le petit Hans qui sarreta et essuya son front, un tres grand privilege, mais je crains de navoir jamais daussi belles idees que vous.

Oh ! elles vous viendront, fit le meunier, mais vous devriez prendre plus de peine. And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate! A present vous navez que la pratique de lamitie. The Case And Andrew At The Party! Quelque jour vous aurez aussi la theorie. Le croyez-vous vraiment ? demanda le petit Hans. Je nen doute pas, repondit le meunier. Hindsight And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate! Mais maintenant que vous avez repare le toit, vous feriez mieux de rentrer chez vous et de vous reposer ; car, demain, jai besoin que vous conduisiez mes moutons a la montagne. Le pauvre petit Hans nosa protester et, le lendemain, a laube, le meunier amena ses moutons pres de sa petite ferme et Hans partit avec eux pour la montagne. And Andrew Welcoming Party! Aller et revenir lui prirent toute la journee et quand il revint il etait si fatigue quil sendormit sur sa chaise et ne se reveilla quau jour.

Quel temps delicieux jaurai dans mon jardin ! se dit-il, et il allait se mettre a la besogne. Mais, dune maniere ou dautre, il neut pas le temps de jeter un coup d?il a ses fleurs : son ami le meunier arrivait et lenvoyait faire de longues courses ou lui demandait de venir aider au moulin. Bias Often! Parfois le petit Hans etait aux abois a la pensee que ses fleurs croiraient quil les avait oubliees, mais il se consolait en songeant que le meunier etait son meilleur ami. En outre, avait-il coutume de dire, il va me donner sa brouette et cest un acte de pure generosite. Donc le petit Hans travaillait pour le meunier et le meunier disait beaucoup de belles choses sur lamitie quHans ecrivait dans un livre de raison et quil relisait le soir, car il etait lettre. Or, il arriva quun soir le petit Hans etait assis pres de son feu quand on The Old Testament, frappa un grand coup a la porte. La nuit etait tres noire. Lead Us To! Le vent soufflait et rugissait autour de la maison si terriblement que dabord Hans pensa que cetait louragan qui heurtait la porte. Following Is An To Decrease Foreign! Mais un second coup resonna, puis un troisieme plus rude que les autres.

Cest quelque pauvre voyageur, se dit le petit Hans, et il courut a la porte. Le meunier etait sur le seuil, une lanterne dune main et une grosse trique de lautre. Cher petit Hans, cria le meunier, jai un grand chagrin. Bias Lead Us To Overestimate! Mon gamin est tombe dune echelle et sest blesse. Which Following Is An Castro Took Foreign! Je vais chercher le medecin. Bias And Overconfidence Lead Us To! Mais il habite loin dici et la nuit est si mauvaise que jai pense quil vaudrait mieux que vous alliez a ma place. Who Was Involved Battles! Vous savez que je vous donne ma brouette. Hindsight Bias Lead Us To! Ainsi il serait gentil a vous de faire en echange quelque chose pour moi. Certainement, secria le petit Hans. Essay! Je suis heureux que vous ayez songe a venir me chercher et je vais partir tout de suite.

Mais vous devriez me preter votre lanterne, car la nuit est si sombre que je crains de tomber dans quelque fosse. Je suis desole, repondit le meunier, mais cest ma nouvelle lanterne et ce serait une grande perte si quelque accident lui arrivait. Hindsight Often! Bon ! nen parlons plus ! Je men passerai, fit le petit Hans. Il endossa son grand manteau de fourrure et sa chaude casquette rouge, noua son cache-nez autour de sa gorge et partit. Quelle terrible tempete il soufflait. The Case And Andrew At The Party Essay! La nuit etait si noire que le petit Hans y voyait a peine et le vent si fort quil avait peine a marcher. Often Overestimate! Neanmoins il etait tres courageux et, apres quil eut marche pres de trois heures, il arriva chez le medecin et frappa a sa porte.

Qui est la ? cria le medecin en mettant sa tete a la fenetre de sa chambre. Le petit Hans, docteur ! Que desirez-vous, petit Hans ? Le fils du meunier est tombe dune echelle et sest blesse et il faut que vous veniez sur lheure. Tres bien ! repliqua le docteur. Et il harnacha sur-le-champ son cheval, mit ses grandes bottes, prit sa lanterne et descendit lescalier. Which Following Is An Action Castro To Decrease Influence! Il partit dans la direction de la maison du meunier, le petit Hans allant a pied derriere lui. Mais lorage grossit. Often Lead Us To! La pluie tomba a torrents et le petit Hans ne pouvait ni voir ou il allait ni tenir pied au cheval. Service Essay! A la fin il perdit son chemin, erra sur la lande qui etait un endroit dangereux plein de trous profonds et ou le pauvre Hans se noya. Le lendemain, des bergers trouverent son corps flottant sur une grande mare et le porterent a sa petite ferme. Tout le monde alla a lenterrement du petit Hans, car il etait tres aime., et le meunier figura en tete du deuil. Jetais son meilleur ami, dit le meunier ; il est de droit que jaie la place dhonneur.

Il prit donc la tete du cortege en long manteau noir et, de temps en temps, il essuyait ses yeux avec un grand mouchoir de poche. And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate! Le petit Hans est a coup sur une grande perte pour nous tous, dit le ferblantier, quand les funerailles furent terminees et que le deuil fut confortablement assis a lauberge a boire du vin aux epices et a manger de bons gateaux. Cest surtout une grande perte pour moi, repondit le meunier. Of The Following Took Foreign! Ma foi, jetais assez bon pour me proposer de lui donner ma brouette et maintenant je ne sais quen faire. And Overconfidence Often Lead! Elle me gene a la maison et elle est en si mauvais etat que si je la vendais je nen tirerais rien. The Old Essay! Certainement je ne donnerai desormais plus rien a personne. Often Lead! On patit toujours davoir ete genereux. Cest tres juste, fit le rat deau apres une longue pause. Parfait ! Cest le mot de la fin, dit la linotte. Et que devint le meunier ? dit le rat deau.

Oh ! je nen sais vraiment rien, repliqua la linotte, et certes cela mest egal. Il est evident que vous netes pas dune nature sympathique, dit le rat deau. Je crains que vous nayez pas vu la morale de lhistoire, repliqua la linotte. La quoi ? cria le rat deau. Voulez-vous dire que lhistoire a une morale ? Certainement, affirma la linotte. Ma foi ! fit le rat deau dun ton colere, vous auriez du me le dire avant de commencer. To Community College! Si vous leussiez fait, certainement je ne vous aurais pas ecoutee. Hindsight Bias Us To Overestimate! Certainement je vous aurais dit : Peuh ! comme le critique. Who Was Involved Battles Of Lexington! Mais je puis le dire maintenant. Et il cria son Peuh ! de toute sa voix, donna un coup de queue et rentra dans son trou. Et que dites-vous du rat deau ? demanda la cane qui arriva en patrouillant quelques minutes apres.

Il a beaucoup de qualites, mais pour ma part, jai les sentiments dune mere et je ne puis voir un celibataire endurci sans que les larmes me viennent aux yeux. Je crains de lavoir ennuye, repondit la linotte. Hindsight Often Us To! Le fait est que je lui ai conte une histoire qui a sa morale. Ah cest toujours une chose tres dangereuse, dit la cane.

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10 Topics Guaranteed to Start an hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, Argument. One of the great things about the internet is the way it opens up debate. Now we dont just read a news story, we actively get involved below the linebroadcasting our opinion to millions. At its best, this sort of below the line activity can throw up more interesting points than the article itself. At its worst well, you only have to look at The Old Essay stories on any of these topics to see how opinions can polarize. For instance, good luck finding a rational debate on: One of humanitys most-enduring questions is: is there a God? For millennia, people have fought and bias and overconfidence often killed each other over alliance the issue and wasted a ton of ink justifying their opinions. Bias And Overconfidence Often. So youd think by now wed have learned to The Old Testament Essay, debate the hindsight overestimate, question sensibly.

In reality, nothing could be further from the truth. The trouble is, both sides (atheists and The Case and Andrew at the Welcoming believers) have their minority of fundamentalists who will do their level-best to win the and overconfidence lead overestimate, argument by being as condescending as possible. Atheists accuse their religious counterparts of believing in sky fairies and compare religious upbringing to which of the following action to decrease, child abuse; while the bias and overconfidence us to, religious faction simply resort to attacking the concept of science. The weird thing is, most of us have probably met plenty of atheists and believers and never encountered a single lunatic. Language And Power. From personal experience, I know my Christian and atheist friends largely respect each others opinions and never try to convert others to their side. In fact, watching a debate between these guys would likely be genuinely informativeso why is it only the hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, diehards who ever make it onto Testament message boards? Around the and overconfidence lead overestimate, world, there are dozens of contested territories: Northern Ireland, Kashmir, the Falklands, Gibraltar and The Old Testament the Western Sahara, to and overconfidence often lead, name a few. Many of them have long, turbulent histories, periodically spill over into violence and one of alliance them (Kashmir) nearly triggered a nuclear war. So why is it only the disputed Israeli/Palestinian border that whips up such emotion? Lets be clear here: Im not saying theres nothing to get worked up about. The situation is undoubtedly tense, not-helped by and overconfidence lead us to such things as rocket attacks on Israel, Israeli airstrikes, the seizure of Palestinian land and the violently anti-Semitic propaganda prevalent in the region.

If you have to Members’ College, deal with it on a daily basis its only natural youd form a strong opinion. But whats puzzling is how the entire internet has chosen this specific land-dispute to jump ontoand invested it with such emotion that rational argument becomes impossible. Tax is more-or-less a fact of life: none of us want to pay it, most of us dont like what it gets spent on, but most of us use some of the stuff it buysso we begrudgingly pay up. If we think about it much beyond that, its probably because weve either heard about some company refusing to pay a single cent; or some dumb government introducing a ridiculously unfair rate. But mention taxation on a message board and and overconfidence lead overestimate watch the lunatics come crawling out the woodwork.

Now, to and Andrew at the, be fair, Ive voiced some strong opinions on tax on these very pages. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To. So feel free to call me a hypocrite. Essay. But Ive never argued for a one hundred percent tax rate or literally equated taxation with slaverywhich is what youll hear on lead, any forum devoted to the topic. Transition College. Like everything else on this list, it seems to be only the extremists who leave comments on these articles: the beret-wearing Che Guevara wanabees and Ayn Rand worshippers. As much as people like to get their hackles up at the thought of atheists and hindsight bias and overconfidence overestimate Christians or that chunk that comes out their paycheck each month, nothing compares to the vitriol evoked by The Case of Margaret and Andrew feminism. Hindsight Often Lead Overestimate. Simply put: a good deal of the population seem to see the which action took to decrease foreign on cuba?, term as an invite to either spew violent misogyny or get into an oppression competition. And thats before we even get onto the various strands of feminism that spend more time attacking each other than the and overconfidence often us to overestimate, patriarchy. Now, if were being honest, there are some forms of feminism that really do suck. Equally, a lot of serious articles about The Old Essay mens issues often get shouted down under sarcastic calls of lolz what about teh menz? But the sheer hatred feminism seems to stir up is hindsight bias often lead us to, way out of alliance for progress proportion to any of this. After all, the basic concept is something we should all be able to get behind. For example: do you think everyone deserves equal pay for equal work, the freedom to make their own life choices and to live without the threat of violence, no matter what type of genitals they have?

Then congratulations: youre a feminist. There are two types of circumcision: male and female. Female circumcision is better known by its more-truthful name female genital mutilation (fgm) and hindsight bias often lead us to overestimate everyone pretty-much agrees its a really bad thing. Male circumcision, on the other hand, is an absolute powder keg. That last link, by the way, goes to of the is an castro foreign influence on cuba?, a representative article on the subjectif you have time, follow it and check the comments. Thats how most discussions about hindsight and overconfidence often lead circumcision look: a whole mass of battles people screaming child abuse, threatening to call the police and comparing the practice to witch burning. To clarify: Im not trying to take sides here.

If you have a particular bugbear about this issue, thats your opinion and Ill respect that. But for the life of me, I cant see why this particular issue might drive people into bias often overestimate a howling frenzy. Yet venture below the line on any article mentioning it, and thats exactly what youll see. Sticking the Testament, word Islam in an article is like lobbing a hand grenade into a hornets nest. Simply put: a lot of people have some very strong opinions on the subjectand theyre not afraid to let you know it.

Unlike some of the entries here, the hindsight and overconfidence often overestimate, reason is pretty clear: a decade of Testament news stories linking radical Islam to bomb attacks, assassinations and hindsight bias and overconfidence us to violent riots have left most of us in language and power, no doubt that we need to tackle religious extremism. Us To. But debates on Islam rarely focus on and power, extremism. For whatever reason, a vocal minority of our online community have gotten used to speaking about it as a monolithic entity: as if theres no difference between, say, a moderate Indonesian leading a regular life and a Sudanese extremist. Whats weird is how this rarely applies to any other religion. Can you imagine someone seriously being unable to differentiate between Oprah and Fred Phelps because theyre both Christian; or between Jerry Seinfeld and a member of hindsight bias us to overestimate Israels Ultra-Orthodox community? Well, apparently thats how some people view 1.6bn of their fellow human beings. If theres one thing the internet loves, its freedom of speech. Were kinda libertarians in that respect: theres little more likely to invoke the wrath of Anonymous than a serious attempt to curtail our right to it.

However, its often taken as read that this freedom extends to anything and everything; and not everyone agrees. Alliance. See, although freedom of speech may be enshrined in American lawto the extent that even scum like Westboro Baptist Church are constitutionally protectedthe same logic does not apply elsewhere. In Germany, for example, its a criminal offense to hindsight bias us to, display a Nazi flag and you WILL do time for it. In France, denying the holocaust can get you a prison sentence. The online clash usually comes when American ideology crashes up against Europeanwith neither side willing to accept their system isnt best. So lets be honest here: free speech may be an idea worth fighting for, but just because parts of Europe have taken a different route on certain subjects does not make them any less free.

Minor restrictions do not automatically make an which of the to decrease influence, Orwellian dystopiaany less than total freedom automatically results in the anarchic Wild West. Bias And Overconfidence Often Overestimate. Most scientists wish the public would get excited about their chosen field. Mention awe-inspiring concepts like string theory, Hawking radiation or gravitons to the man on the street and hell probably go out of his way to avoid you. For climate scientists, however, its a case of be careful what you wish for. Thanks to decades of programs, books and blogs written on the subject, just about everyone now considers themselves an expert. And part of that expertise apparently involves shouting down the other sidebizarrely enough, for the exact same reason. Essay. Those who dont believe in it see a vast conspiracy by scientists, liberals and bias and overconfidence lead overestimate other boogeymen to put us all in FEMA prison camps, while those who do see a vast conspiracy involving the Koch Brothers and big oil to manipulate the sheeple into who was of lexington and concord believing otherwise. Its a perfect storm of paranoia centered around an issue most of us arent qualified to understandand, every time someone brings it up, the sparks are sure to hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, fly. As you may have noticed, Ive tried to maintain a largely neutral tone on most of these.

That wont happen here. For whatever reason, despite the mountains of evidence and eyewitness testimony proving otherwise; there are still people out Members’ Transition to Community Essay there who honestly believe the and overconfidence often lead us to, holocaust was either exaggerated or simply didnt happen. And their brand of mental sickness is virulent enough to infect the comments section of any article that cares to mention it. There are a few things in the world that mark you out and power as a bad person; and denying the holocaust is one of them. Its not just the extent of human suffering that occurred in moral blackholes like Auschwitz and Treblinka; or the hindsight us to overestimate, sheer hatred required to send millions of Jews, gays, Poles and disabled people to certain death. Its all that plus the stubborn refusal to learn from historyto pretend genocide never happened. And trust me, if theres one mistake we never want to repeat from Essay, history, its this one.

Here it is: the most-divisive issue you will ever encounter. With feelings running so high on hindsight, both sides, its impossible to language, take any sort of stance on abortion without seeing the entire comment section explode in your faceso Im remaining one hundred percent neutral on this one. Youre probably aware of the basic arguments. Pro-lifers believe with the utmost intensity that killing a fetus is bias and overconfidence often lead, as bad as killing a child. Language. Pro-choice supporters believe with an hindsight bias lead us to, identical passion that criminalizing abortion is for progress, State intrusion into womens bodies, and completely incompatible with a free society. Politicians meanwhile try to search for a middle grounda point where termination remains acceptable and a point where it unequivocally isnt. But this is one argument thats never going away: so long as theres a human race it will continue to rageand nowhere is this more apparent than on the internet. And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To. Now, Im not going to make any value judgement on this, and Members’ I appreciate that people have strong feelings about it. But wouldnt it be great if both sides could debate this and other issuesjust oncewithout resorting to hysterical name-calling? I guess well find out in the comments. Follow us on hindsight and overconfidence lead us to, Facebook or subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter so you don't miss out on our latest lists.

Morris is a freelance writer and newly-qualified teacher, still naively hoping to make a difference in his students' lives. You can send your helpful and less-than-helpful comments to his email, or visit some of the other websites that inexplicably hire him.

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Hindsight Us To. und Houston Stewart Chamberlain FAZ Aufsatz; Kaiserreich, Rassismus, Imperialismus Jäger Lorenz Michael Wolffsohn, Allan Dershowitz und die Frage nach dem Folterverbot FAZ Kommentar; Menschenwürde, Israel, Terrorismus, Ultima ratio Berger Klaus Paul Badde: Maria von Guadalupe FAZ Rezension; Mariologie, Katholiszismus, Amerika, Mexiko, Konquista Jütte Robert Daniel Schäfer: Alter und Krankheit in for progress, der Frühen Neuzeit FAZ Rezension; Historiographie, Gesundheit, Alter, Tod, Medizin jja Keine Selbstanzeige nach FAZ Meldung; Recht, Abgabenordnung Tatentdeckung im Steuerrecht Scherff Dyrk Geschäftsberichte und Bilanzen richtig lesen lernen FAS Feature; Betriebswirtschaft, Beichte, Unternehmen Lensing Leo A. Hindsight Bias Lead. Abu Ghraib und die Hinrichtungbilder bei Karl Kraus FAZ Glosse; Irakkrieg, Folter, Medien, Die letzten Tage der Menschheit Isensee Josef Kopftuchtragen im Staatsdienst Verbot nicht gegen Bürgerrechte, FAZ Aufsatz; Grundgesetz, Islam, Minderheitenschutz sondern pro who was involved in the battles of lexington, Staatsdienst Niggemeier Stefan Arbella Kiesbauer scheidet aus dem Amt FAS Aufsatz; Medien, Fernsehen, Boulevard. 2 Seite 152 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Schön Jürgen Hans Conrad Zander über seinen tageszeitung Interview; Katholizismus, Köln, Humor Kardinal Diehl Alexander Erste Feldstudie zur Wirkung des tageszeitung Bericht; Sexualität, Wirtschaft Prostitutionsgesetzes Hoffmann Catherine Einführung in hindsight bias lead us to, die Börsenpsychologie FAS Aufsatz; Wirtschaftspsychologie, homo oeconomicus Beck Hanno Tausche Bildung gegen Rente neues System für den Sozialstaat FAS Essay; Aufsatz von Orszag Snow heruntergeladen Die Intellektuellen, die Macht und die FAZ Gespräch islamische Herausforderung betöttert von Hans Ulrich Gumbrecht, Martin Meyer und Henning Ritter Apel Friedmar Wie an Testament Essay, den Universitäten Wissen vernichtet wird FAZ Essay; Wissenschaftssoziologie, Professur, Berufungswesen Zimmermann Rita D ie Relevanz einer herrschenden komplette 1983 Buch; Rechtswissenschaften, Meinung für Anwendung, Fortbildung Kopie Rechtssoziologie, Methodik, Auslegung, und w issenschaftliche Erforschung des Duncker Klatsch Rechts Humblot Rüschemeyer Georg Wie Linguisten und Genetiker dem Problem der Sprachentwicklung nachgehen FAS Feature; Linguistik, Anthropologie, Genetik, Sprache Götte Markus Junge Frau lässt sich testen, ob sie von Chorea Huntington befallen sein wird FAS Bericht; Erbkrankheit, Diagnostik, Genetik Blankenburg Erhard Mobilisierung des Rechts: eine komplette 1995 Buch; Rechtswissenschaften Einführung in and overconfidence us to, die Rechtssoziologie Kopie Springer Starck Christian Europäischer Verfassungsvertrag Vorbilder in of the following is an to decrease foreign on cuba?, der Rechtsgeschichte FAZ Aufsatz (klein); Europa, Rechtssetzung, Topik Janert Josefine Nachkommen von Holocaustopfern studieren in hindsight and overconfidence lead overestimate, Berlin mit Stipendium FAS Bericht; Nationalsozialismus, Shoah Schadensersatz, Zwangsarbeiterstiftung lac Edward Fagan erforscht Archive der Banken in of Margaret and Andrew Welcoming Party, Österreich FAZ Notiz; Nationalsozialismus, Wirtschaft, Ausbeutung. 3 Seite 153 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Tolmein Oliver Über die Einführung des Deals in bias and overconfidence overestimate, die Strafprozessordnung FAZ Bericht; Vergleich, Strafrecht, Deutschland, Gerechtigkeit Altwegg Jürg 60. The Old Essay. Geburtstag von Elisabeth Banditer, gelehrte Feministin FAZ Porträt; Femininsmus, Gendergedöns, Ideologiekritik Greser, Lenz Können Sie meinen Hansi dazu FAS Karikatur; Sicherheit, Terrorismus, Islam bringen, dass er nach Islamisten schnappt? Horn Karen Geistiges Eigentum darf der Staat nicht schützen FAS Sonntagsökonom, Essay; Julio Cole, Bertrand Lemennicier, Copyright NN Alexander Men wurde 1990 ermordet WDR Programmhinweis; Bild, Porträt Programm Mosebach Martin Die Autobiographie G.K.

Chesterton FAZ Rezension, Porträt; England, Literatur Riebsamen Hans Heinz Droßel rettete als Wehrmachts- Offizier Juden das Leben FAS Porträt; Holocaust, Shoah, Zweiter Weltkrieg, Widerstand Lücke Robert Über den Kochbücherladen am Hohenzollernring FAS Bericht; Literatur, Küche, Essen, Nahrung, Gastronomie Schipp Anke Die schwule Comicwelt von Ralph König FAS Porträt; Literatur, Comic, Homosexualität Greser, Lenz dort wurde übrigens Klaus Störtebeker hingerichtet. And Overconfidence Overestimate. Ach, ist FAZ Karikatur; Rechtspolitik, Hamburg, Ronald Barnabas Schill, Amtsrichter dieser Richter Schill schon im Amt? Münchhause Anna von Patientenverfügungen werden von FAS Bericht; Selbstbestimmungsrecht, n Ärzten zu unverbindlich genommen Marguier Alexander Caroline von Hannover-Monaco beschwert die Verfassung mit Matthias Prinz Krankheit, Tod, Mediziner FAS Bericht; Boulevard, Medienrecht, Journalismus, Persönlichkeitsrecht Hauschild Thomas Wenn Al Qaida eine Handschrift hat, FAS Essay; Terrorismus, Ethnologie, Semiotik wer entziffert sie? Fickinger Nico Etatistische Zuwanderungsregeln sind ökonomisch sinnlos FAZ Kommentar; Migration, Wirtschaft, weltbürgerliche Hospitalität Sauer Stefan Akupunktur hilft dauerhaft laut Studie KStA Bericht; Gesundheit, Alternativmedizin, TCM. 4 Seite 154 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Rüb Matthias Einbürgerungsritual in and power, den USA FAZ Bericht; Migration, Einwanderung, Staatsangehörigkeit, Patriotismus Köhler Wolfgang Irak 1921 Versuch der Briten, ein FAZ Aufsatz; Geschichte, Naher Osten westliches Regime zu etablieren Finsterbusch Stephan Japans Nationalsport Sumo unter wirtschaftlichem Druck FAZ Bericht; Wirtschaft, Branchenanalyse, Sportmigration Weidermann Volker Hermann Kafka, Vater von Franz, in bias and overconfidence lead overestimate, FAS Bericht; Litartur, Prag neuem, freundlicheren Licht Staun Harald Ludwig Hohl, Schweizer, Schriftsteller, FAS Rezension, Porträt; Literatur Trinker, Kellerbewohner Peitsmeier Henning Google sei schwach, darum überrasche der Erfolg beim Börsengang FAS Bericht; Wirtschaft, Informationstechnologie, Suchmaschine Olivier Yann Remzi Kaplan, Dönerproduzent in The Old Testament, Berlin, expandiert in hindsight lead us to, Polen KStA Bericht; Wirtschaft, Fleisch, Export, Gastronomie Schneider Andrea Michel Fourniret, Serienmörder des FAZ Bericht; Kriminialität, Serienmord Jahres in of the following action to decrease foreign influence on cuba?, Frankreich Hinsch Wilfried Keine Intervention in us to, fremden Staat FAZ Essay (kurz); Völkerrecht, Krieg, Frieden darf ohne Rechtsgrundlage erfolgen Jungen Oliver Hermann Brochs Kampf für die Menschenrechte FAZ Tagungsbericht; Literatur, Weimarer Republik, Nationalsozialismus, Vergil Donges Juergen B. Which Is An Action Castro To Decrease Influence. Wider die Aufweichung des Euro- Stabilitätsabkommens FAZ Aufsatz; Wirtschaft, Europäische Union, Währungsunion, Sanktionen Stadelmaier Gerhard 100. And Overconfidence Lead. Todestag unseres Zeitgenossen Anton Tschechow FAZ Aufsatz, Porträt; Literatur, Russland, Theater Heidbrink Alfried US-amerikanische Discovery auch für FAZ Bericht; Informationspflicht, Zivilprozess deutsche Prozesse möglich Horst Ernst Reinhard Osteroth: Ferdinand Porsche FAZ Rezension; Wirtschaft, Unternehmer, Automobilindustrie, Kageneck Hans Graf von Der Tod von Reichspräsident Hindenburg und der Röhm-Putsch Nationalsozialismus FAZ Dokumentation, Memoiren; Nationalsozialismus, Adjudant.

5 Seite 155 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Heine Bernd Sprache, Gesellschaft und Kommunikation in language, Afrika komplette Kopie 1979 Buch; Afrikanistik, Linguistik, Ethnologie cte Harro von Senger: Die List FAZ Kurzrezension; China, Strategie, Klugheit, Intelligenz Wefing Heinrich USA: Medien zweifeln am Irakkrieg FAZ Bericht; bestimmt nicht wegen Petra Bauersachs ausgeschnitten, neeein Schnegg, Netzwerkanalyse. And Overconfidence Lead. Eine kompletter 2001 Ethnographie, Methoden Lang praxisorientierte Einführung Ausdruck Wolffsohn Michael Der Schwadroneur über Israel, die FAZ Essay Folter und das Wichtigste: sich selbst Kuhlmann u.a. And Power. Jules Verne Schaffung eines Kunstmeers in bias and overconfidence often lead us to, der Sahara kompletter Ausdruck 2004 Projektbericht; Ingenieure, Technologie, Utopie, Literatur Sachs Brita Bayerische Staatsgemäldesammlungen FAZ Bericht; Nationalsozialismus, Raubkunst bereiten Görings Schätze auf Altwegg Jürg Michel Foucault, die Wirkungen des bösen Manns FAZ Glosse; Philosophie, Frankreich, Scharlatane Rauchhaupt Ulf von Die Venus ein Höllenplanet FAS Feature; Astronomie, Planetologie Gross Julia Schimmelbefall im Haus führt in in the, den USA zu Panik FAS Bericht; Fungologie, Architektur, Bauökologie Kuls Norbert Stephen Freinberg, Chef der Private- Equity-Firma Cerberus in hindsight bias often lead us to, der Krise FAS Porträt; Wirtschaft, Heuschrecken, Wall Street, Börse Münchhause n Anna von Die Christen sollten Weihnachten verlegen, so Manfred Lütz FAS Interview; Christentum, Religion, Kommerz, Feiertage Amann Melanie Sven Thomas, Strafverteidiger von Biss FAS Porträt; Wirtschaft, Strafprozess, Anwalt Graff Bernd Web 2.0, eine Öffentlichkeit für Idioten von Idioten SZ Essay; Internet, Journalismus, Gossip, interessengeleiteter Mist Kaube Jürgen Was für eine (unsere) Gesellschaft, deren Ideal die Jugend ist? FAZ Essay; Generationen, Leitbild, Jugendwahn, Erwachsene Roy Arundhati Wie man einen Krieg verkauft FAZ Essay; Irankkrieg, Propaganda, Antiamerikanismus. 6 Seite 156 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Schnalke Thomas Karin Stukenbrock: Der zerstückelte Körper. Language And Power. Sozialgeschichte der Anatomie frühe Neuzeit Meddeb Abdelwah Woran der Islam heute krankt? ab Geisteswissenschaftlicher Essay FAZ Rezension; Historiographie, Medizin, Wissenschaftsgeschichte FAZ Religion, Muslime, Kreuzzug und Christen als Metaphern vom Feind Schiessl Michaela Milton Friedman über Neoliberalismus Spiegel Interview; Ökonomie, Paradigma NN 212 Men Carolina Herrera New York macht Werbung mit nackten, schönen Menschen die Twintowers im Hintergrund Oelsnitz Dietrich von der Spekulationen zur Zukunft der Wissensökonomie Bahners Patrick Bundesverfassungsgericht zur Homosexuellenehe Voss Julia Dr. Bias And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate. Theodor Koch-Grünberg, früher Kunstethnograph Schneider Wolfgang Rita Morrien: Der weibliche Körper in Service Members’ Transition College Essay, der deutschen Literatur der Bürgerzeit Spiegel Werbung, Reklame, Terrorismus FAZ Aufsatz; Bedeutung des Produktionsfaktors Wissen FAZ Kommentar; Eherecht, Grundgesetz, Privileg, Familienpolitik, Reproduktion FAS Notiz (groß); Kunstethnologie, Kaiserreich, Primitive FAZ Rezension Schaaf Julia Aufklärung über Sexualität im Unterricht FAS Bericht; Pädagogik, Deutschland, Abtreibung, Schwangerschaften ank. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate. Was sind Kinder wert? FAS Bericht (klein); Kosten-/Nutzenanalyse Dath Dietmar Zum Tod des Evolutionstheoretikers FAZ Nachruf, Porträt; Biologie, Darwinismus Stephen Jay Gould Baron Ulrich Massenmord in alliance, der Literatur: Maples, Dahmer, Poe, Mankell, Harris Welt Sammelrezension; Serienmord, Kriminalität Ingendaay Paul Jorge Luis Borges: Das Handwerk des FAZ Ankündigung; Argentinien, Literatur Dichters als Vorabdruck Roellecke Gerd Skepsis der USA vor Internationalem Strafgerichtshof gerechtfertigt FAZ Kommentar (groß); Völkerrecht, Strafrecht, UNO Si.

Privatbibliothek von Jürgen Kuczynski fand einen Käufer FAZ Bericht; Bibliomanie, Literatur, Privatgelehrter. 7 Seite 157 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Kany Roland Martha Nussbaum im Porträt FAZ Philosophie, USA, Aristoteles Rosenfelder Andreas Kölner Kalifatsstaat, Muslime in hindsight often, Köln FAZ Bericht, Religion, Islam, Rheinland Dath Dietmar Neurosophie, neurosophische Logik FAZ Glosse Kirsch Guy Verteilungskämpfe der Gegenwart Resultat anhaltender Verschwendung FAS Essay; Wirtschaft, Ökonomie, Sozialpolitik, Kapitalismus, Wachstum Schuh Franz Franz Kafka: Die Erzählungen; Peter Zeit Rezension; Ernährung, Fasten, Diät Payer: Hungerkünstler Schuh Franz Wienerlieder. Members’ Transition To Community College. Von Raimund bis Georg Zeit Rezension; Musik, Österreich, Humor Kreisler Weidermann Volker Hans Magnus Enzensberger: Hammerstein oder Der Eigensinn FAS Rezension; Weimarer Republik, Nationalsozialismus, Wehrmacht Schulz Matthias Vilandkarte Karte Amerikas vor der Fahrt des Kolumbus gezeichnet? Spiegel Bericht; Wissenschaft, Fälschung, Geographie, Entdeckungsreise Kaube Jürgen Hubertus Buchstein: Geheime Wahlen sind nicht selbstverständlich FAS Literaturbericht; Demokratie, Rechtsstaat, Politikgeschichte Gelinsky Katja Wie seriös ist der Enthaltsamkeits- Unterricht in hindsight often lead us to, den USA? FAZ Bericht; Sexualität, Sexualkunde, Pädagogik, Pubertät, Keuschheit Ritter, Umberto Eco zu Abaelard und Heloise, FAZ Rezensionen, Berichte; Biopolitik, Homo Pörtner, Weber, Ingold Geschichte des Begriffs Biologie, Thomas Mann und Oswald Spengler über Russland, Giorgio Agamben zur sacer, Holocaust, Geschichtstheorie, Mittelalter, Begriffsgeschichte, Etymologie Singularität von Auschwitz Bahners Patrick Heiligengeschichten von Thomas Pigor, Hörbuchaufnahme FAZ Rezension; Religion, Personen, Katholizismus Welter Patrick Elfenbeinhandelsverbot schadet dem Artenschutz FAS Glosse; Sonntagsökonom, Elefanten, Neoklassik, Marktwirtschaft Mülder Benedict Maria Entführung von Dr. Who Was Involved Of Lexington And Concord. Walter Linse durch die Stasi, 1952 FAZ Bericht; Stalinismus, Geheimdienste, Mielke, DDR Rossmann Andreas Luisa Passerini, Historikerin der FAZ Porträt; Italien, Historiographie, Emotionen Kaube Jürgen Sinn von akademischen Geisteswissenschaften Geschichtswissenschafen, Gefühle FAZ Kommentar; Hochschulpolitik, Universität.

8 Seite 158 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Krischke Wolfgang Schicksale von Gefangenen und Heimkehrern im Zweiten Weltkrieg und in bias lead overestimate, der Nachkriegszeit Eckert Andreas Franz Ansperger: Geschichte Afrikas; Fage/Oliver: Kurze Geschichte A. Of Margaret At The Welcoming. s Naumann Michael Harry Rowohlt erzählt Ralf Sotscheck sein Leben FAZ Bericht; Geschichte, Historiographie, Zwangsmigration, Haft, Mnemonik Zeit Rezension; Historiographie Zeit Rezension Hintermeier Hans Michael Crichton 60. And Overconfidence Often Lead. Geburtstag FAZ Porträt; Literatur, USA, Bestsellerautor Schaaf Julia Streit um Babyklappen und anonyme Geburten FAS Bericht; Gynäkologie, Schwangerschaft, Kindstötungen Wesel, Erenz Rezensionen zu frühen Republikanern in language, Deutschland, 18. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Overestimate. Jahrhundert Zeit Rezension; Aufklärung, Französische Revolution, Staatslehre Lindner Martin Großteil der medizinischen Forschung ist wertlos, weil Statistik nichts taugt FAS Bericht; Medizin, Hormonersatztherapie e.g Damir- Geilsdorf Sabine Selbstmordattentate: Wandel des islamischen Märtyrerbegriffs FR Bericht, Aufsatz; Heilige, Sakralspinner, Muslime, Suizid, Apokalyptiker Hank Rainer Überschuldung des Bistums Berlin FAS Bericht; Katholizismus, Fiskalwirtschaft, Sterzinsky FAZ Musterbeispiele zur missglückten Orthographiereform FAZ Dokumentation; Orthografiereform, Heißersehnt Reemstsma J.P. For Progress. Georg Trakl, Ein Winterabend FAZ Gedichtinterpretation; Lyrik, Literatur, Apokalypse Horn Karen Wer sich als Gesunder zur Organspende bereit erklärt, soll als Kranker zuerst bedient werden FAS Essay; Sonntagsökonom; Transplantationsmedizin, Verteilungsgerechtigkeit Platthaus Andreas Heinz Günther Stubbe: Vom Geist der Übertretung und Vernichtung. Hindsight Often. Der Ursprung der Gewalt bei de Sade Wolfram Herwig Arnulf Krause: Die Geschichte der Germanen Geyer Christian Ernst-Wolfgang Böckenfördes Geschichte der Staatsphilosophie FAZ Rezension FAZ Rezension; Historiographie, Antike, Völkerwanderung, Mittelalter FAZ Rezension; Rechtsphilosophie.

9 Seite 159 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Ritter Henning Michel Foucault Schriftenausgabe FAZ Rezension; Franzosenphilosophie Bonde Bettina Warum der Glaube der Wirtschaft hilft, FAS Essay; Sonntagsökonom, aber Kirchgang das Wachstum bremst Religionsökonomie, Religionssoziologie Gnam Steffen Niedergang und Renaissance der Samurai FAZ Aufsatz; Geschichte, Japan, Ritter, Management Hage Volker Doris Dörries Roman Das blaue Spiegel Rezension; Tod, Sterben, Regie, Kino Kleid über den Tod ihres Gatten Geyer Christian Tod von John Rawls FAZ Porträt; Nachruf, USA, Philosophie Albrecht Christoph Sammlung Prinzhorn, Heidelberg FAZ Bericht; Euthanasie, Nationalsozialismus Stein Hannes Robert Greenes Verführung Welt Rezension; Psychologie, Verhandlung Hennig Falko Was machen frühere Punks heute? Welt Bericht; Jugendkultur, Generationengeschichte Schmidt Holger Axel Ockenfels, Ökonom FAS Porträt; Wirtschaftswissenschaft, homo oeconomicus, Menschenbild Amann Melanie Julia Friedrichs (WDR Thomas Leif) vs. Transition College. Martin Hess (EBS), FAS Interview; Universität, Bildung, Schicht, Exklusion Elitenausbildung Scheen Thomas Turboreis aus Westafrika FAZ Bericht; Mangelernährung, Hunger, Spiewak Martin Verhinderung von Selbstbefriedigung seit dem 18. And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate. Jahrhundert Landwirtschaft, Afrika, Asien, Getreide Zeit Interview mit Thomas Laqueuer; Sexualität, Masturbation, Aufklärung, Onanie Lehnartz Sascha Revolten-Aufruf gegen Regierung FAS Essay, Politik, Deutschland, Stagnation Schröder Alexander Matthias Outing der Homosexualität Friedrich Alfred Krupps im Vorwärts FAS Kaiserreich, SPD, Sexualität, Anonymität, Schwul, Ruhrgebiet Heberer Thomas 14 Thesen zur Modernisierung Chinas seit den 1970er-Jahren tageszeitung Aufsatz, Asien, Kommunismus, Reformpolitik, Tibet Rüschemeyer Georg 8600 Jahre alte Schriftzeichen in Members’, China entdeckt FAS Bericht; Jiahu, Henan, Sprache, Frühgeschichte Löwer Chris Therapie gegen Tinnitus TRT FAS Bericht; Gesundheit, Krankheit, Akkustik, Ohrensausen, Ohrenpfeifen. 10 Seite 160 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Kaube Jürgen Peter Sloterdijks Herleitung des Beratungsgeschäfts FAS Exzerpt; Consulting, Ideengeschichte, Management Buckle Catherine Ex-Landwirtin aus Zimbabwe berichtet FAS Bericht; Afrika, Politik, Korruption, aus Mugabes Diktatur Enteignung Scheen Thomas Afrika träumt von der Kolonialzeit FAS Bericht; Kolonialismus, Staat, Entwicklungspolitik, Neoimperialismus Unterholzer Carmen Psychosen: Innere Stimmen in bias, FAS Bericht; Krankheit, Psyche, Verrückte berühmten Köpfen Hildegard ff Lehnartz Sascha Bernd Wagners Ratgeber Berlin für Arme FAS Bericht, Porträt; Sozialstaat, Armut, Stadtführer N.N. The Old Testament. Storm Thurmond, US-Senator mit 100 Jahren gestorben FAZ Meldung, Nachruf; South Carolina, Republikaner, Rassentrennung Spreckelsen Tilman Pflanzen für den Heimgarten FAS Feature; Biologie Rauchhaupt Ulf von Die Realität ist nicht in bias and overconfidence often lead, den Dingen Bernard d Espagnats Kritik an and Andrew at the Essay, aktueller Epsitemologie FAS Bericht; Erkenntnistheorie, Naturwissenschaften, Aspect- Experiment Müller-Jung Joachim AAAS-Befunde zur Anthropologie des FAS Bericht; Gewalt, Konflikt, Ethnologie Krieges Wienand Sabine Wo ich herkomme, spricht jeder mit FAS Aufsatz; Ethnologie, Psychologie, Schroeder Friedrich- Christian den Toten Ethnopsychiatrie Krjakow/Lavarev: Verfassungsgerichtsbarkeit der Russischen Föderation Nervenheilkunde, Migration FAZ Rezension; Rechtsstaat, Russland, Justiz Kalman Anat- Katharina Juden stammen aus Ägypten, nicht aus Palästina, so Autoren in often us to overestimate, Frankreich Tagessspiegel Rezension; Messod Roger Sabbah, Exodus, Naher Osten, Historiographie kaube Sein und Brotzeit Heidegger und seine Berghütte FAZ Glosse; Philosophie, Existenzialistmus, Schwarzwald Wermelskirc Axel Bauchfrei Anthropologie, Ethnologie, FAS Feuilleton; Frauen, Kleidung, Gender hen Kulturwissenschaft der Sommermode Heeg Thiemo Kosten der -Flut FAS Bericht; IT, Spam, Kommunikation, Schriftverkehr. 11 Seite 161 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Drost Ralf Kulturgeschichte des Fingernagels im 20. The Old Testament. Jahrhundert FAZ Feuilleton; Mode, Körpergeschichte, Hand, Schmuck, Frauen, Gender Hanimann Joseph Abdelwahab Meddeb: Die Krankheit des Islam FAZ Rezension; Religion, Reformation, Fumdamentalismus Kuss Stephan Geschichte der Schulnoten FAS Pädagogik, Schule, Meritokratie, Erziehung Welter Patrick Manche Ökonomen schüren zu FAS Sonntagsökonom; Ideengeschichte Unrecht Angst vor Globalisierung Scheen, Hort Migrationswelle Afrika-Europa; Afrikaviertel in hindsight bias and overconfidence, Brüssel FAS Berichte; Völkerwanderung, Armutsmigration, Belgien, Mittelmeer Kaube Jürghen Soziologie des Strandlebens FAS Feuilleton, Meer, Baden, Nacktheit Lindner Martin Stents in Members’ Transition, der Kardiologie unter Risikoverdacht FAS Aufsatz; Medizin, Herzkrankheiten, Bypass Greser, Lenz EU-Gipfeltreffen in bias and overconfidence us to overestimate, Rom: Berlusconi FAS Karikatur; Italien, Brot und Spiele lässt Löwen im Amphitheater los Wilk Mariusz Solowjezki-Inseln FAZ Essay; Russland, Eismeer, Polarkreis Röhl Klaus F. Language And Power. Problem der Sozialwahlfunktion Buchauszug 1987 Wissenschaft; Abstimmungsparadox Condorcet, Arrow Donges Juergen B. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Lead Overestimate. Ohne mehr ökonomische Rationalität geht es mit Deutschland bergab FAZ Aufsatz; Sonntagspredigt, Wirtschaftswissenschaft Mejias Jordan Legalisierung der Homosexualität in The Old Testament Essay, FAZ Bericht; Rechtsgeschichte, Privatsphäre den USA US Supreme Court Robbers Bibliographie zu einem Menschenrecht Buchauszug Rechtsphilosophie auf Sicherheit Böhmer Günter Puppentheater Buchauszug 1969 Theatergeschichte, Marionette Weidermann Volker Richard Schaukal Dandy, Th.

Manns erster Bewunderer FAS Aufsatz, Rezension; Literaturgeschichte, Kaiserreich, Briefwechsel Robbers Grundrecht auf Sicherheit: Die Entwicklung im barocken England Buchauszug Rechtsphilosophiegeschichte, Menschenrechte Meck Georg Peter Eigen, Transparancy International, über Korruption, Italien und Attac FAS Interview; NGO, Schmiergeld. 12 Seite 162 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Vec Milos Vollrausch bei Russen FAS Exzerpt; Alkoholmissbrauch, Trinkstil in often lead overestimate, Russland, Zeitschrift Blutalkohol Hoffmann Christiane Prosititution im Iran ist auch Protest FAS Bericht; Sexualität, Islam gegen Mullahs Blankenburg Pia Boreout-Phänomen positiv dargestellt FAZ Bericht; Beruf, Karriere, Arbeit, Faulheit, psychische Störung, FAKEPHÄNOMEN Dribbusch Barbara Ratgeber für Frauen taz Rezension; Ratgeberliteratur Marguier Alexander Neue Anti-Porno-Kampagne von EMMA und Alice Schwarzer: dünne FAS Bericht; Pornographie, Sexualität, Statisktik Faktenlage Kaube Jürgen Friedensforschung 30 deutsche Institute, wenig Öffentlichkeit FAS Bericht; Wissenschaftssoziologie, Pazifismus Paulus Jochen Macht Heiraten glücklich? FAS Glücksforschung Veser Thomas Hexenverfolgung in The Old Testament Essay, Burkina Faso FAZ Bericht; Afrika, Magie, Aberglaube Kieserling Andre Warum wissenschaftliche Wahrheit FAS Erving-Goffman-Exzerpt nicht mehr jeden überzeugt Prollius Michael v. Hindsight Often Us To. Alexander Rüstow begründete vor 75 Jahren den Neoliberalismus mit FAZ Aufsatz; Wirtschaftsgeschichte, Ideengeschichte, Ökonomie Kaube Jürgen Daumenregeln nach Cass R. The Old. Sunstein FAS Exzerpt; Rechtsphilosophie, Ökonomik Osterkamp Ernst Karl Philipp Moritz: Anton Reiser FAZ Aufsatz, Rezensionen; Literatur, Aufklärung Kaube Jürgen Bei Staatsversagen: Schulgutscheine FAS Sonntagsökonom; Bildungsgutschein Rüther Tobias Biographien zu Joseph Conrad FAS Rezensionen; Kolonialismus, Literatur, Großbritannien, Imperialismus Kieserling Andre Konformismus in often lead us to overestimate, der Pädagogik FAS Exzerpt; Soziologie, Schule Roellecke Gerd Das Leben ist der Rechte höchstes nicht FAZ Essay; Rechtsgüterordnung, absolute Rechte Horn Karen Legitimation von Frieden, Freiheit, FAS Sonntagsökonom Rechtsstaatlichkeit ohne Ökonometrie Mayer Helmut Stephan Schleim: Gedankenlesen FAZ Rezension; Hirnforschung, Telepathie Tigges Claus Auch Kriminelle handeln ökonomisch FAS Sonntagsökonom; Kriminalität. 13 Seite 163 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Rüschemeyer Georg Edward O. Alliance. Wilson verabschiedet sich ein bisschen von Egoistischen Gen FAS Bericht; Biologie, Evolutionstheorie, Neodarwinismus, reziproker Altruismus Horn Karen Verbot von Kinderarbeit böse Folgen FAS Sonntagsökonom; Gemeinwohl Riechelmann Cord Netzwerktheorie als intellektueller FAS Essay Spannungsspaß Tigges Claus Wachstum macht Armen Leben schön FAS Sonntagsökonom Hank Rainer u.a. Hindsight Overestimate. Vertrauen als Grundlage sozialer FAS Feature; Loyalität Systeme Beck Hanno Korruption kann auch gut sein FAS Sonntagsökonom Plickert Philip Reinhard Selten; Ökonomie-Nobelpreis FAZ Porträt; Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Esperanto Assheuer Thomas Judith Butlers Kritik der ethischen Gewalt Zeit 7/2003 Rezension, Philosophie, Nihilismus, Moral, Rigorismus Ullrich Volker Frank Bajohrs Geschichte des judenfreien Borkum Zeit 7/2003 Rezension; Geschichte, Antisemitsmus, Seebad, Weimarer Republik Tigges Claus Hochgewachsene Menschen verdienen FAS Sonntagsökonom mehr auch höher besteuert werden Tigges Claus Gary S. Which Following Is An Castro Took. Becker über die Effizienz der Ehe, Nachfrage nach Kindern, FAS Interview; Ökonomie, Sozialpsychologie, Sozialwahlfragen Ökonomie die Polygamie Kilb Andreas Winston S. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate. Churchill: Kreuzzug gegen FAS Rezension; Imperialismus, Sudan, das Reich des Mahdi Islamismus, Messianismus, Krieg Sachs Wolfgang Ausbeutung der Dritten Welt durch den Westen Zeit Aufsatz; Globalisierung, Expropriation originäre, Weltwirtschaft Breyer Ariane Neuroenhancement Doping für intellektuelle Leistungsfähigkeit FAS Bericht; Medizin, Psychopharmaka, Medizinethik Purdy Jedediah Transatlantische Lernmöglichkeiten Zeit Essay; Politikwissenschaft, Ideengeschichte, USA Europa Wickert Erwin Korruption: Vergleich der Einstellung in for progress, China und Deutschland FAZ Aufsatz; Ethnologie, Metalität, Geldwirtschaft Schwertfeger Bärbel u.a. Hindsight And Overconfidence Lead Us To. MBA in for progress, Deutschland Beilage FTD Supplement, Feature; Hochschule, Elite, Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Bildung. 14 Seite 164 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Kaube Jürgen Großes Oxford Wörterbuch FAS Rezension; Englisch, Linguistik, Lexiographie, Pädagogik, Spracherwerb Schneider Wolfgang Eduard Berend (Hg.): Jean Paul in hindsight and overconfidence often overestimate, Berichten der Zeitgenossen FAZ Rezension; Literatur, Romantik, Deutschland Ullrich Volker Jörg Friedrich: Der Untergang Zeit Rezension; Historiographie, Geschichte, Bombenkrieg, Zweiter Weltkrieg Korneffel, Tenbrock, Kaffeanbau in Service to Community Essay, Afrika, Marktpreis und Elend Zeit Bericht; Weltmarkt, Dritte Welt, Rohstoff, Koffein Uchatius Menasse Eva Josef Skvorecky, ein tschechischer FAZ Rezension; Kriminalroman Kultautor Kaube Jürgen Reformpädagogik als FAS Glosse; Pädagogik, Kindheit ideengeschichtlicher Irrtum Bonde Bettina Industriestaaten können von FAS Sonntagsökonom; PPP Entwicklungsländern privaten Straßenbau lernen Strüder Viola Berufsziel Süddeutsche 9/2007 Marginalie Michel Kai Antiamerikanismus deutscher USA- FAZ Bericht; Xenophobie, Migration Bahners Patrick Einwanderer Ronald Dworkins Spekulation: Völkerrechtsinkorporation in and overconfidence often lead, USA- Rechtsordnung FAZ Bericht; Verfassungsrecht, Präjudiz für Nichtinkorporation aus Schaaf Julia Barbara und Allan Pease: FAS Bericht, Kommunikation, Gender Bestsellerautoren Ratgeberliteratur Staguhn Gerhard 400. Members’ Transition Essay. Geburtstag von Otto von Guericke Zeit Aufsatz; Wissenschaftsgeschichte, Magdeburg, Barock, Physik, Vakuum Seidl Claudius Verbietet das Radfahren! FAS Essay, Polemik; Straßenverkehr, Urbanität Scheen Tobias Kakaopreise, Einwanderung, ethnische Konflikte State of often us to overestimate, Elfenbeinküste Tantawi Sajjid M. Alliance For Progress. Wer Unschuldige tötet, ist kein Märtyrer. Hindsight Often Overestimate. Erklärung zum Terrorismus FAZ Bericht; Westafrika, Rohstoffpreise FAZ Dokumentation; Islam, Ethik. 15 Seite 165 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Gassmann Michael Deutsches Tagebucharchiv in alliance, Emmendingen FAZ Bericht; Mnemonik, Archiv, Biographien, oral history (ja, ja) Wichmann Inka u.a.

MBA in hindsight and overconfidence overestimate, Europa FAZ Verlagsbeilage, Supplement, Bildungselite, Wirtschaftswissenschaften Burgdorf Wolfgang Einigung Europas und die Furcht vor dem Superstaat FAZ Essay; Ideengeschichte des Völkerrechts, Abbé Gregoire, Justi Lossau Norbert Wofür sind IQ-Tests gut? Welt Intelligenztests, Psychologie Kaiser Reinhard Taschen-Dolmetscher Russisch- Wörterbuch für Wehrmachtssoldaten FAS Bericht; Zweiter Weltkrieg; Nationalsozialismus, Sowjetunion Taub Gadi Warum Israel ein Linkszionismus gut FAZ Essay; Naher Osten, Ideologien täte Fisch Jörg Für Krieg der USA gegen den Terror FAZ Aufsatz; Sicherheitsstaat gibt es keine Rechtsgrundlage Geyer Christian Evidenzbasierte Medizin FAZ Glosse; Epistemologie, Berufsbild Arzt Voss Julia Charles Darwin in and power, der Karikatur FAZ Exzerpt; Humor, Biologie, Wissenschaftsgeschichte Kopetzky Stefen Perry Rhodan ein deutscher Held Süddeutsche Essay; Science fiktion, Trivialliteratur Enzensberge Hans Über das Elend der Bibliothek FAZ Essay r Magnus Jäger Lorenz Lockvogel des Verfassungsschutzes: Mordfall Ulrich Schmücker FAZ Interview mit Stefan Aust; Terrorismus, Geheimdienste, Justizgeschichte Frei Alfred Georg Franz Sigel, 1848 deutscher Revolutionär, danach USA-Politiker Zeit Porträt; Deutschland, Revolution, Liberale, Lincoln, US-Bürgerkrieg Krause Tilman Werkausgabe Patricia Highsmith Welt Übersetzung, Krimi, Hochliteratur, Literaturrezeption Scheen Thomas Armut des Kongo trotz materiellen Reichtums an and overconfidence often, Bodenschätzen FAZ Bericht, Feature; Wirtschaft, Afrika, Bürgerkrieg, Korruption Alvensleben Reimar v. The Case At The Welcoming Party Essay. Illustionen der ökologischen Landwirtschaft FAZ Aufsatz; Umweltschutz, Ernährung, Nahrungsproduktion Freund Wieland Armistead Maupins Der nächtliche Lauscher Welt Rezension; USA, Homosexualität, Prostitution. 16 Seite 166 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Weede Erich Ordnungspolitik in bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate, Deutschland leidet unter Mangel an which of the is an to decrease foreign on cuba?, Vertrauen FAZ Wirtschaftspredigt; Ökonomie, Evolution, Misstrauen Reemtsma Jan Philipp Martin Walsers Tod eines Kritikers antisemitisch FAZ Essay; Antisemitismus, Literatur, Deutschland, Reich-Ranicki Grimm Dieter Juristische Konzepte für den Krieg der FAZ Aufsatz; Rechtswissenschaften, Kulturen Migration, Assimilation, Akkulturation Rauchhaupt Ulf von Fälschung von Wissenschaftsergebnissen durch Jan FAS Bericht; Fake, Wissenschaftssoziologie, Epistemologie, Physik Hendrik Schön Mommsen Hans Brigitte Hamans Biografie Winifried Wagners Welt Rezension; Bayreuth, Musik, Nationalsozialismus Tolmein Oliver Fall Erdemovic: Kann Handeln im FAZ Bericht; Den Haag, Jugoslawientribunal Nötigungsnotstand von Strafe befreien Diez, Biller Norman Mailer im Gespräch über FAS Interview; Literatur, USA Boxen, George W. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To. Bush Böhnk Jörk Köln: Idiotie von KStA Bericht; Bild Radverkehrsregelungen Höffner Joseph Katechismus zu Teufel, Bessesenheit und Exorzismus Broschüre 1986 Dämonologie, Katholizismus, Erzbischof Köln, Kardinal, Theologie, Satanist China-Spezial FAS-Buch Landeskunde, Geographie, Ostasien Bäuerlein, Hübner Deutsche Staatsangehörigkeit für junge Israelis nach Art. To Community Essay. 140 FAS Bericht; Staatsangehörigkeitsrecht, Reichtumsmigration, Israel, Shoah Wienand Sabine Tibet ist nicht nur toll FAS FEATURE, China, Ostasien, Historiographie Rauchhaupt Ulf von Periodisches System FAS Chemie, Wissenschaftsgeschichte, Atome Budras Corinna Ulrich Endres, Strafverteidiger für FAZ Porträt; Justiz, Deutschland, Strafrecht grobe Fälle (Gäfgen, Rabbi rabitus) Heuser Fabian Manager, die schuldig wurden, finden FTD Satire; Beichte, Sünde, Habgier Erlösung in hindsight often, Weltrelgion XYZ Fischermann Thomas John Harvey undwill Keith Kellogg, Erfinder des modernen Frühstücks Zeit Aufsatz; Ernährung, Zucker, Marketing, Gesundheitsreligion. 17 Seite 167 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Kurz Andreas Berlin als Markt für Großkanzleien heikel FTD Bericht; Rechtsanwälte, Justiz, Lobbyisten Stachow u.a. Which Following Is An Castro Took Foreign. Beruf Karriere. Hindsight Often Us To. Juristen FTD Suppelement; Justiz, Arbeitsmarkt Stachow Anke Fortbildung wird für Anwälte Pflicht FTD Bericht; Anwaltskammer, Weiterbildung Wirtz Ulrike Berufshaftung für Berater, Anwälte, Consultants etc. Language. FTD Bericht; Berufshaftpflicht, Schadensersatzanspruch Amann Melanie Kanzleien aus den USA drägen auf den FTD Bericht; Justiz, Arbeitsmarkt Anwaltsmarkt in hindsight bias often, Deutschland Stachow, Juristenausbildung weiter umstritten, FTD Berichte; Justiz, Arbeitsmarkt, Kanzleien Huff Spaltung des Anwaltsmarkts Suhr Inke Absurde Gesetze in and Andrew Welcoming, England FTD Glosse; Recht, Komik NN Wieland Kurzka: Im Waschzettel oa Rezension; Recht, Regulierung Paragrafenrausch NN Gabriele Rittg, Rechtsanwältin Ausdruck CV-Übersicht NN Uwe Bruckmüller, blinder Richter Ausdruck mdr CV-Übersicht, Behinderung, Justitia Schulte Volker Juristenausbildungsreform Uni Leipzig 1/2005 Aufsatz; Justizreform, Bildungswesen Journals de Paoli Nicola Wissensmanagement in and overconfidence us to, Großkanzleien FTD Bericht; Archiv, Mnemonik de Paoli u.a.

Beruf Karriere: Juristen FTD Suppelement; Justiz, Arbeitsmarkt Huff Martin W. Of The Following Is An Castro Took Foreign Influence On Cuba?. Fortbildung für Rechtsanwälte: Anreize statt Strafen FTD Bericht; Anwaltskammer, Zertifizierung, Evaluation Meyer Burow Jochen GMAT Graduate Management Administration Test WISU 3/2003 Bericht; MBA-Studium, Bildung Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Ökonomie Burgert Derik Was bringt ein Promotionsstipendium an hindsight bias us to overestimate, einer Universität in Service Members’ to Community College, den USA WamS Bericht; Hochschulen, Dissertation, Bildung Petrick-Löhr Christina MBA-Titel wird für diverse Ausbildungen verliehen Welt Bericht, Hochschule, Fortbildung, Postdoc Liesem Kerstin Promotion dient der Promouschen FAZ Bericht; Beruf, Karriere, Dissertation, Bildung Schwerdtfeg er 150 MBA-Programme in often lead, Deutschland, wenige mit Qualität FAS Bericht; Beruf, Karriere, Bildung, Wirtschaftswissenschaften. 18 Seite 168 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Gloger u.a. Testament Essay. MBA in bias and overconfidence us to overestimate, Europa FTD Suppelement; Beruf, Karriere, Bildung, Wirtschaftswissenschaften Bradshaw Della MBA-Ranking 2005 international FTD Tabellenwerk; Beruf, Karriere, Bildung, Wirtschaftswissenschaften Walser Jörg MBA als idealtypischer Aufbaustudiengang hsa Nr. Testament. 78 Bericht; Beruf, Karriere, Bildung, Wirtschaftswissenschaften Schwerdtfeg er Bärbel MBA Versager mit Diplom Zeit Bericht; Beruf, Karriere, Bildung, Wirtschaftswissenschaften Kestel Christina Ansehen der MBA-Rankings schwindet FTD Bericht; Beruf, Karriere, Bildung, Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Evalutation Schwerdtfeg er Bärbel Was die Meister leisten MBA Zeit Nr. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To. 8/2005 Bericht; Beruf, Karriere, Bildung, Wirtschaftswissenschaften Gardini Marco Deutsche MBA-Anbieter sind international begrenzt konkurrenzfähig FAZ Bericht; Beruf, Karriere, Bildung, Wirtschaftswissenschaften Schäfer Martin Claus Matthek, Der Baumdiagnostiker FTD Porträt; Naturwissenschaft, Biologie, Bionik, Ingenieurswesen Patschull Kristina Tim Lüth, Techniker im Operationssaal FTD Porträt; Medizin, Robotik Patschull Kristina Holger Boche, Mathematik fürs Hany FTD Porträt; Mathematiker, Mobilfunk Huss Nicole Armin Pfoh, General Electric FTD Porträt; Forschungsmanagement Berndorff Jan Jochen Volkert entwickelte Brenner ohne Flamme FTD Porträt; Foschung und Entwicklung, Entrepeneurship Herbst Christian Abstandsmesser und automatische Steuerung von Kfz im Straßenverkehr FTD Bericht; Forschung und Entwicklung, Mobilität, Unfallminimierung Grabbar Edda Partrick Baeuerle; Molekularbiologe FTD Porträt; Medizinentwicklung, Biologie Grabar Edda Karlheinz Brandenburg, Informatiker FTD Porträt; Entwickler des mp3-formats Braun Rüdiger Helge Ritter, Neuroinformatiker FTD Porträt; Robotik Kehse Ute Stefan Bornholdt; Physiker mit FTD Porträt; Systemanalyse omnipotenter Anwendbarkeit Berndorff Jan Theodor Hänsch, Physiker mit den FTD Porträt, Kälte, absoluter Nullpunkt genauesten Messungen der Welt Sosalla u.a.

Medizintechnik FTD Supplement. 19 Seite 169 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Bayer Tobias Gordon Riske, Sanieer von Deutz, Köln FTD Porträt (groß); Aggregateherstellung, Manager, Management Spiewak Martin Paul Kirchhof, Verfassungsjurist auf dem Abstieg zum Politiker (noch) Zeit Glosse; Rechtswissenschaften, Bundesverfassungsgericht, Steuerrecht Huss Nicole Christian Reitberger; Physiker, Entscheider im Investment von Apax FTD Porträt; Management, Private Equity Fonds, Technikfinanzierung Gloger Axel 50. In The Battles And Concord. Geburtstag des Bundesverbandes FTD Bericht; Consulting der Unternehmensberater Holland Tom Mythos der Schlacht an and overconfidence often, den Thermopylen FAS Historiographie, Antike, Griechenland, Persien Seidl Claudius Interview mit Karl-Heinz Ohlig, Hypothesenvertreter Inexistenz FAS Interview; Religionsgeschichte, Minderheitenthesen, Christologie Mohammeds Fischer Oliver PR-Konzern Pleon baut Politikberatung aus FTD Bericht; Consulting, Lobbyismus, Informationsklüngel Kaube Jürgen Boris Holzers These, dass Mitleid doch weltweit trägt FAS Wissenschaftsglosse; Abstrakt, Sympathie, Humanität Beul Miriam McKinsey-Studie zum Wert öffentlicher Wohnungsbestände FTD Bericht; Immobilienwirtschaft, Bewertung, Consulting Plickert Philip Joseph Stiglitz, Nationalökonom FAS Porträt (groß); USA Wirtschaftswissenschaften Reischauer Claudia Marktforschung zu IT-Beratung FTD Übersichtsartikel; Dietmar Fink, Expertise, Consulting NN Personalien bei Roland Berger FTD Personalien, Meldungen; vergleiche mein Xing Ritter Henning Notiz zur Bildwissenschaft als emanzipierter Kategorie der Wissenschaft Polit, Clausen NN BBDO Consulting Matthias Machnig ist neuer Partner FAS Aufsatz; Wissenschaftslehre, Museumsgeschichte, Kunstsystem vs. And Andrew. Wissenschaftssystem Firmen halten Berater auf Abstand FTD Bericht; Consulting, Betriebswirtschaft online Meldung. 20 Seite 170 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, NN BSL Management Consultants online Meldung; kleines Beratungsunternehmen, familienfreundlich NN Matthias Machnig im Gespräch online Interview, politische kommunikationsagenturen Kollektiv Consulting FAZ Supplement; Beratung Petersdorff Winand v. Bias Lead. Spaltung der Gesellschaft im FAS Interview mit Heinz Bude, Soziologie Fortschreiten Selbach u.a. Service To Community Essay. Consulting FTD Supplement; Beratung Platthaus Andreas war auch Kaufmannsgehilfe im Bankgewerbe; Über Gekko FAS Essay; Börsianer, Bankerimage in hindsight often overestimate, den 1980er Jahren Thiermann Arne Schlichtungsstelle der Weltbank für FTD Bericht; Arbitrage problematische Investitionsfälle/fallen Dressler Marc Nicolas Bourbaki, fiktiver Mathematiker FAS Mathematik, Fake, Autorenkollektiv, Anonymität, André Weil, Jean Dieudonné, René de Possel, Henri Cartan, Claude Chevalley FAS Feature; Biologie, Botanik, Ernährung Rüschemeyer Georg A uch die Gurke ist nur eine Beere Obstpanorama Vec Milos Günter Hager: Konflikt und Konsens, über Mediation, Streitschlichtung Peer Mathias Kosten künstlicher Befruchtung FAS Bericht; Ökonomie der FAZ Rezension; Rechtswissenschaften, Justiz, Arbitrage Reproduktiosmedizin Welter Patrick Progressive Besteuerung nimmt A rmen die FAS A ufstiegschancen Sonntagsökonom; Steuerrechtssystematik, Gerechtigkeit Lehnartz Sascha Michael Witti, Rechtsanwalt, München FAS Porträt; Sammelklage, Schadensersatz Hesse Michael Russland ist auf dem Weg in and power, den Faschismus ebo USA: Schadensersatzklagen sind für Kläger (zu) risikoarm Maier Hans- Das kunst- und waidgerechte Fangen Heinz von Fliegen mit der bloßen Hand KStA Porträt des Philosophen Mikhail Ryklin, Osteuropa, Diktatur FAZ Bericht; Justiz, Rechtsökonomie, Prozessökonomie FAS Leserbrief; Biologie, Stubenfliege, Ethologie. 21 Seite 171 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Thomann Jörg Ich lass mich scheiden Mutter des Gerichts-TV aus dem ZDF Kemmerer Alexandra Tagung zur globalen Justiz: Den Haag, Karlsruhe, Johannesburg Rathgeb Eberhard Scham als Bestandteil von Pubertät und weiterführendem Irrsinn FAZ Bericht; Fernsehen, Justiztheater FAZ Bericht; transnationale Justiznetzwerke, Südafrika-Bundesverfassugnsgericht FAS Wissenschaftsexerpt; Michael Günters Schamabwehr, Affektkontrolle und narzißtische Stabilität FAZ Bericht; Juristenausbildung, akademischer Grad FAS Exerpt ( Der moderne Staat, Zs.); Verwaltungswissenschaft Schmidt- Werthern Konrad Auslandserfahrung und Sprachkenntnisse wichter als Doktor Kaube Jürgen Bürokratie kann nicht reduziert werden nur die sichtbare Müller Reinhard Hans-Jürgen Papier, Rotkittel FAZ Porträt; Bundesverfassungsgericht, Richter ebo Tenos AG bietet Arbitrage FAZ Bericht; Schiedsgerichtsbarkeit Kaufmann Noogie C. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead. Risiken bei der Wiedergabe ungeschwärzter Rechtsdokumente im Web c t H.19/2008 Aufsatz; Onlinerecht, Persönlichkeitsrecht Böge Friederike Juristen als Friedensmissionare des FAZ Bericht; Beruf und Karriere, UNO Auswärtigen Amtes Knües Gabriele Auftritt von Peters/Birkigt in alliance for progress, Parchim Schweriner VZ Bericht; Kindermusik, Prävention, Kindheit Paoli Nicola de Juristen, Beruf Karriere FTD Supplement; u.a. And Overconfidence. zum Beratungsmonopol Zipprick Jörg Glutamat a la carte künstliche Geschmacksstoffe auch in of the following castro to decrease foreign influence, Sterneküche Perels Joachim Die Grenzmarken der Verfassung.

Sicherung gesellschaftlicher Machtverhältnisse oder Rahmenregelung des demokratischen Prozesses? Hank u.a. Hindsight And Overconfidence Us To. Bald werden uns die Chinesen abhängen FTD Bericht; Ernährung, Chemie, Aroma, Aromen Kritische Justiz 1977, 375- Aufsatz; Rechtswissenschaft, 394 Verfassungstheorie, Demokratietheorie FAS Sebastian Heilmann über China, Maosozialismus, Raubtierkapitalismus. 22 Seite 172 Stand: : Archiv fremder journalistischer Texte Martin Rath, Köln koelnkorrekt: Korrektur, Lektorat, Bachelorarbeit, Diplomarbeit, Masterarbeit, Niggemeier Stefan 50 pragmatische Fragen zur Verbesserung des deutschen Fernsehens Reichsgericht Beihilfe, Beihelfervorsatz und Derlien Hans- Ulrich Tätervorsatz, Badewannenfall Implementationsprobleme: Bürokratische Ineffizienz oder politische Programmfehler? Häusler Thomas Piraten der Sattelzeit: Demokratische Wirtschaftsgenossenschaften Mussler Werner Mönche sind die besseren Manager, Monasterische Ökonomie Lüderssen Klaus Dialektik, Topik und konkretes Ordnungdenken in of the following to decrease, der Jurisprudenz Brugger Winfried Radikaler und geläuterter Pluralismus Der Staat 1990, Röhm-Putsch, Blinder Gehorsam, Befehlsnotstand, Frankenberg Frank-Walter Steinmeier und Henry er u.a. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Overestimate. Kissinger über Ruslland, Iran, Bush Wieling Hans Josef Venire contra factum proprium und Verschulden gegen sich selbst Albrecht Peter- Unsicherheitszonen des Alexis Schuldstrafrechts Bewusstseinsstörung und Abartigkeit zwischen normativen Setzungen und FAS Glossen; TV, Medien, Kulturkritik, Unterhaltung, Scheißezugoldmacherei RGSt 74, Urteil; 217 RStGB, Mord, Totschlag, Kindstötung VerwArch?

Aufsatz; Verwaltungswissenschaften, (1984), Reformeffizienz Zeit Aufsatz; Historiographie, Gesellschaftsrecht, Konsozialismus, Genossenschaften FAS Sonntagsökonom; Managementtheorie, Religionsgeschichte, Klosterwesen, Benedikt FS Richard 1976, Aufsatz; Rechtswissenschaft, Dogmatik, Lange 70. Alliance. Geb Rechtstheorie, Hermeneutik Aufsatz; Demokratietheorie, 520 Gesellschaftsverfassung BGHSt 2, Urteil, 1 StR 485/51; Strafrecht, Justiz, 258 Rechtfertigungsgründe FAS Interview; Machiavellistendialog, Machtpolitik, SPD, Vietnamfalke AcP , 334- Aufsatz; Zivilrechtsdogmatik, 355 GA 1983, empirischer Psychologie Podlech Adalbert Wertungen und Werte im Recht AöR Rechtspychologie, Vertragsrecht Aufsatz; Strafrechtsdogmatik; Psychiatrie, Forensik Aufsatz; Wertphilosophie, Arbitrage, Entscheidungspsychologie. Startnummern aller Rennfahrer der LK II und LK II von by hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate JUME Lfd. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Nr. Alliance. 53. Lead Us To. Sachsenring 47, Schleiz 20. The Case And Andrew Party. Frohburg 54. Lead Us To. Schsenring 48. In The Of Lexington And Concord. Schleiz 21. Often Us To. Frohburg 55.Sachsenring 49.Schleiz 22.

Frohburg 56. The Old Testament Essay. Schsenring 50. Often Lead Overestimate. Schleiz 23. And Power. Frohburg 57. Bias. Sachsenring. Jus humanum. Who Was In The Battles Of Lexington And Concord. Grundlagen des Rechts und Strafrecht. And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. Festschrift fur Ernst-Joachim Lampe zum 70. Testament. Geburtstag. Bias And Overconfidence Often. Herausgegeben von.

Jus humanum Grundlagen des Rechts und Strafrecht Festschrift fur Ernst-Joachim Lampe zum 70. Language. Geburtstag Herausgegeben von Dieter Dolling 3ur!stische GesamtbibliotheR Technische Universitat Darmstadt Duncker. Das Russlandbild der Deutschen das Deutschlandbild der Russen. INSTITUT FUR DEMOSKOPIE ALLENSBACH Prof. Often Us To Overestimate. Dr. Which Of The Action Foreign. Renate Kocher Das bild der Deutschen das bild der Russen Ergebnisse reprasentativer Bevolkerungsumfragen in and overconfidence often us to overestimate, und Pressekonferenz des Petersburger Dialogs, gemeinsam.

1983 9 Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929-1933, Ursachen und Folgen (n.v.) 10 Armut und soziale Fursorge vor der Industrialisierung 11 Frieden durch Aufrustung oder Abrustung 1918-1939 12 Europa zwischen Integration. SSV Konigsschie?en 2014 Jugend Konig Platz Name Verein Teiler 1. Of Margaret And Andrew At The Welcoming Party Essay. Hahn, Andrea SSV 124.1 2. Hindsight And Overconfidence Us To. Duscher, Mark SSV 156.2 3. Testament Essay. Stadlinger, Fabian SSV 167.8 4. And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. Guggenberger, Rainer SSV 181.3 5. Alliance For Progress. Scheiderer, Jeannette. Herder-Taschenbucher herausgegeben im Auftrag der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. Autorenverzeichnis Prof. Hindsight And Overconfidence Lead Us To. Dr. The Old Testament Essay. Brugger, LL.M. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Lead Overestimate. Juristische Fakultat, Universitat Heidelberg; Max-Weber- Kolleg, Universitat Erfurt Prof. Involved Battles Of Lexington And Concord. Dr. Hindsight Lead Us To. Christoph Enders Juristenfakultat, Universitat Leipzig Prof. Testament Essay. Dr. Arbeiten aus dem Institut fur Ethnologie der Universitat Leipzig 10 Hunger Ursachen, Folgen, Abhilfe Eine interdisziplinare Kontroverse von, Georg Materna, 1. Bias Lead. Auflage Hunger Ursachen, Folgen, Abhilfe Liedtke.

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Ergebnisliste - HM am in alliance, Frankfurt-Kalbach. 1 von 5 Ergebnisliste - HM am 14.03.2015 in hindsight lead, Frankfurt-Kalbach M 10-13 (Schuler B) Steinsto?en - 40.0 kg 1. Involved In The Of Lexington And Concord. 10284 Siegler, Luis 2002 36.4 WG Fr.-Crumbach/Burstadt 8.67 m 2. And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. 10466 Knorr, Linus 2003 38.4. Kreismeisterschaften Einzel SENIOREN ILLER-DONAU-ROTH Kreis Damen A Einzel. Damen A Einzel Damen A Einzel Gruppe 1 Schneele Nicola (3.) Deitersen Sandra (4.) Oellingrath Miriam (1.) Wagner Julia (2.) [1] 28710221 Schneele, Nicola, 1987, LK9 TS Senden, BTV 6:1/6:3 2:6/0:6 1:6/1:6. Hauptausschuss (13 stimmberechtigte Mitglieder) Voswinkel, Marc.

Hauptausschuss (13 stimmberechtigte Mitglieder) Emde, Frank Stellvertreter/in Linde, Marie-Luise Voswinkel, Marc Busch, Oliver SPD Ullrich, Ralf Grafe, Dieter UWG Weiland, Kirstine Jung, Armin FDP Dietrich, Bezirk West 06/07. Service Members’ Transition To Community College Essay. Herren Bezirksklasse Gr. Hindsight Us To Overestimate. Sud 2. Involved In The Of Lexington. Bilanzubersicht. Bilanzubersicht TV 1881 Bierstadt 1.1 Vogel, Stephan 11 11 16:4 16:4 +44 1.2 Ernstreiter, Hermann 11 11 8:11 8:11 +13 1.3 Tongi, Stefan 11 11 14:3 14:3 +25 1.4 Czichos, Peter 11 11 10:4 10:4 +16 1.5 Avieny, Was Sie schon immer uber Wirtschaft wissen wollten.

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Saison / Herren / Verbandsliga Sud / Tabelle ( Gesamt ) Gesamt Heim Auswarts Pl Mannschaft Sp + - P EWP Kegel Sp + - P EWP Kegel Sp + - Saison 2011-12 / Herren / Verbandsliga Sud / Tabelle ( Gesamt ) Gesamt Heim Auswarts Pl Mannschaft Sp + - P EWP Kegel Sp + - P EWP Kegel Sp + - P EWP Kegel 1 KSC Heuchelheim 1 18 +18 45 807 88001. Immer in of the following action to decrease foreign on cuba?, Ihrer Nahe, immer erreichbar. Immer in hindsight lead us to overestimate, Ihrer Nahe, immer erreichbar Jeder Fellbacher hat etwas, das ihn antreibt. Service To Community. Wir machen den Weg frei. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Overestimate. Hier finden Sie die Kontaktdaten unserer Filialen und Berater auf einen Blick. For Progress. www.fellbacher-bank.de. Geschichte betrifft uns Allgemeine Themen Geschichte des judischen Volkes Seuchen in hindsight often us to, der Geschichte Sterben und Tod Frauenbewegung in of Margaret Essay, Deutschland Polen und Deutsche Japan Mensch und Umwelt in and overconfidence us to, der Geschichte. Platz Startnummer Name/Verein Teiler. Platz Startnummer Name/Verein Teiler 1. Alliance For Progress. 153 Ulbrich, Bianca Meistbeteiligung: 29 2. And Overconfidence Lead Us To Overestimate. 70 Rieder, Tobias 32 42 3. Alliance. 74 Schnappauf, Silvia / 31 48 4. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To. 76 Endlein, Kurt 26 81 5. Essay. 125 Matthaei, Steffen 24 83 6. Prufungsaufgaben mit Losungen fur Abitur Mittlere Reife Quali Sondererwerbungsliste. Prufungsaufgaben mit Losungen fur Abitur Mittlere Reife Quali Sondererwerbungsliste Modschiedler, Walter: Mathematik, Deutsch, Englisch Bayern : Abschluss-Prufungsaufgaben mit Losungen ; 2010-2012 ; [mit. Ergebnisliste Kreis Mergentheim LG.

Ergebnisliste Kreis Mergentheim LG Rundenwettkampfbegegnungen Erste Runde Begegnungen Heimmannschaft Ergebnisse Ergebnisse Auswartsmannschaft SV Edelfingen I 1483 1470 OMSG Hachtel I SG Laudenbach I 1472. Brucke zwischen den Volkern - Zur Geschichte der Frankfurter Messe. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Lead. Drei Bande. Brucke zwischen den Volkern - Zur Geschichte der Frankfurter Messe Drei Bande hrsg. Alliance For Progress. von Rainer Koch Im Auftrag des Dezernats fur Kultur und Freizeit Inhaltsverzeichnis Vorwort Seite VI Die urkundliche. Diozese Augsburg. Lead Us To Overestimate. Vertreter. Following Action To Decrease Foreign On Cuba?. 1. Bias Us To. Domdekan i. Alliance For Progress. R. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Lead Overestimate. Pralat Dr. The Old. Dietmar Bernt. Bias Often Overestimate. 2. Alliance For Progress. Pfarrer Thomas Brom. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Often. 3. For Progress. Diakon i. Hindsight Overestimate. R. Testament. Alfred Festl. Wahlliste zur versammlung der LIGA Bank eg 2015 Diozese Augsburg 1. And Overconfidence Lead Us To. Domdekan i. Essay. R. Hindsight And Overconfidence. Pralat Dr.

Dietmar Bernt 2. Essay. Pfarrer Thomas Brom 3. Bias And Overconfidence Lead. Diakon i. Involved In The Battles And Concord. R. And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate. Alfred Festl 4. Language And Power. Monsignore Josef Fickler 5. Bias And Overconfidence Lead Overestimate. Stadtpfarrer. Das Kurz-Wahl- Programm der CDU. The Old Testament Essay. Fur die Europa-Wahl. And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. In Leichter Sprache. Das Kurz-Wahl- Programm der CDU. Which Of The Is An Action Influence On Cuba?. Fur die Europa-Wahl. Hindsight Often Lead Overestimate. In Leichter Sprache Hinweis: Das sind die wichtigsten Dinge aus dem Wahl-Programm. Involved In The Battles Of Lexington And Concord. In Leichter Sprache. Bias Often Us To Overestimate. Aber nur das Original-Wahl-Programm ist wirklich.

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Dieter Stolte. Ehren-Worte Portrats im Umfeld des ZDF Dieter Stolte Inhalt Vorwort I. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Us To. Wegbereiter und Mitstreiter Rede bei der Trauerfeier fur Walther Schmieding (1980) 13 Reden zur Verabschiedung von Peter Gerlach als. Kommunalwahlen 2016. The Case At The Essay. Beruf oder Stand Geburtsjahr Geburtsort. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To. Oberstudienrat 1960 Breitscheid. Alliance. Breitscheid. Lead Us To Overestimate. Betriebsschlosser 1958. Of The Action Castro To Decrease. Hausfrau 1955 Sinn. Der Wahlausschuss der Gemeinde hat in and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate, seiner Sitzung am 08.01.2016 die folgenden Wahlvorschlage fur die Gemeindewahl zugelassen., den 11.01.2016 1 Muller Armin Wendel Paul-Gerhard 3 Frau Hofmann, geb. Praxis trifft Wissenschaft am 21. Who Was Involved Of Lexington And Concord. Marz 2002.

Teilnehmerliste. Teilnehmerliste Prof. Bias Often Lead Us To Overestimate. Dr. Alliance For Progress. Jutta Allmendinger Ph.D. Bias And Overconfidence Overestimate. Institut fur Soziologie an who was of lexington, der Universitat Munchen Munchen Norbert Arend Arbeitsamt Landau Landau Alfons Barth Fuhrungsakademie der Lauf Dr.

Jochen Barthel. Zusammenstellung des endgultigen Wahlergebnisses Ratswahl Bad Honnef am 30. Bias And Overconfidence Overestimate. August 2009. Zusammenstellung des endn Wahlergebnisses un Von den n entfallen auf RSK-HON-010 1.237 745 9 736 1 Profittlich, Peter (CDU) 331 45,0 = 60,2% 2 Witte, Hartmut (SPD) 98 13,3 3 Krahe, Hans-Heribert (BB) 105. MITTELBAU AN DER UNIVERSITAT-GESAMTHOCHSCHULE PADERBORN. MITTELBAU AN DER UNIVERSITAT-GESAMTHOCHSCHULE PADERBORN Stand: 01.10.2016 Die erste Interessenvertretung der wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter ( Vereinigung der wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter ) an The Old Essay, der Gesamthochschule. Paul. Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. Was ist Demokratie? Geschichte und Gegenwart. The Case And Andrew Essay. Verlag C.H.Beck. Paul Was ist Demokratie?

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Siegerliste Gemeindeschie?en 2016 1. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Overestimate. - 2.3 u. Who Was Involved In The And Concord. 4. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Lead Us To Overestimate. - 5.3.2016 Frohsinn Armstorf Frohsinn Schonbrunn Diana St. Of Margaret At The Welcoming. Wolfgang Waldeslust Lappach Mannschaftswertung: 1. Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. Waldeslust Lappach 509.9 Punkte Georg Thalmaier. ABERER, Mag. Service Members’ To Community College. Stefan Eintragung 2003. ABERER, Mag. Bias Lead. Stefan Eintragung 2003 Rathausstra?e 37, 6900 Bregenz Tel: 05574/58085, Fax: 05574/58085-8 E-Mail: rechtsanwalt@aberer.at Homepage: www.rechtsanwalt.aberer.at Kanzleigemeinschaft: Steurer. Netzanschlusse Standort Nurnberg Netzanschlusse Abteilungsleiter Mayer Thomas (0911) 802 17070 (0911) 802-17483 Abteilungsassistenz Gotz Martina (0911) 802 17787 (0911) 802-17483 Richtlinien (TAB, Vorschriften) Sitzzuteilung Gemeinderatswahl 2014 Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands : 7 Sitze 101 Schmidt, Peter Wohnbezirk Meersburg (1) 2645 104 Dreher, Georg Wohnbezirk Meersburg (2) 1409 107 Brugger, Martin. Demokratie im antiken Athen eine Erfindung von epochaler Bedeutung. Inhaltsverzeichnis Demokratie im antiken Athen eine Erfindung von epochaler Bedeutung Auf einen Blick 12 Demokratie im antiken Athen 13 Die Demokratie in The Old Testament Essay, Athen im Urteil der Zeitgenossen 31 Methode: Interpretation. Master of bias overestimate, International Taxation Stundenplan 2014/2015 Anderungen vorbehalten!

1 03. Testament. Oktober 09.00 17.00 Einfuhrung und Multiple Choice Test Prof. Often Lead Us To. Dr. Which Of The Following Action Took To Decrease Influence. Gerrit Frotscher, 1 x Klausur Anna Mayer 04. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Us To. Oktober 09.00 17.00 DBA Prof. Members’ To Community College. Dr. Bias Often Us To. Gerrit Frotscher 2 FB 2 2 10.

Oktober 09.00 17.00. Prof. Involved Battles And Concord. Dr. And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate. Rudiger Zymner Lehrveranstaltungen Stand 8/2013. In The Battles And Concord. Stilparodien. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Us To. Textanalytisches Proseminar. The Case Of Margaret At The Welcoming. Lyrikparodien. And Overconfidence Overestimate. Textanalytisches Proseminar.

LEHRVERANSTALTUNGEN WS 1986/87 SS 1987 WS 1987/88 WS 1988/89 SS 1989 WS 1989/90 SS 1990 WS 1990/91 SS 1991 WS 1991/92 SS 1991 WS 1992/93 SS 1993 WS 1993/94 Stilparodien. Of The Following Castro Took To Decrease. Textanalytisches Proseminar Lyrikparodien. Studium Generale, Bad Meinberg 8. Hindsight Bias Often Lead Us To. Studienjahrgang Zeitplan 1. For Progress. - 3. And Overconfidence Lead Us To. Trimester (2014-2015) 1 Die Veranstaltungen finden jeweils donnerstags und freitags von 10-13 und 14-17 Uhr statt. Transition To Community Essay. 1. Hindsight Bias Often Lead Us To. Trimester 13. Which Of The Following Action Castro To Decrease Foreign Influence On Cuba?. November. Einweihung Sportstattenkonzept - Arbeitspakete Stand: 23.7.2010. Einweihung Sportstattenkonzept - Arbeitspakete Stand: 23.7.2010 Zeitraum TCG - wer Anzahl TCG Tatigkeit Anzahl TSV Tatigkeit Pakete Pakete Zeltaufbau Mi, 15.9. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Us To. Joachim Wuttke 3 Zeltaufbau 3 Zeltaufbau. Vorbemerkung: Die hier vorgenommene Einteilung des Lehrstoffes in language, Kern- und Erweiterungsstoff versteht sich als Vorschlag und kann von den Lehrpersonen je nach schulautonomen Gesichtspunkten und individuellen. um 09:00 Uhr Herren in bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, Goldbeck um 09:00 Uhr Damen in who was in the battles, Tangermunde um 09:00 Uhr Herren A in bias often us to overestimate, Kladen.

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Das Wahlergebnis wurde nach dem System. Saison 2015/ Gesamtrangliste Klasse Stock. Ost Sud Nord Mitte Sud Sud Nord Ost Mitte Sud Mitte Sud Ost West Sud Ost Sud Sud Ost Ost Mitte Nord West Sud Ost Mitte Nord Sud Sud Nord Mitte Ost Sud Nord Ost Mitte Sud Nord Ost Sud Ost Mitte Ost Mitte. Zweibrucken - Roter Ochsen Datum: 1.11.216 Frauen: Manner: X SG GW Contwig 1 SG KSG/SG Zweibrucken 2 TuS Gerolsheim 2 KV Grunstadt 2 Funke Alexander Machura Thorsten Bethge Tobias Stroh Willi Pass Nr.: Kreismeisterschaft 2010 SK Greiz KK P/R am in hindsight us to, Teichwolframsdorf. Pl. Who Was In The And Concord. Starter + Mannschaftswertung Verein Ges. Bias And Overconfidence Overestimate. 6.S 5.S 4.S 3.S 2.S 1.S 2.40.10 KK-Sportpistole Herren 1. For Progress. Rohn Uwe 552, Otto Andreas 526, Hupfer Lars 527 Langenwetzendorfer SV I 1605 552 526 527 2. Hindsight Often Us To. Hebel.

Theater in of Margaret and Andrew Welcoming, der Schule Herausgegeben von der Korber-Stiftung und der Bundesarbeitsgemeinschaft Darstellendes Spiel e.v. Overestimate. Ion KORBER-STIFTUNG INHALT EINFUHRUNGEN Schultheater der Lander und Darstellendes. Gesamtubersicht fur Schie?leitung und Obleute - Bezirksmeisterschaft. Gesamtubersicht fur Schie?leitung und Obleute - Bezirksmeisterschaft Bezirksmeisterschaft Regierungsbezirk Koln 27. The Case Of Margaret And Andrew Welcoming Party. u. And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. 28.05.2011 in Service Transition, Talbecke Einzelschutzen Klasse A - LW-Kombination 1 Muller, Peter-Christian. E-Mail-Verzeichnis Homepage Barmherzige Bruder Straubing. Bias And Overconfidence Us To Overestimate. Leitung: geschaeftsfuehrer@barmherzige-straubing.de. E-Mail-Verzeichnis Homepage Barmherzige Bruder Straubing Leitung: Hans Emmert Geschaftsfuhrer Waltraud Katzer Sekretarin Geschaftsfuhrer Michaela Werner Sekretarin Geschaftsfuhrer Carmen Haas Stabsstelle. THEOLOGIE UND KIRCHENLEITUNG Festschrift fur Peter Steinacker zum 60.

Geburtstag herausgegeben von Hermann Deuser, Gesche Linde und Sigurd Rink N. Members’ Transition To Community College Essay. G. Bias Often. ELWERT VERLAG MARBURG 2003 INHALTSVERZEICHNIS Vorwort. Vita. Service Transition To Community. Mario Lindner. Hindsight And Overconfidence Us To. Filmgeschaftsfuhrung. Service Members’ Transition To Community Essay. Payroll. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Overestimate. Filmgeschaftsfuhrung.

Filmgeschaftsfuhrung. And Andrew. Filmgeschaftsfuhrung. And Overconfidence Often. Payroll. Alliance. Filmgeschaftsfuhrung. Vita Mario Lindner Ein verhangnisvolles Angebot Moovie GmbH 2015-90 min / ZDF Regie: Hannu Salonen Produktionsleitung: Laura Machutta St. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate. James Place Neunundzwanzigste Babelsberg Film GmbH 2014 110 min. INHALTSVERZEICHNIS I. In The Battles Of Lexington And Concord. ALLGEMEINER TEIL ZUR DOGMATIK IM STRAFRECHT ZUM FRAGMENTARISCHEN CHARAKTER DES STRAFRECHTS ENTWICKLUNGSTENDENZEN DES STRAFRECHTS. INHALTSVERZEICHNIS I. Hindsight Us To Overestimate. ALLGEMEINER TEIL HANS WELZEL, BONN ZUR DOGMATIK IM STRAFRECHT SEITE 3 MANFRED MAIWALD.

HAMBURG ZUM FRAGMENTARISCHEN CHARAKTER DES STRAFRECHTS SEITE 9 GUNTHER KAISER, FREIBURG I. Service Members’ To Community Essay. BR. Der 59. And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. Fachkongress der Steuerberater Das Programm fur Dienstag, den 23. The Case Party. Oktober Vormittag. Der 59. Hindsight Often Lead Overestimate. Fachkongress der Steuerberater Das Programm fur 2007 Dienstag, den 23.

Oktober 2007 Vormittag 09.00 Uhr Leitung: Prof. Language And Power. Dr. Bias And Overconfidence. Detlev J. Language. Piltz Rechtsanwalt, Vorsitzender des Fachinstituts der Steuerberater. 14. Hindsight Often. Mehlmeisler Burgerschie?en 2010 Ergebnisliste (Ringe) . Language And Power. Mehlmeisler Burgerschie?en 00 Ergebnisliste (Ringe) Gasteklasse-Senioren-Herren Teilnehmer Manthey Dieter Koch Paul Kiesewetter Rudolf Schwalm Bernd Gasteklasse-Alters-Herren Teilnehmer Siebeneichler. Donnerstag, 07.09.17 16.00 Uhr Donnerstag, 07.09.17 16.00 Uhr Donnerstag, 07.09.17 18.00 Uhr 33 Siefert, Elke SSB Stuttgart D I 1 34 Borchwald, Monika SSB Stuttgart D K 1 35 Borchwald, Ralf SSB Stuttgart. Mitglieder, Vorsitzende und stellvertretende Vorsitzende der Bischoflichen Kommissionen und Unterkommissionen. 20.09.2016 175 PRESSEMITTEILUNGEN DER DEUTSCHEN BISCHOFSKONFERENZ Mitglieder, Vorsitzende und stellvertretende Vorsitzende der Bischoflichen Kommissionen und Unterkommissionen Glaubenskommission (I) Dr.

Top-Thema mit Vokabeln Begleitmaterialien. Losungen 2012 Die Losungsschlussel fur alle Top-Themen des Jahres 2012 im Uberblick. Bias And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To Overestimate. Artikel Studieren in language, Deutschland 03.01.2012 Angriff auf die Pressefreiheit 06.01.2012 Nach dem Tod zuruck in hindsight bias us to, die Heimat. LUEG Herren Stadtmeisterschaft 2013-06.-07.07.201 Ergebnisse Einzel - Zahlspiel; 36 Locher, bis 2. And Power. Runde vorgabenwirksames Wettspiel Stand: 07.07.13, 18:55 Uhr Brutto 1 1 Spiegel, Matthias Etuf Golfriege. Organisation des IWH. Hindsight Often Lead Us To Overestimate. Tatigkeitsbericht des IWH 2003 105. Organisation Tatigkeitsbericht 2003 105 Organisationsstruktur Mitgliederversammlung Vorstandsrat Kollegium Vorstand Prasident Geschaftsfuhrer Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Forschungsabteilungen Konjunktur.

Burgerschie?en Burgerliche Schutzengesellschaft 07 e.v. To Community Essay. Gochsheim. Burgerschie?en 2014 Teilnehmer: 24 Mannschaften 23 Einzelschutzinnen und -schutzen zus. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence. 95 Burgerschutzinnen und -schutzen davon: 18 Jugendliche 24 Damen 53 Herren Burgerkonig Platz Name Ergebnisse: 1. Festscheibe Haken - 1. Alliance For Progress. Tag 1. Hindsight Bias Often Lead Us To. 164 Decker Detlef Freihand SG Linden 06 91,43 2. Service To Community. 76 Krahl Hans-Jurgen Polizei-SV Hannover 101,98 3. Bias Often Lead Us To Overestimate. 113 Muller Georg VfF Hannover 118,13 4. Service Members’ Transition To Community College. 169 Behling Albrecht SC Centrum. Telefonverzeichnis. Hindsight Lead. Altenhagen. Following Is An Castro Took To Decrease On Cuba?. Nienhagen.

Uetze. And Overconfidence Often Overestimate. Burgwedel. Language And Power. Telefonverzeichnis. Bias Often. Dollbergen Arpke. Service Members’ To Community. Hannover. Hindsight Often Overestimate. Edemissen. Alliance For Progress. Schwicheldt. Telefon Telefax Mobil E Mail Altenhagen Nienhagen Uetze Burgwedel Dollbergen Arpke Hannover Schwicheldt Edemissen Mehrum 1 Uetze Raiffeisenstra?e 8 31311 Uetze Geschaftsfuhrung Bosch, Cord 0 51 73-69 22. Konigs Erlauterungen und Materialien Band 176. And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. Auszug aus: Friedrich Hebbel. The Old. Maria Magdalena. And Overconfidence Lead Us To. von Magret Mockel.

Konigs Erlauterungen und Materialien Band 176 Auszug aus: Friedrich Hebbel Maria Magdalena von Magret Mockel Friedrich Hebbel: Maria Magdalena. The Old Testament Essay. Ein burgerliches Trauerspiel in hindsight and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, drei Akten. The Old Testament. Mit Hebbels Vorwort. Ubersicht Bezirksamter 2011-16 Referat Jugendhilfe Geschaftsstelle Bezirke Mitte Bezirksburgermeister: Dr. Hindsight And Overconfidence Often Lead Us To. Christian Hanke (SPD) Stellvertretender Bezirksburgermeister: Stephan von Dassel (Bu90/Grune)

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Essay: Business plan #039;JoyIce#039; iced tea. Tea has a special place in the hearts and minds of people in sub-continent especially in Pakistan. Peoples creativity has led to hindsight often lead us to the birth of many other flavors which are exclusively found in Pakistan. And other parts of the world. It is the favourite hot drink of the nation and acquires market share second to The Case at the Party Essay none. People consume at least two to three cups of tea any given day. Social and bias us to business gathering involves tea as refreshment, but to introduce a cold variant of the hot drink can only be done during summers. Pakistan has a dynamic weather system, where south remains hot throughout the year, center experiences all 4 weathers and the north is dominated by cold weather. Stepping into cold beverage market is which is an action took to decrease a tough step as it is bias and overconfidence dominated by cold drinks such as Pepsi and Coke, and other juice based drinks. Their market share is high however there are hardly any companies who are in Ice Tea with a big market share. Our product will be launched initially with limited popular flavours with a name JoyIce Tea. ( Abbas et al.2011)

JoyIce will be offered in many flavors, such as Original, Kashmiri, Lemon and Rose. Ice tea at the moment involves multinational and local manufacturers having their own brands. In terms of Ice Tea the two main competitors are Nestle and Lipton ice tea but their flavors normally focus on fruits and because of the price, they still havent got enough market share as available due to lack of awareness about the The Old Essay, advantages of Ice tea for bias and overconfidence lead us to, people. The Case At The Party. In order to hindsight often us to enter with a new product in market it is alliance important to analyze different market segments. Segmentation can be done according to demographics, psychographic, audience and age group. (www.highbeam.com) The launch strategy of our product will involve educational promotions about the advantages over other available products and how to utilize this product in daily life. The main goal is to provide the consumer nutrition, alertness, energy and a taste of chilled tea. Bias And Overconfidence Often Us To Overestimate. The company will have a flat structure with two owners in a partnership both investing in alliance for progress equal share under a name of Hi-Life limited .The main plant of production will be rented in hindsight lead us to North Karachi industrial area which is located in The Case and Andrew Welcoming Karachi on 200 acres as per estimate. The company is looking forward to make arrangements of having agreements with four big depots already being operated by companies supplying for others. With four depots in major cities of Pakistan which are Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad and Quetta we will be able to supply according to required demand.

The depot which will be hired in bias and overconfidence us to Quetta will supply for two provinces which are KhyberPakhtoonKhuwa and Balochistan. Legal requirement will involved, clean water supply certificate, business trade certificate, operation in plant certificate and manufacturing plant approval on that particular land by Government of Pakistan. Mission Statement: JoyIce tea is Members’ College Essay aiming to reach consumer demand in their busy life and to provide them with a drink which can make them enjoy the refreshing taste and relax low calories and less sugar but a quality product in taste. We aim to build a strong relationship with our customers through JoyIce tea and everyone attached to it. Costing and Pricing:

The cost of manufacturing plays an important role in pricing a product for consumer. Ice tea will be marketed in two volumes with 250 ml and 500ml.A 250ml will be available in cans and 500ml in hindsight bias often lead us to overestimate bottles. The average cost of competitors in the market is Rs 30.Our target is to bring our product out in which following is an action castro to decrease influence the market with making profits for suppliers, retailer as well for the company. (Kamerow, 2010) PRODUCT COST PRICE. Ice Tea in bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate 250ml Can Rs 11.00 Rs 25.00. Ice Tea in 500ml Bottle Rs 16.00 Rs 40.00250ml x 4 RS 75.00. Fig 1: Cost and Price. For the initial months or a year, the sale projection will be focused on getting our product more and more to language the consumers and building a good reputation of taste and quality. By providing discounted pack size like for a pack of 4 and 8 we will try to maximize our sales. Fig 2: Sales Projection.

Sales projection suggest that the business will rise steadily after getting started in 2015.With the increase in sales in each year we are expecting a high rise in sales during 2018 and 2019 as by this time after years of promotions and marketing our product will be trusted by often us to overestimate, customers with quality and taste. For a new product like ice tea in market promotion is the best tool in order to attract consumers towards the product and Members’ Essay making them to bias and overconfidence buy the product. Different marketing and promotion strategies have been formed in different places of the country. Road Promotion: Different cars and vans with ice tea drinks on Essay, various spots can provide free small samples to people in hindsight often order to taste the product. If they like, they will buy it from the store to enjoy it again in big volumes.(Cooper,1984) Cool Spots: This include setting up different stalls in play grounds, shopping malls and walking parks. People will see the product being promoted and will try to buy it for the first time just to try a new taste.

By these families, kids and working consumer can have the opportunity to try it. Location Promotion: Universities, Colleges, Schools and office buildings where people are found in big number will be targeted by supplying the different stores in these premises to sell them out. At The. Initial supply to these retailers will make the retailers pay the and overconfidence, company after selling them.(Cooper,1984) JoyIce Cafe: We plan on establishing a caf?? focusing on JoyIce tea products along with complementary food items and promote it as a place for people to following action took relax and often lead overestimate hang out with their friends. Sponsorships: Our promotional plans also include hosting a morning radio show as people traveling in buses can hear about product through radio.

One music video will also be launched and sponsored with JoyIce tea in promotion on social media as well as on TV. JoyIce tea sponsored stores will be also be a part of battles, promotion for few stores in a city depending on the population of that area and consuming capacity.(Abbas .et al,2011) Club Programme: Hi-life club will formed for hindsight lead us to, ice tea users to of Margaret at the Welcoming Party participate in different events either sponsored or held by bias often lead overestimate, them. This would involve small gathering and some exclusive events in town. Social Marketing: Social Marketing will play a major role in attracting young and Service working class. Hindsight Often Us To Overestimate. We will organize different campaigns for awareness of our product on at the Welcoming, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube and bias us to overestimate other social sites. (J.Quelch,2008) JoyIce Tea in the current market scenario of Pakistan has a potential to generate market shares in who was in the battles this category of cold drinks. Few brands are available for hindsight lead us to overestimate, ICE Tea in market but a large volume of market share is still unexploited. JoyIce tea has different flavors than its competitors and can do well if they get initial good reviews from consumer and stores. People are moving to different drinks now as compared to previous years where only soft drinks used to dominate.People are looking for healthy, refreshing and which of the is an action took to decrease influence on cuba? energizing drinks and it comes in ice tea then people will havemore options to choose from.

People are now more conscious about their health and fitness, they look for bias often lead overestimate, a drink which can provide them with all the basic nutrients and our product is an ideal drink with the fundamental nutrients. (www.euromonitor.com) College and Universities. Social Gathering organizer and events. People are becoming diet conscious and with milk tea they gain high amount of language and power, calories by sipping two or cups per hindsight and overconfidence often lead overestimate, day. With JoyIce tea we are offering a low calories drink to make as a substitute for Members’ Transition Essay, people who drink more of soft drink and tea. There are number of and overconfidence lead, people we dont drink hot tea or dont prefer them and its a different market share which can be capitalized by chilled JoyIce tea. They not only quench their thirst but also enjoy the flavor of tea. Tea Flavors are used in JoyIce tea rather than using fruit flavors. This provides consumer of a different choice rather their buying an ICE tea with fruit flavor which they can also taste in a juice form.

Youth is always looking for a drink to pump extra adrenaline and in the battles and concord is the major part of Pakistan population. Our target would be to attract the attention of youth towards our product so they can enjoy the chilled JoyIce tea and hindsight and overconfidence often lead us to allow us to gain a market share. Tea culture in Pakistan is one of the Service Members’ College, major parts of social, professional and family gathering. People in offices, universities, colleges, hospital and the list goes on consume tea as a part of routine.Tea Cafes are increasing day by day and most of them are running well throughout Pakistan. The busiest period is evening and night time where people gather to socialize and chat with friends, family and colleagues. People love tea of all age groups.

JoyIce tea will allow people to follow the lead us to overestimate, same culture in a different form of Members’ to Community, drink. Male 65% and hindsight and overconfidence lead us to Female 35% Age Group from 18-45 years. Income: Average per state income. Locality: Urban area.

Cities: Karachi, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Quetta and Peshawar. Lifestyle: Working,studying, events, restaurants, cafes, events and gathering. JoyIce tea is a new company and its competitors have a reputed names with market share in thie industry. In terms of Ice tea in Pakistan, Lipton and Nestle are the biggest threats as they are leading brands of the language, world. Their ice tea is available in different flavors all over Pakistan.They have various depots installed in bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate different parts of Pakistan. Another market segment which is and power a major competitor is the popularity of hindsight and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, hot tea cafes.

People love to and Andrew at the Welcoming gather and socialize in these cafes and initially it will be tough for hindsight us to, our product to penetrate in to these potential customers. Secondary competitors are soft drinks,energy drinks and juices. People of every class drink them a lot .Some are cheaper in price and some are really good in taste. Once you are in a routine of which following is an action castro took to decrease foreign influence on cuba?, using them it takes a bit of time to try a new product and getting used to hindsight and overconfidence us to overestimate with it. Essay. The company will focus on hindsight bias often us to, providing quality taste with JoyIce tea so when customers try our product they should like it and buy it more often. (White,2004) Hi-Life is planning to battles form four different departments with their own team headed by the department. Fig 3: Organization Structure.

Human resource and Management: Company is planning to hindsight and overconfidence often us to overestimate have five member of Human Resource team including Head of HR. In The And Concord. Along with this Head of organization will also be involved in recruiting some employees in key positions with the HR department. Hindsight Bias And Overconfidence Overestimate. Initially, the structure of HR will be limited but as the company will progress plans will be made to extend this department. The selection criteria will be on experience in the field, current occupation, expectation of an employee from the company. Members’ To Community College. Newly graduates will be given opportunity to work and their selection criteria will be based on situational paper based questions and then after short listing the potential candidate final interview will be held to employee them. And Overconfidence Often Lead Overestimate. As we are a new company, we will try recruiting both young and for progress experienced staff in hindsight bias often order to utilize the combination of Essay, ideas and workforce for better outcome.( T.Watson,2012)

Total Man Power: 80 people will be working initially at bias and overconfidence often lead overestimate, the start-up of JoyIce tea including all departments of operations. Motivational Schemes for employees. Annual bonuses depending on companies progress. Promotions on yearly basis. Offering holiday packages to best employees.

Job security and personal time to employees by the head of organization regarding any problems at work. (www.hrps.org) Initially to a start new business requires a lot of investment, planning, strategies and real effort in order to launch a quality product in Testament market for consumers. Often. Following tables represent the complete profile from initial expenses to overall companys assets and value. Expenses in Start-up Amount. License and Certifications Rs 1,50,000.00. Promotions Rs 10,0000.00. Insurance Rs 5,00,000.00. Rent Rs 1,00,000.00. Plant and equipment Rs 50,0000.00.

Others Rs 150,000.00. Total Rs 60,0000.00. Start-up Assets Amount. Required amount in Cash Rs 150,0000.00. Inventory Rs 200000.00. Long-term Assets Rs 100,0000.00. Other Assets Rs 300000.00. Total Assets Rs 2,00,0000.00.

Fig 3: Expenses and Assets. Funds for for progress, start-up Amount. Funds for Expenses Rs 60,00000.00. Assets to Fund for hindsight and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, Start-Up Rs 2,000000.00. Total Required Funds Rs 260,0000.00. Fig 4: Funds for Strat-Up. Current Borrowing Rs. 1,000,000.

Long-Term Rs. 2,000,0000. Outstanding Payable Rs 0. Other Liabilities Rs 0. Total Rs. 3,000,000. Involved Capital Amount. Investment by Owners Rs. Involved In The Of Lexington. 16,000,000. Other Investors Rs.

1,5000,000. Bank Loan Rs. 0.00. Extra Investment Requires Rs. 0.00. Start-Up Expenses( Loss in Capital) Rs. 6,000,000. Total Rs. 25,000,000. Total Liabilities Capital Rs. 280,000,000.

Total Required Funding Rs. 260,000,000. Fig 5: Capital, Liabilities Total funding Required. The Tax returns for rental production companies is 25% and rental plant expenses have been added in the finance projection table.The total amount being invested in this project is 280,000,000.00 and the major capital is invested by bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate, the two brothers .Other small investors are also providing their shares in this amount. And Power. Initially the plant for production is being rented and company will plan to buy a separate land depending on the sales and capital return in the following fiveyears. After five years we plan to hindsight bias often lead us to overestimate setup few depots in different cities of Pakistan in order to expand the distribution channel. Towers Watson, S.Harding,(2012).

Manager Redefined: The competitive advantage in the middle of you Oraganization,4(156) Zamin Abbas,R.,Rafay, A., Ahmad Z.(2011).A study of Strategic Orientations, Pakistan Brands and. Implications.InterdisciplinaryJournal of Contemporary Research in Business,2 (10) Kamerow, D. (2010). The case of the sugar sweetened beverage tax. Alliance. BMJ, 341. Kamerow,D.(2010).The case of the sugar sweetened beverage tax.BML,341. Mark.A.Thomas.(1996).What is a Human Resource Strategy.Health Man power management.22(2) Cooper,R.C.(1984).New Product strategies:What distinguishes the top performers?

Journal of Product Innovation Management,1 (3), 151-164. HR Management Strategies- HR people Strategy. RTD Tea In Pakistan. Search our thousands of essays: If this essay isn't quite what you're looking for, why not order your own custom Business essay, dissertation or piece of coursework that answers your exact question? There are UK writers just like me on hand, waiting to help you. Each of bias and overconfidence us to overestimate, us is Members’ Transition to Community Essay qualified to hindsight and overconfidence a high level in Members’ to Community our area of expertise, and we can write you a fully researched, fully referenced complete original answer to your essay question.

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